【摘要】：城市熱環(huán)境是城市生態(tài)環(huán)境的重要組成部分,城鎮(zhèn)化在空間上體現(xiàn)為自然景觀被城市景觀替代的過程,城市持續(xù)擴張和自然綠地面積減少引發(fā)城市生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化,尤其是城市熱環(huán)境惡化,使得人居環(huán)境品質降低和建筑空調能耗增大的問題越來越嚴峻。建立氣候變化和城市擴張背景下的城市熱環(huán)境模擬方法,準確預測不同城市發(fā)展情景下的熱環(huán)境分布格局,對實現(xiàn)熱環(huán)境格局優(yōu)化的城市空間擴張策略和城市生態(tài)空間構建具有重要意義。本研究建立了基于精細化土地利用數(shù)據(jù)的中尺度氣候模擬軟件WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)耦合單層城市冠層模型UCM(Urban Canopy Model)模擬方法,多學科結合的開展了城鎮(zhèn)化和氣候變化雙重背景下城市熱環(huán)境格局模擬預測研究。首先,通過對精細化土地利用數(shù)據(jù)的提取,物理過程參數(shù)化方案的確定和UCM內城市參數(shù)的設定三部分內容的研究,建立基于精細化土地利用數(shù)據(jù)的WRF耦合UCM的熱環(huán)境模擬方法。對比2-m空氣溫度、10-m風速等熱環(huán)境參數(shù)的模擬結果與觀測結果,二者具有較好的一致性,驗證了所建立的模擬方法用于城市熱環(huán)境模擬的可靠性。其次,引入元胞自動機-馬爾科夫鏈模型建立城市擴張預測模型,建立了基于區(qū)域約束條件下的城市沿沿南北方向和東西方向以高、中、低密度擴張的6個城市擴張情景。同時模擬了基于區(qū)域約束條件的廣州沿南北方向和東西方向以高、中、低密度擴張生成的6個城市理想擴張情景的熱環(huán)境分布格局,實現(xiàn)了城市用地擴張下城市不同建設密度等多約束條件下的城市熱環(huán)境模擬并提出不同情景下基于熱環(huán)境優(yōu)化的城市空間發(fā)展格局策略。第三,模擬預測未來氣候變化背景下城市熱環(huán)境水平。運用全球模式MIROC_4.0Hires嵌套WRF/UCM進行動力降尺度模擬,預估了IPCC中SRES A1B排放情景下2032年的廣州地區(qū)城市熱環(huán)境。模擬結果表明廣州地區(qū)2032年的日間溫度較2012年升高最高約2℃,且城市空氣溫度空間分布特征發(fā)生變化。最后,構建氣候變化和城市擴張雙重背景下城市熱環(huán)境模擬體系。模擬預測了城市擴張和氣候變化雙重背景下2032年廣州分別沿南北方向和東西方向以高、中、低三種建設強度擴張,共6個情景下熱環(huán)境水平,提出相應的城市空間發(fā)展的應對策略。
[Abstract]:The urban thermal environment is an important part of the urban ecological environment. Urbanization is the process of the natural landscape being replaced by the urban landscape in space. The sustainable expansion of the city and the reduction of the natural green space area lead to the deterioration of the urban ecological environment. Especially, the deterioration of urban thermal environment makes the quality of residential environment lower and the energy consumption of building air conditioning more and more serious. In order to accurately predict the distribution pattern of urban thermal environment in different urban development scenarios, a simulation method of urban thermal environment is established in the context of climate change and urban expansion. It is of great significance for the urban space expansion strategy and the urban ecological space construction to realize the optimization of the thermal environment pattern. In this study, a mesoscale climate simulation software WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM (Urban Canopy Model) was established based on refined land use data. The simulation and prediction of the urban thermal environment pattern under the dual background of urbanization and climate change were carried out. Firstly, the thermal environment simulation method of WRF coupled UCM based on refined land use data is established by studying the extraction of refined land use data, the determination of physical process parameterization scheme and the setting of urban parameters in UCM. The simulation results of 2-m air temperature and 10-m wind speed are in good agreement with the observed results. The reliability of the established simulation method for urban thermal environment simulation is verified. Secondly, the cellular automator-Markov chain model is introduced to establish the prediction model of urban expansion, and six urban expansion scenarios with high, middle and low density expansion along the north-south direction and east-west direction under the condition of regional constraints are established. At the same time, the thermal environment distribution pattern of 6 ideal urban expansion scenarios generated by high, middle and low density expansion along the north-south direction and east-west direction of Guangzhou is simulated based on the regional constraints. The simulation of urban thermal environment under the condition of different density of urban construction under the condition of urban land expansion is realized, and the strategy of urban spatial development based on optimization of thermal environment under different scenarios is put forward. Third, simulate and predict the urban thermal environment level under the background of future climate change. The dynamic downscaling simulation of the global model MIROC_4.0Hires nested WRF/UCM was used to predict the urban thermal environment in Guangzhou in 2032 under the SRES A1B emission scenario in IPCC. The simulation results show that the daytime temperature of Guangzhou in 2032 is about 2 鈩，

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