本文關(guān)鍵詞：Budyko框架下黃土高原流域蒸散時(shí)空變化及其歸因分析　出處：《中國(guó)科學(xué)院教育部水土保持與生態(tài)環(huán)境研究中心》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： Budyko框架 流域蒸散 水熱耦合控制參數(shù) 水量平衡 黃土高原

【摘要】：受氣候和下墊面變化的雙重影響,流域水文循環(huán)過(guò)程也隨之發(fā)生變化,其中蒸散過(guò)程作為聯(lián)接水文過(guò)程與生態(tài)過(guò)程的紐帶,更受學(xué)界關(guān)注。Budyko框架具有堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)和明確的物理含義,籍此開(kāi)展的流域生態(tài)水文研究已成為水文學(xué)研究的前沿和熱點(diǎn)之一。黃土高原生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱,近幾十年來(lái)包括以退耕還林還草為主要內(nèi)容的生態(tài)建設(shè)、煤田油氣能源基地建設(shè)以及新城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)等在內(nèi)的大規(guī)模、高強(qiáng)度的人類活動(dòng)又使得下墊面發(fā)生了顯著變化,在這種背景下該區(qū)域蒸散發(fā)生了怎樣的變化,氣候和下墊面變化對(duì)其貢獻(xiàn)影響如何需要深入研究。為此,本論文在分析黃土高原水熱條件時(shí)空變化的基礎(chǔ)上,首先基于全微分方程對(duì)本區(qū)域潛在蒸散時(shí)空變化進(jìn)行了定量歸因;然后在年際尺度上研究Budyko框架下水熱耦合控制參數(shù)與下墊面變化(以植被為代表)和氣候季節(jié)變化之間的關(guān)系,并探討了影響水熱耦合控制參數(shù)的各因子間關(guān)聯(lián)性及時(shí)間尺度效應(yīng);最后估算了氣候和下墊面變化對(duì)流域?qū)嶋H蒸散的貢獻(xiàn),得到的主要結(jié)論有:(1)近幾十年來(lái)黃土高原氣溫顯著升高,而基于FAO 56 Penman-Monteith公式計(jì)算的潛在蒸散整體上則有輕微減小的表現(xiàn),說(shuō)明該區(qū)域存在“蒸發(fā)悖論”現(xiàn)象;降水的年內(nèi)變異和波動(dòng)較之于潛在蒸散的更大,氣候季節(jié)性指數(shù)S呈微弱降低趨勢(shì),意味著近幾十年來(lái)降水和潛在蒸散差值的季節(jié)波動(dòng)趨于減小。(2)基于全微分方程對(duì)潛在蒸散時(shí)空過(guò)程上所發(fā)生的實(shí)際變化進(jìn)行歸因分析表明:在時(shí)程變化上,多年來(lái)潛在蒸散對(duì)實(shí)際水汽壓最敏感,對(duì)太陽(yáng)輻射和平均氣溫的敏感性次之,而對(duì)風(fēng)速的敏感性最小。但同時(shí)受各氣象因子實(shí)際變化幅度的影響,多年來(lái)對(duì)該區(qū)域潛在蒸散變異貢獻(xiàn)最大的因子卻是平均氣溫,其次為風(fēng)速和太陽(yáng)輻射,而實(shí)際水汽壓的貢獻(xiàn)最小。造成潛在蒸散在空間上從鄂托克旗向東和向南遞減的主導(dǎo)因子分別是這兩方向上逐漸下降的太陽(yáng)輻射和逐漸增加的實(shí)際水汽壓;而從鄂托克旗至西南方向,下降的風(fēng)速對(duì)該方向上潛在蒸散的變化貢獻(xiàn)最大。(3)在水文年尺度上分析了13個(gè)典型流域水熱耦合控制參數(shù)ω與植被蓋度M和氣候季節(jié)性指數(shù)S的關(guān)系后發(fā)現(xiàn),在年際變化過(guò)程中,所有流域ω都呈現(xiàn)出了上升的趨勢(shì),這種上升趨勢(shì)在80年代以后變得更加明顯;參數(shù)ω與M在所有流域都表現(xiàn)出正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而與S則為負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系;在考慮參數(shù)ω與M和S的關(guān)系和邊界條件后,構(gòu)建了參數(shù)ω的半經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式,交叉驗(yàn)證的結(jié)果說(shuō)明該公式用于估算黃土高原流域年實(shí)際蒸散結(jié)果較可靠。(4)分析了不同時(shí)間尺度上影響參數(shù)ω的主要因子間的關(guān)聯(lián)性后發(fā)現(xiàn),Budyko框架下多年尺度上,流域植被與地形和氣候季節(jié)性顯著相關(guān),逐步回歸的結(jié)果也證明地形和氣候季節(jié)性與植被間存在多重共線性問(wèn)題,因此植被作為關(guān)鍵因子,可單獨(dú)擬合控制參數(shù);年際尺度上,植被和氣候季節(jié)性的相關(guān)性在多數(shù)流域都不顯著,在構(gòu)建控制參數(shù)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式時(shí)可同時(shí)考慮二個(gè)因子;在流域地形因子的表征指標(biāo)方面,發(fā)現(xiàn)采用地形起伏度要優(yōu)于前人用到的坡度和地形濕潤(rùn)指數(shù),實(shí)施多年的退耕還林還草工程使得植被覆蓋度隨著地形起伏度的增大愈趨增強(qiáng)。(5)在Budyko框架下對(duì)流域?qū)嶋H蒸散變化進(jìn)行歸因的全微分法、外推法、互補(bǔ)法和分解法進(jìn)行比較后發(fā)現(xiàn),互補(bǔ)法最具優(yōu)越性;1981-2012年,多年尺度上各流域?qū)嶋H蒸散對(duì)降水的變化最敏感,對(duì)參數(shù)ω的敏感性次之,對(duì)潛在蒸散的敏感性最差;年際尺度上,各流域?qū)嶋H蒸散對(duì)ω和潛在蒸散的敏感性呈顯著降低趨勢(shì),而對(duì)降水的敏感性卻呈顯著上升趨勢(shì)。在大多數(shù)流域,改善的植被條件對(duì)實(shí)際蒸散起到正貢獻(xiàn)的作用,而流域水熱匹配性的減弱對(duì)實(shí)際蒸散變異都是負(fù)貢獻(xiàn);如果不考慮氣候的季節(jié)性變化,那么在估算下墊面變化對(duì)流域?qū)嶋H蒸散的貢獻(xiàn)時(shí)將存在較大的誤差,誤差的大小等于氣候季節(jié)性變化對(duì)實(shí)際蒸散的貢獻(xiàn)值。本論文基于Budyko假設(shè),分析和探討了黃土高原蒸散的時(shí)空變化及氣候和下墊面變化對(duì)其的影響,深化和擴(kuò)展了不同時(shí)間尺度上水熱耦合控制參數(shù)的影響因子及其之間耦合關(guān)系的認(rèn)識(shí),有助于黃土高原以有限水資源可持續(xù)利用為基礎(chǔ)的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和生態(tài)建設(shè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Affected by climate and underlying surface change, hydrological processes are changed, the evapotranspiration process as the link of hydrological processes and ecological processes, more by academia.Budyko framework has solid theoretical basis and clear physical meaning, which carry out the watershed eco hydrological research has become one of the frontier and focus of hydrology research. The fragile ecological environment of the Loess Plateau in recent decades, including the ecological construction of returning farmland to forest and grassland as the main content of the construction of the energy base of oil and gas in the construction of new towns, large scale, high intensity of human activities and the underlying surface changed significantly, in this context of the what happens to the regional evapotranspiration, how to influence the climate and underlying surface change on the contributions need to be deeply studied. Therefore, based on the analysis of heat and water in Loess Plateau a time The change on the basis of the first differential equation for quantitative attribution of potential evapotranspiration temporal and spatial variation of the region based on the research of Budyko framework; and then the water and heat coupling control parameters and the underlying surface changes in interannual scale (with vegetation represented) and the relationship between climate and seasonal variation, and discusses the influence of the association and the time scale effect each factor of water heat coupling control parameters; the contribution of climate and underlying surface change of the actual evapotranspiration basin the final estimates, the main conclusions are: (1) in recent decades the Loess Plateau significantly increased temperature, and based on the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith formula to calculate potential evapotranspiration overall slightly reduced performance, indicating the existence of "evaporation paradox in the region; of precipitation variation and fluctuation in potential evapotranspiration more seasonal climatic index S showed a slight decreasing trend in recent decades, means The seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration value decreases. (2) the differential equation of the actual change of the potential evapotranspiration temporal process attribution analysis showed that: in the process of change based on potential evapotranspiration over the years, the most sensitive to the actual water vapor pressure, time sensitive to solar radiation and average temperature, and sensitivity to wind speed minimum. But at the same time affected by various meteorological factors the actual variation, over the years of the regional potential evapotranspiration variation is the largest contribution factors of average temperature, followed by wind and solar radiation, and the actual water vapor pressure. The minimum contribution caused by the dominant factor decrease from Etuokeqi to the East and to the south in the space of potential evapotranspiration are solar radiation decreased gradually in the two direction and increasing the actual water vapor pressure; and from the ertok banner to southwest direction, the direction of the wind speed on the decline of potential evapotranspiration Bulk changes the largest contribution. (3) in the annual scale hydrological analysis 13 typical basin water heat coupling control parameter W and vegetation coverage M and seasonal climate index S relationship found in the interannual change process, all in Omega are showing a rising trend, this trend becomes more obvious since 80s; parameter W and M in all basin showed positive correlation with S is negative correlation; considering the parameter W and M and S and the relationship between the boundary conditions, constructing the semi empirical formula parameter W, cross validation results show that the formula for estimating the Loess Plateau Basin the actual evapotranspiration results are more reliable. (4) to analyze the association of the main factor parameter w between different time scales on that scale for many years under the framework of Budyko, the vegetation and topography and climate seasonal significant correlation, stepwise regression results To prove the existence of multicollinearity problem of terrain and climate and seasonal vegetation, the vegetation as a key factor, can separate the control of fitting parameters; interannual scale, correlations between vegetation and climate in most seasonal watershed are not significant, in the empirical formula construction control parameters when considering the two factors in the index of River Basin; the topographic factors, the topography is better than the previous use of slope and terrain wetness index, the Reafforestation project makes the vegetation coverage increases with relief is increasingly enhanced. (5) were attributed to differential method, actual evapotranspiration change of basin under the framework of Budyko extrapolation complementary method and decomposition method, compared the complementary method most superiority; 1981-2012 years, years of scale change of actual evapotranspiration in each basin of precipitation is the most sensitive, sensitive parameters of Omega The perceptual sensitivity of the potential evapotranspiration, the actual evapotranspiration; interannual time scale, the sensitivity of the Omega basin and potential evapotranspiration was significantly decreased, and the sensitivity of precipitation has increased significantly. In most watershed, vegetation conditions to improve the positive contribution effect on actual evapotranspiration, and the water basin thermal matching weakened are negative contribution to the actual evapotranspiration variation; if you do not consider the seasonal climate changes, so in the estimation of underlying surface change on actual evapotranspiration basin contribution will there is a big error, error is equal to the magnitude of the climate change on seasonal actual evapotranspiration contribution value. This paper based on the Budyko assumption. The analysis and discussion of the temporal and spatial change of climate in Loess Plateau and the evapotranspiration of underlaying surface changes to its influence, deepen and expand the influence factor of different time scale hydrothermal coupling control parameters and between The understanding of the coupling relationship will help the development of agricultural production and ecological construction on the Loess Plateau Based on the sustainable utilization of limited water resources.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院教育部水土保持與生態(tài)環(huán)境研究中心
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P426.2

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本文編號(hào)：1428589