東亞冬季風(fēng)變率與高空急流的聯(lián)系及冬季風(fēng)季節(jié)預(yù)報
發(fā)布時間：2018-03-01 11:35
本文關(guān)鍵詞： 東亞冬季風(fēng) 高空急流 極冷日數(shù) 季節(jié)預(yù)測 物理-經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ?/strong> 出處：《南京大學(xué)》2016年博士論文 論文類型：學(xué)位論文
【摘要】：東亞冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)是北半球冬季控制東亞氣候最重要的系統(tǒng),其子成員在經(jīng)向上涵蓋從熱帶到中高緯,貫穿整個對流層。本文利用NCEP-NCAR再分析資料,從東亞副熱帶急流和極鋒急流協(xié)同變化的角度分析高空急流與其它冬季風(fēng)子成員、東亞地表氣溫變率的聯(lián)系,揭示和急流相聯(lián)系的緯向風(fēng)切變與其它冬季風(fēng)成員異常環(huán)流的反饋過程；從外強(qiáng)迫和大氣內(nèi)部動力過程的角度分析急流變率模態(tài)與冬季風(fēng)子成員相聯(lián)系的原因。在東亞冬季風(fēng)季節(jié)預(yù)測方面,評估ENSEMBLES計劃的耦合模式對溫帶東亞關(guān)鍵區(qū)內(nèi)平均氣溫的季節(jié)預(yù)報能力,并基于外強(qiáng)迫因子影響冬季氣溫的物理過程以及預(yù)報量和預(yù)報因子之間的時滯相關(guān),采用建立Physical-Empirical模型的方法,顯著提高東亞冬季風(fēng)關(guān)鍵區(qū)的極冷日數(shù)和平均氣溫的季節(jié)預(yù)報技巧。全文主要結(jié)論如下：一、 東亞高空急流協(xié)同變化與東亞冬季風(fēng)的聯(lián)系東亞副熱帶急流、極鋒急流是冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)的子成員。通過對東亞陸地上空緯向風(fēng)進(jìn)行EOF分析發(fā)現(xiàn),東亞陸地上空兩支急流變化的兩個主要變率模態(tài)分別對應(yīng)極鋒急流和副熱帶急流經(jīng)向位置的移動(急流經(jīng)向移動模態(tài))和二者強(qiáng)度上反位相變化(急流強(qiáng)度反位相變化模態(tài))。兩支急流協(xié)同變化的兩個主模態(tài)分別與東亞冬季風(fēng)地表氣溫的北方模態(tài)和南方模態(tài)相對應(yīng)。對于急流協(xié)同變化第一模態(tài),當(dāng)極鋒急流位置南移時,冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)子成員位置偏西偏北,東亞大槽北段增強(qiáng)并西移；低層西伯利亞高壓向西北方擴(kuò)展,這有利于冷空氣進(jìn)入東亞北部地區(qū)。而對于急流協(xié)同變化第二模態(tài),當(dāng)極鋒急流強(qiáng)度偏弱時,高原副熱帶急流偏強(qiáng),500hPa位勢高度場中高緯和中低緯度定常波波列向東傳播至東亞,在海平面氣壓場上為增強(qiáng)的西伯利亞高壓和南移的阿留申低壓,對應(yīng)東亞南方為冷冬,反之亦然。從兩模態(tài)所反映的環(huán)流異常來看,與極鋒急流、副熱帶急流分別相聯(lián)系的緯向風(fēng)異常通常表現(xiàn)為中高緯西風(fēng)(東風(fēng))異常同時中低緯度東風(fēng)(西風(fēng))異常,對應(yīng)于對流層高層環(huán)流的緯向風(fēng)切變異常。高層緯向風(fēng)切變異常是東亞冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)子成員環(huán)流異常反饋過程的重要組成部分。與冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)各子成員相聯(lián)系的異常三維環(huán)流通過反饋機(jī)制相互耦合：高層緯向風(fēng)切產(chǎn)生的氣旋性渦度使中層位勢高度降低,增強(qiáng)的東亞大槽引導(dǎo)冷空氣從高緯度南下,冷空氣的向南侵入一方面增強(qiáng)西伯利亞高壓,高壓環(huán)流異常將調(diào)制與極鋒急流相聯(lián)系的緯向風(fēng),另一方面可加強(qiáng)低層經(jīng)向溫度梯度,進(jìn)而影響熱力驅(qū)動的副熱帶急流,這一反饋機(jī)制體現(xiàn)了冬季風(fēng)子成員變率具有一致性特征。與高空急流兩個主要變率模態(tài)相聯(lián)系的環(huán)流異常均表現(xiàn)出對反饋過程的維持作用。二、東亞高空急流協(xié)同變化模態(tài)與東亞冬季風(fēng)相聯(lián)系的機(jī)制研究發(fā)現(xiàn),高空急流變率模態(tài)與其它冬季風(fēng)子成員環(huán)流異常相聯(lián)系的原因有兩個。一方面,異常三維環(huán)流通過反饋機(jī)制而相互耦合,當(dāng)急流發(fā)生變化時,耦合系統(tǒng)的物理反饋過程可調(diào)制其它子成員。急流經(jīng)向移動模態(tài)則對應(yīng)著三維環(huán)流耦合異常在中高緯的維持,而急流強(qiáng)度反位相變化模態(tài)則反映出環(huán)流耦合異常在中低緯度維持。在這一情況下,影響急流變化的因子為來自下墊面的強(qiáng)迫,以及天氣尺度擾動的反饋過程和定常波活動。另一方面,高層急流和其它子成員各自分別直接受到北極海冰異常和熱帶ENSO信號的調(diào)制作用,從而導(dǎo)致急流和其它子成員的變化相互聯(lián)系。秋季巴倫支海海冰異常偏少時,對應(yīng)海溫正異常,極鋒急流近極區(qū)一側(cè)的低層斜壓波活動減弱而近赤道一側(cè)斜壓性增強(qiáng),可調(diào)制高層西風(fēng)異常,同時高緯斜壓性改變可阻止氣旋東移,氣旋減少后有利于西伯利亞沿岸產(chǎn)生反氣旋環(huán)流異常。秋季巴倫支海增暖延續(xù)至冬季時,可以產(chǎn)生500hPa從極區(qū)到烏拉爾山的反氣旋異常,通過Rossby波傳播將導(dǎo)致下游東亞大槽西移加深。與La Nina相聯(lián)系的熱帶海洋大陸上空異常降水釋放潛熱,可產(chǎn)生上升運(yùn)動和高層向北的輻散風(fēng),進(jìn)而影響高層急流,同時也可以激發(fā)經(jīng)向上向高緯傳播的波列,東亞地區(qū)顯著北傳的波通量也有利于500hPa東亞大槽加深。前期秋季熱帶海溫和極地海冰等異常信號影響冬季風(fēng)的機(jī)制為冬季大氣環(huán)流和地表氣溫的季節(jié)預(yù)報提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。三、溫帶東亞關(guān)鍵區(qū)冬季極冷日數(shù)和平均氣溫的季節(jié)預(yù)報本文選取位于東亞冬季風(fēng)核心區(qū)域的溫帶東亞關(guān)鍵區(qū)(TEA,30°-50°N, 110°-140°E),對該區(qū)域極冷日數(shù)和冬季平均氣溫進(jìn)行季節(jié)預(yù)報研究。通過評估ENSEMBLES計劃耦合模式對溫帶東亞關(guān)鍵區(qū)冬季氣溫的季節(jié)預(yù)報技巧發(fā)現(xiàn),歐洲中心模式預(yù)報技巧高于多模式集合平均,相較其它模式預(yù)報結(jié)果更為可信,但由于受限于模式水平,當(dāng)前動力預(yù)報技巧仍較低。因此,本文進(jìn)一步基于外強(qiáng)迫因子影響冬季氣溫的物理過程以及二者之間的時滯相關(guān),建立Physical-Empirical預(yù)報模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵區(qū)極冷日數(shù)至少60%左右的變率存在季節(jié)可預(yù)報性。冬季平均氣溫和極冷日數(shù)的可預(yù)報性來源為從秋到冬的持續(xù)性物理過程：太平洋發(fā)展的ENSO、歐亞大陸北極區(qū)域(巴倫支-喀拉-拉普捷夫海)的秋季海溫異常,以及歐亞大陸十月份雪蓋異常。當(dāng)前期秋季北極海溫偏暖、歐亞大陸雪蓋偏多、La Nina發(fā)展時,通過調(diào)制三維異常環(huán)流反饋并影響冬季風(fēng)系統(tǒng)子成員變化,使得該年冬季溫帶東亞關(guān)鍵區(qū)極冷日數(shù)偏多,冬季平均氣溫偏低。關(guān)鍵區(qū)極冷日數(shù)的可預(yù)報性基礎(chǔ)是冷事件頻率和平均氣溫存在高相關(guān)性,Physical-Empirical模型為冬季氣溫和極端冷事件頻數(shù)提供了更為可靠的季節(jié)預(yù)測方法。
[Abstract]:The East Asian winter monsoon system is the control system of the northern hemisphere winter climate in East Asia is the most important, the sub member in the meridional direction ranging from tropical to mid high latitude, throughout the troposphere. Using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, from the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and polar front jet collaborative change angle analysis of upper jet and other winter monsoon sub members. Contact surface temperature variability in East Asia, the process of zonal wind shear and reveal the jet associated with other members of the winter monsoon circulation anomaly feedback; analysis of the causes of acute variability and winter monsoon sub modal members connected from the external forcing and atmospheric internal dynamic process perspective. In the prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon season, seasonal forecasting ability ENSEMBLES plans to assess the coupling mode of average temperature of the key area in the Temperate East Asia, and on the basis of external forcing factors affect the physical process and the prediction of winter temperature and pre The correlation between the delay factor reported, using the method of building Physical-Empirical model, significantly improve the seasonal forecast skill of extreme cold days and the average temperature of the East Asian Winter Monsoon key area. The main conclusions are as follows: first, with the East Asian subtropical westerly jet Asian Jet co vary with the East Asian Winter monsoon and polar front jet is a member of the winter monsoon system. Through EOF analysis found on the East Asian zonal wind over the land, the two main East Asia over the land of two jets change rate mode corresponding to the polar front jet and the subtropical jet meridional position (the jet to the mobile phase mode) and two strength (the strength of the jet phase change mode). The two primary modes of two jets coordinated changes correspond to the East Asian Winter Monsoon in northern and southern surface temperature modal mode. For collaborative change in the first mock exam jet State, when the polar front jet position south when winter monsoon sub member position North West, North East Asia trough strengthen and move to the West; the lower Siberia High North West extension, which is conducive to the cold air into the area of North East Asia. And for the second jet coordination change mode, when the polar front jet is weaker, the plateau side a tropical jet is strong, 500hPa geopotential height in high latitude and low latitude stationary wave propagating eastward to the East, the sea level pressure field for the enhancement of Siberia high and south of the Aleutian low, South East Asia corresponding for cold winter, and vice versa. The two mode reflected from the circulation anomaly, and very front jet, the subtropical jet were linked to the zonal wind anomaly is usually westerly (easterly) anomaly and low latitude easterly (westerly) anomaly, corresponding to the upper troposphere circulation variation of zonal wind shear Often. High zonal wind shear anomaly is an important part of the members of the East Asian winter monsoon system sub circulation anomaly feedback process. The abnormal three-dimensional circulation associated with each of the members of the sub winter monsoon system through the feedback mechanism of mutual coupling: high zonal cutting of cyclonic vorticity to middle lower geopotential height, enhanced East Asian Trough guide the cold air southward from the high latitude, the cold air southward into the one hand to strengthen the Siberia high and high pressure circulation anomalies will be modulated with the polar front jet associated with the zonal wind, on the other hand can enhance the low layer meridional temperature gradient, and the influence of the subtropical jet thermal drive, this feedback mechanism reflects the members of winter the wind has consistent characteristics variability. Circulation associated with the two main jet rate mode showed the abnormal feedback process to maintain function. Two, the Asian Jet collaborative change Study on the mechanism of contact mode and the East Asian winter monsoon is found, there are two reasons for high rate of members and other acute rheological modal of winter monsoon circulation anomaly sub linked. On the one hand, the abnormal three-dimensional circulation through the feedback mechanism and mutual coupling, when the jet is changed, the coupling system of the physical process of the other sub modulation feedback the jet to the mobile member. Mode corresponds to maintain the three-dimensional circulation coupled anomalies in the middle and high latitudes, and the intensity of the jet phase mode reflects the anomaly in the low latitude circulation coupled to maintain. In this case, forcing factors influence jet changes from the underlying surface, and the process of the synoptic scale disturbance and feedback Chang Bo. On the other hand, members of high-level jet and other sub respectively by direct modulation of Arctic sea ice anomaly and tropical ENSO signal, resulting in rapids and other Zi Cheng The change of contact with each other. The fall of the Barents Sea ice was extremely scarce, the corresponding positive SST anomaly, polar front jet region near one side of the lower layer baroclinic waves near the equator side weakened baroclinicity enhancement, modulation of high-level westerly anomalies and high latitude baroclinic changes can prevent gas rotating eastward, reduce after cyclone to the coast of Siberia produced an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the Barents Sea. Autumn warming until winter, can produce 500hPa from the polar anticyclone to mount Ural by abnormal Rossby wave propagation will result in downstream of the East Asia trough westward deepening. Associated with the La Nina tropical marine precipitation anomalies over the mainland release of latent heat, can produce rise the movement and high northward divergence wind, thereby affecting the high-level jet, but also can stimulate the upward propagation of the high latitude wave, was spreading to the North East Asia wave flux is also conducive to the east of 500hPa The sub trough. The early impact of autumn tropical SST and polar sea ice anomaly signal provides a scientific basis for the mechanism of Winter Monsoon Seasonal Forecast of Winter Atmospheric Circulation and surface temperature. Three, seasonal forecasting the key region of temperate zone of East Asian winter cold days and the average temperature of the selected key areas of East Asia is located in the core area of the East Asian Winter Monsoon temperate the (TEA, 30 degrees -50 degrees N, 110 degrees -140 degrees E), studied the seasonal forecasts of the very cold days and the average temperature in winter. By evaluating the plan ENSEMBLES coupling mode to the key area in winter season temperature Temperate East Asia forecast technique, European center model forecast skill than the multi model ensemble. Compared with other forecast results more credible, but due to the limited level of the current model, the forecast skill power is relatively low. Therefore, this paper further based on external forcing physical factors affecting the temperature in winter The delay between the process and the relationship of two, establish the Physical-Empirical prediction model, found around the key areas of extreme cold days at least 60% of the rate of change of seasonal predictability. The average temperature in winter and cold days the predictability of the source of persistent physical process from autumn to winter: Pacific Development ENSO, Eurasia the Arctic region (the Barents Kara Laptev Sea - -) autumn SST anomaly and the Eurasian Snow Cover Anomaly in October. During the fall of the Arctic SST warmer, Eurasian snow cover side, La Nina development, through the modulation of three-dimensional abnormal circulation feedback and influence of the members of the winter monsoon system changes, the key area of temperate winter year East Asia extreme cold days too many, the average winter temperature is low. The key area of extreme cold days predictability is based on cold event frequency and average temperature are high correlation, Physical-Empirical model The winter temperature and the frequency of extreme cold events provide a more reliable seasonal prediction method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P425.42;P457.5
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