本文關(guān)鍵詞：項目治理風(fēng)險的網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力分析　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：項目治理是為項目管理提供目標(biāo)、資源和制度環(huán)境的過程,用以保證利益相關(guān)方產(chǎn)生穩(wěn)定的、符合要求的行為,項目治理風(fēng)險表現(xiàn)為利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的可能性、影響程度和可管理程度。利益相關(guān)方及其關(guān)系形成組織維度的項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò),該網(wǎng)絡(luò)對利益相關(guān)方行為產(chǎn)生影響,項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)可用以分析利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的可能性和可管理程度;同時,利益相關(guān)方行為作用于任務(wù)維度的風(fēng)險因素,風(fēng)險因素水平可來表征利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的影響程度。因此,在對項目治理風(fēng)險進行分析和管控時,需綜合考慮項目組織維度和任務(wù)維度。然而,當(dāng)前項目治理風(fēng)險分析方法局限于組織或者任務(wù)中的某個維度。其中,組織維度的治理風(fēng)險分析方法以社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析(SNA,Social Network Analysis)為代表,SNA通過概念化的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)模型來刻畫主體間關(guān)系,可對治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)進行靜態(tài)量化評價,并根據(jù)量化結(jié)果提出風(fēng)險管控策略。但是組織維度的治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)由于受到任務(wù)維度風(fēng)險因素的影響而隨著項目推進動態(tài)變化,SNA靜態(tài)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)量化評價方式不符合項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的動態(tài)性;同時,SNA無法分析任務(wù)維度風(fēng)險因素水平的變化,故不能評價利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的影響程度。任務(wù)維度的治理風(fēng)險分析方法以系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)(SD,System Dynamics)方法為代表,SD方法具有探究系統(tǒng)要素因果關(guān)系和演化過程的功能,可分析風(fēng)險因素在項目生命周期內(nèi)的動態(tài)變化,并基于風(fēng)險因素的靈敏度分析結(jié)果提出風(fēng)險管控策略。但是SD方法不能有效刻畫項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò),無法將風(fēng)險管控角色與相應(yīng)的利益相關(guān)方對應(yīng),導(dǎo)致管控策略的實施缺乏有效的組織基礎(chǔ),SD無法有效分析利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的可管理程度。可見,現(xiàn)有的項目治理風(fēng)險分析方法主要側(cè)重組織或任務(wù)中的某個維度,無法對利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的可能性、影響程度和可管理程度進行整體分析,因此需要一種能夠打通組織維度和任務(wù)維度的治理風(fēng)險分析方法。本文將SNA和SD結(jié)合而提出網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力分析(NDA,Network Dynamic Analysis)方法。NDA綜合考慮了項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)和風(fēng)險因素,打通了項目的組織和任務(wù)兩個維度,提高了治理風(fēng)險分析的準(zhǔn)確性和管控的有效性。NDA方法的實現(xiàn)需要解決概念、原理、工具和應(yīng)用過程等基本問題,因此本文對相關(guān)概念進行梳理、拓展和細(xì)化以奠定NDA的概念基礎(chǔ),探究治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的要素、構(gòu)建方法和動力過程機理以闡明NDA的基本原理,設(shè)計相應(yīng)的算法并編寫程序以為NDA提供數(shù)理分析工具,設(shè)計NDA的治理風(fēng)險輔助決策流程并將其應(yīng)用到協(xié)同創(chuàng)新項目中以展示NDA的應(yīng)用過程。具體研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)基本概念辨析本文在梳理現(xiàn)有研究和分析NDA特點的基礎(chǔ)上,對項目治理和項目治理風(fēng)險的概念進行辨析。在項目治理概念辨析中,為適應(yīng)NDA分析的網(wǎng)絡(luò)性和動態(tài)性特點,本文結(jié)合動態(tài)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)兩個角度細(xì)化項目治理含義:在項目立項階段確定整體的項目目標(biāo)和實現(xiàn)方式,構(gòu)造和調(diào)整初始治理網(wǎng)絡(luò),設(shè)置項目過程中階段治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整規(guī)則;在項目過程中不斷明確和調(diào)整具體的項目目標(biāo)和實現(xiàn)方式。在項目治理風(fēng)險概念辨析中,本文從更能體現(xiàn)管理學(xué)價值和項目特點的"人"的角度,選擇"利益相關(guān)方不確定行為的可能性、影響程度和可管理程度"作為治理風(fēng)險的概念,并根據(jù)項目的獨特性和臨時性特點將利益相關(guān)方行為界定為"圍繞項目風(fēng)險因素管控而開展的系列活動"。(2)項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)要素分析和構(gòu)建該部分包括網(wǎng)絡(luò)要素分析、網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法兩部分內(nèi)容,其中網(wǎng)絡(luò)要素分析是提出網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法的前提。本文在網(wǎng)絡(luò)要素分析部分探討了網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系分類和網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點界定兩個問題。由于項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響利益相關(guān)方行為,因此本文基于利益相關(guān)方行為影響因素對網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系進行分類:首先通過文獻分析方法整理歸納現(xiàn)有研究中關(guān)系的維度,然后探究利益相關(guān)方行為的影響因素,進而通過關(guān)聯(lián)影響因素和不同維度關(guān)系的方式對網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系進行分類,最終將網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系分為溝通關(guān)系和控制關(guān)系。同時,本文根據(jù)關(guān)系分類結(jié)果將項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)分為溝通網(wǎng)絡(luò)和控制網(wǎng)絡(luò)。治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)中存在不同"粒度"的節(jié)點,例如企業(yè)、部門、團隊、個人,界定網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點的"粒度"是將現(xiàn)實中的利益相關(guān)方轉(zhuǎn)化為治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點的前提。本文基于SNA中"節(jié)點具有刺激反應(yīng)一致性"的假設(shè),結(jié)合關(guān)系分類結(jié)果提出節(jié)點界定規(guī)則:以利益相關(guān)方內(nèi)部信息傳遞有效、內(nèi)部目標(biāo)統(tǒng)一作為網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點界定標(biāo)準(zhǔn),將未達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的利益相關(guān)方拆分,重復(fù)拆分過程直到新利益相關(guān)方滿足上述標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點和關(guān)系均與風(fēng)險因素相關(guān),項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形成具有風(fēng)險因素依賴性,本文據(jù)此設(shè)計了治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法。構(gòu)建方法的步驟包括:通過構(gòu)建風(fēng)險分解結(jié)構(gòu)、界定利益相關(guān)方風(fēng)險管控角色來識別網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點,通過分析節(jié)點之間的溝通關(guān)系、控制關(guān)系以識別網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系,通過設(shè)計基于最優(yōu)最劣方法(BWM)的關(guān)系強度判定過程而對網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系進行量化。(3)項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力過程機理該部分通過分析項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)、利益相關(guān)方行為、風(fēng)險因素間的影響關(guān)系來探究項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力過程機理。利益相關(guān)方行為對風(fēng)險因素的影響�，F(xiàn)有研究將項目治理角色分為規(guī)劃、操作、維護、監(jiān)督四類,本文據(jù)此劃分利益相關(guān)方行為類型并探究了不同行為之間、行為與風(fēng)險因素之間的關(guān)系。其中,本文采用利益相關(guān)方行為與治理主體行為的一致性作為利益相關(guān)方行為評價指標(biāo),采用分布函數(shù)的均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差作為風(fēng)險因素分析指標(biāo),并建立了兩類指標(biāo)間的數(shù)理關(guān)系。風(fēng)險因素對治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響。風(fēng)險因素水平過高將引起利益相關(guān)方對治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的調(diào)整,根據(jù)調(diào)整的時機可將網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整分為初始項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整和階段項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整兩個類型。本文分析了治理主體調(diào)整初始治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)和設(shè)定階段治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整規(guī)則的過程,并探究了利益相關(guān)方在項目過程中基于風(fēng)險因素水平和網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整規(guī)則而對階段項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)進行調(diào)整的過程。治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)對利益相關(guān)方行為的影響。本文通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)密度、節(jié)點網(wǎng)絡(luò)距離、平均網(wǎng)絡(luò)距離等指標(biāo)量化溝通網(wǎng)絡(luò)和控制網(wǎng)絡(luò),并建立了上述指標(biāo)與利益相關(guān)方行為評價指標(biāo)間的數(shù)理關(guān)系。(4)項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力過程模擬算法該部分通過算法的設(shè)計、實現(xiàn)和測試等過程為NDA提供數(shù)理分析工具。首先,基于拓展后的治理概念、治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)要素分析結(jié)果和網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力過程機理明確算法的基本假設(shè),以此作為算法結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計、關(guān)鍵變量取值分析、算法測試等內(nèi)容的依據(jù)。其次,按照網(wǎng)絡(luò)動力過程機理設(shè)計算法結(jié)構(gòu),分析算法結(jié)構(gòu)中不同模塊的功能和模塊間數(shù)據(jù)傳遞關(guān)系,并據(jù)此設(shè)計具體的算法流程。然后,根據(jù)算法流程在Matlab平臺上編寫相應(yīng)的程序,程序編寫過程中關(guān)注了程序查錯、程序運行速度提升、輸入輸出模塊化等問題的解決;同時,根據(jù)算法假設(shè)分析結(jié)構(gòu)變量的取值,并通過示例展示了算法程序的運行過程。最后,參考SD模型檢驗方法對算法進行測試,包括算法行為測試、極端情況測試和敏感性測試。(5)案例應(yīng)用本文選擇治理風(fēng)險較高的工業(yè)技術(shù)研究院協(xié)同創(chuàng)新項目作為案例,首先設(shè)計了 NDA輔助項目治理風(fēng)險管控決策的流程,然后按照流程對案例進行分析。案例應(yīng)用具體過程如下:首先基于治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法得到溝通網(wǎng)絡(luò)和控制網(wǎng)絡(luò),并獲得其他變量的取值;然后圍繞項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的調(diào)整設(shè)計風(fēng)險管控策略,并通過仿真模擬過程分析策略的效果和成本;進而根據(jù)治理主體的風(fēng)險閾值和管控成本要求確定"滿意"的策略;最后總結(jié)了 NDA案例應(yīng)用過程中存在的問題并提出了相應(yīng)的改進措施。本文創(chuàng)新點主要有:(1)提出了用于項目治理風(fēng)險分析和管控的NDA方法。項目治理風(fēng)險的分析和管控需要打通組織和任務(wù)兩個維度,但是以SNA為代表的組織維度方法和以SD為代表的任務(wù)維度方法往往局限于單一維度,從而影響了治理風(fēng)險分析的準(zhǔn)確性和管控的有效性。本文結(jié)合SNA網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析能力和SD風(fēng)險因素動態(tài)分析能力而提出了 NDA方法,為項目治理風(fēng)險研究提供了新的、更加有效的數(shù)理分析方法。(2)結(jié)合"網(wǎng)絡(luò)"和"動態(tài)"兩個角度拓展和細(xì)化項目治理概念。NDA方法具有"網(wǎng)絡(luò)"性和"動態(tài)"性,雖然現(xiàn)有研究分別從"網(wǎng)絡(luò)"和"動態(tài)"兩個角度界定了項目治理概念,但是未將兩個角度有效結(jié)合。因此,本文結(jié)合上述兩個角度對現(xiàn)有的項目治理概念進行拓展和細(xì)化,為NDA的實現(xiàn)提供概念基礎(chǔ)并豐富了項目治理理論。(3)針對項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的特殊性設(shè)計了網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法。項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)具有節(jié)點多層次性、風(fēng)險因素依賴性等特點,"滾雪球"法等現(xiàn)有的網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法與上述特點不符,從而影響了網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建的準(zhǔn)確性和效率。因此,本文針對項目治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)的特殊性設(shè)計了網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法。本文提出的NDA方法在理論上為項目治理風(fēng)險研究提供了新的思路和數(shù)理分析工具,可為實踐中的治理風(fēng)險管控決策提供輔助支持。治理概念的拓展、治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系的分類等內(nèi)容豐富了項目治理理論,網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點界定規(guī)則、治理網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建方法提高了 SNA的適用性。本文研究不足主要有:通過文獻分析和演繹推理的形式對網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系進行分類,尚未基于實證研究來驗證分類結(jié)果;網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)整形式中主要分析了網(wǎng)絡(luò)關(guān)系強度變化等主要形式,而未考慮關(guān)系方向改變和節(jié)點變動等形式。
[Abstract]:Project governance is a process to provide objectives, resources and system environment for project management, so as to ensure stakeholders to produce stable and consistent behavior. Project governance risk is manifested as the possibility, degree of influence and manageability of stakeholders' uncertain behavior. Stakeholders and the relationship between the formation of the dimension of organization project management network, the influence of the network of stakeholders, project management network can be used to analyze the stakeholder uncertain behavior possibility and management level; at the same time, the stakeholders act on the risk factors of task dimension, risk factors to characterize the interest level related party does not determine the degree of influence behavior. Therefore, in the analysis and control of the risk of project governance, the dimension of the project organization and the task dimension should be considered. However, the current approach to the risk analysis of project governance is limited to a certain dimension in the organization or task. Among them, the dimension of organization governance risk analysis method in social network analysis (SNA Social, Network Analysis) as the representative of network structure model of SNA by conceptualization to describe the relationship between the subject, through static quantitative evaluation of network governance, and puts forward the risk control strategy according to the quantitative results. But the network governance dimensions due to the impact of risk factors and the task dimension with the project to promote the dynamic change of network evaluation mode SNA static does not comply with the dynamic project management network; at the same time, SNA is not the variation of the task dimension of risk factors, so it can not evaluate the stakeholders do not determine the degree of influence behavior. The task dimension governance risk analysis methods based on system dynamics (SD System Dynamics) method as the representative, the SD method has the inquiry system causal factors and the evolution process of the function, can dynamic change analysis of risk factors in the project life cycle, and based on the sensitivity analysis of the risk factors put forward risk control strategies. However, the SD method can not effectively describe project governance network, which can not correspond to the risk management role and the corresponding stakeholders, resulting in the lack of effective organizational foundation for the implementation of control strategy. SD can not effectively analyze the manageability of stakeholders' uncertain behavior. Therefore, the existing project management risk analysis method mainly focuses on some dimensions of organizational or task, the influence degree of possibility, to stakeholders of uncertain behavior and management level of the overall analysis, there is a need for the ability to open up the organizational dimension and the task dimension of governance risk analysis method. In this paper, SNA and SD are combined to propose the NDA (Network Dynamic Analysis) method. NDA comprehensively considered the project governance network and risk factors, and cleared the two dimensions of the organization and task of the project, which improved the accuracy of the risk analysis and the effectiveness of the control. NDA method to realize the need to solve the basic problems of concept, principle, tools and application process, so this paper on the related concept of carding, development and refinement in order to lay the foundation of NDA concept, the principle of network governance elements, construction method and dynamic mechanism to clarify the NDA base, design the corresponding algorithm and programming thought NDA provides a mathematical analysis tool, governance risk decision-making process design of NDA and its application to the collaborative innovation project to demonstrate the application process of NDA. The specific research contents are as follows: (1) the basic concepts are analyzed. Based on the existing research and analysis of the characteristics of NDA, this paper analyzes the concept of project governance and project governance risk. In the project management concepts, to adapt to the NDA network analysis and dynamic characteristics, combining with the two aspects of detailed project dynamic and network governance meaning: determine the overall project objectives and implementation of the project in the construction stage, and adjust the initial design phase of the process of network governance, project governance rules in network adjustment; in the process of constantly clear and adjust the specific project objectives and implementation. In the analysis of the concept of risk in project management, the management can better reflect the value and characteristics of the project of "people" point of view, select the possibility and stakeholders of uncertain behavior influence degree and management level "as a concept of governance risk, and stakeholder behavior is defined as" a series of activities around the project management and control the risk factors and carry out according to the special and temporary project". (2) project governance network elements analysis and construction. This part includes two parts: network elements analysis and network construction method. Network element analysis is the premise of network construction method. In this paper, two problems of network relationship classification and network node definition are discussed in the part of network element analysis. Because the project stakeholders influence the governance of network behavior, so the factors based on the stakeholder behavior classification of network relations: firstly summarize the relationship existing in the dimension through the literature analysis method, then explore the effects of stakeholder behavior factors, and then through the correlation factors and the relationship between the different dimensions of classification of network, network relationship will eventually divided into communication and control relation. At the same time, this paper divides the project management network into a communication network and a control network according to the result of the relationship classification. There are different "granularity" nodes in the network, such as enterprises, departments, teams and individuals. Defining the granularity of the network nodes is the premise to transform the real stakeholders into governance nodes. In this paper, SNA "has a node based on stimulus response consistency" hypothesis, combined with the classification results of new node definition rules: to stakeholders internal information effectively and internal unity of purpose as a network node is defined in the standard, stakeholders will not reach the standard split, split the process repeated until the new interest
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F424.3

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