本文關鍵詞：中國對外直接投資對母國能源消費影響研究　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 對外直接投資 能源消費 資源尋求 逆向技術溢出 吸收能力

【摘要】：按照國家發(fā)展規(guī)劃,到“十三五”末國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和城鄉(xiāng)居民人均收入比2010年翻一番,這意味著為實現(xiàn)全面建設小康社會的目標,“十三五”時期年均經(jīng)濟增速不低于6.5%。與此同時,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進入新常態(tài)時期,進入由重速度向重質(zhì)量和效益、由重數(shù)量向重結構調(diào)整和轉型的關鍵發(fā)展階段,然而經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)增長與結構性調(diào)整都需要充足的高品質(zhì)資源環(huán)境配套,但當前我國能源市場供需失衡愈發(fā)嚴重,為了突破資源約束,同時為了提高能源利用效率,就要充分利用“兩種資源、兩個市場”,實現(xiàn)互利共贏、共同發(fā)展。供給側結構性改革使得國內(nèi)要素比較優(yōu)勢也隨之發(fā)生變化,加之對外貿(mào)易與投資格局不斷演變,尤其是當前“一帶一路”建設、國際產(chǎn)能合作背景下,國內(nèi)企業(yè)走出去內(nèi)生動力逐步增強。本文主要探究對外直接投資對我國能源消費的作用機制及影響效應兩方面問題,具體研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)首先分析當前能源消費現(xiàn)狀存在消費總量高、能源供需缺口擴大、消費結構偏高碳化、消費效率較低的問題,使能源消費對經(jīng)濟增長的約束日益嚴峻。然后梳理我國對外直接投資發(fā)展歷程,結合對外投資行業(yè)選擇、區(qū)位分布等不同角度,對當前境外投資發(fā)展狀態(tài)及未來趨勢進行客觀評價,指出國內(nèi)企業(yè)將“兩個市場、兩種資源”為我所用,將為國內(nèi)能源發(fā)展提供新的可能性。(2)研究作用機制方面,首先從兩個角度探究直接作用機制:鑒于各類對外投資企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營可直接利用當?shù)刭Y源,基于能源供求機制,從投資行業(yè)視角和國內(nèi)能源價格視角分析對外直接投資對母國能源消費的直接供求作用;然后鑒于能源類企業(yè)可直接投資資源稟賦豐裕國而獲得能源資源,通過異質(zhì)性成本-固定市場進入成本模型探究對外投資的資源偏好傾向。之后分別基于經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級、進出口貿(mào)易和技術進步四類傳導變量解析了外直接投資對能源消費的間接作用機制。(3)由于對外直接投資會對母國能源消費產(chǎn)生復雜影響,在實證內(nèi)容方面將重點探究其對能源消費總量、結構、效率的具體影響效應。首先研究對外直接投資對能源消費總量的影響效果,運用VAR模型結合因果分析發(fā)現(xiàn)對外直接投資對國內(nèi)能源消費變化更加敏感,對外直接投資將伴隨國內(nèi)能源消費同向漲落。繼而運用引力模型和資源缺口模型驗證了我國存在資源尋求傾向,并且對外直接投資可有效彌補國內(nèi)資源短缺。最后基于宏觀角度構建Tapio脫鉤分解模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者整體存在弱脫鉤關系。(4)然后探究對外直接投資對母國能源消費結構的影響效應。運用結構方程模型,提出研究假設,構建能源消費結構、對外直接投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、經(jīng)濟增長潛變量、內(nèi)部可測變量以及潛變量和可測變量間的結構關系,進行路徑擬合分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是直接路徑還是間接路徑,對外直接投資均負向作用于國內(nèi)能源消費,其中煤炭消費降幅最大,其次是石油消費,說明我國對外直接投資有利于節(jié)約國內(nèi)能源資源并優(yōu)化能源消費結構。(5)最后從發(fā)展中國家對外直接投資存在技術尋求動機的角度出發(fā),定量分析對外直接投資逆向技術溢出與能源消費效率之間的關系,并就母國逆向技術吸收能力以及區(qū)域化逆向技術差異對能源效率的調(diào)節(jié)作用進行系統(tǒng)測算,發(fā)現(xiàn)逆向技術溢出每提高1個百分點,能源消費效率將提升0.051個百分點。然而,無論是全國樣本還是分區(qū)域樣本,在考慮吸收能力情況下的逆向技術溢出節(jié)能效應均較為微弱亦或阻礙能效提升,并且區(qū)域范圍差異也呈現(xiàn)出不確定性技術吸收效果,說明當前我國技術吸收能力較為薄弱,未來要注重縮小同發(fā)達國家技術差距。
[Abstract]:According to the national development plan, to the "13th Five-Year" at the end of GDP and per capita income more than doubled in 2010, which means that to achieve the goal of building a well-off society, "13th Five-Year" period average annual economic growth rate of not less than 6.5%. At the same time, the domestic economic development has entered a new normal period, entered by the speed to quality and efficiency, the key stage of development from quantity to structural adjustment and transformation, but steady economic growth and structural adjustment will need plenty of high-quality resources supporting environment, but the current imbalance between supply and demand of China's energy market has become more and more serious, in order to break through the resource constraints, and in order to improve the efficiency of energy utilization, it should make full use of "two resources and two markets", to achieve mutual benefit and common development. The supply side structural reform makes the domestic factors of comparative advantage are changed, and the foreign trade and investment patterns of continuous evolution, especially the "The Belt and Road" construction, international cooperation capacity under the background, the domestic enterprises to enhance endogenous power gradually out of the. This paper mainly explores the effect of foreign direct investment mechanism and the impact on China's energy consumption in two aspects, the specific contents are as follows: (1) the first analysis of the current consumption, high expansion, energy supply and demand gap of consumption structure, high efficiency of carbide consumption problem of low energy consumption status, the energy consumption of the increasingly serious economic growth restriction. Then combing the development process of China's foreign direct investment, combined with different angles of foreign investment industry selection, location distribution, the objective evaluation of the current status and future trend of the development of overseas investment, pointed out that the domestic enterprises will be "two markets and two resources" it will provide new possibilities for the development of domestic energy. (2) study mechanism, first from two perspectives to explore the direct mechanism: in view of overseas operation of foreign investment enterprises of various types of direct use of local resources, energy supply and demand mechanism based on supply and demand analysis of direct effect of foreign direct investment on home energy consumption from the investment perspective and the domestic energy prices and energy perspective; in view of enterprise direct investment in natural resources and abundant country access to energy resources, through the study on the foreign investment into the cost model of heterogeneous cost - fixed market resources preference. Then, based on the four conduction variables of economic growth, industrial upgrading, import and export trade and technological progress, the indirect mechanism of external direct investment on energy consumption is analyzed. (3) due to the complex impact of foreign direct investment on the energy consumption of the home country, we will focus on the specific impact of energy consumption on total energy consumption, structure and efficiency in empirical content. First, we study the effect of foreign direct investment on total energy consumption. Using VAR model and causal analysis, we find that outward direct investment is more sensitive to domestic energy consumption and foreign direct investment will be accompanied by domestic energy consumption in the same direction. Then the gravity model and resource gap model have been used to verify the tendency of resource seeking in China, and foreign direct investment can effectively make up for the shortage of domestic resources. Finally, the Tapio decoupling decomposition model is constructed on the basis of macro angle, and the weak decoupling relationship is found in the two. (4) then explore the impact of FDI on the energy consumption structure of the home country. By using the structural equation model, put forward the research hypothesis, building energy consumption structure, foreign direct investment, industrial structure, economic growth, internal latent variables, measurable variables and latent variables and measurable structure relation between variables, path fitting analysis, it is found that the direct path and indirect path of foreign direct investment have negative effect in the domestic energy consumption, coal consumption fell the most, followed by oil consumption, shows that China's foreign direct investment is conducive to saving domestic energy resources and optimize energy consumption structure. (5) from the angle of foreign direct investment in developing countries are seeking motivation of technology, quantitative analysis of the relationship between foreign direct investment and reverse technology spillover efficiency of energy consumption, and the reverse technology absorptive capacity and home area measurement system to regulate the energy efficiency of reverse technology differences, found that each increase of 1 percentage points in reverse technology spillover efficiency, energy consumption will increase by 0.051 percentage points. However, regardless of the national or regional sample sample, considering the effect of reverse technology spillover energy absorption capability in the case are relatively weak or hinder the efficiency, and regional differences also show the uncertainty of technology absorption effect, indicating that the current technology absorption capacity is weak, the future should pay attention to narrow the technology in developed countries the gap.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6
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本文編號：1338564