本文關鍵詞：不確定性條件下石羊河流域水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升研究　出處：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 水資源承載力 區(qū)域水資源新陳代謝 不確定性 雙層規(guī)劃 多目標規(guī)劃 承載力優(yōu)化提升 后優(yōu)化分析

【摘要】：石羊河流域為我國甘肅省河西走廊地區(qū)第三大內(nèi)陸河流域,流域內(nèi)的主要行政區(qū)域為武威、金昌兩市。流域內(nèi)人口密度相對較高、經(jīng)濟繁榮,用水需求量巨大;此外,由于石羊河流域先天產(chǎn)水能力不足,水資源開發(fā)利用程度很高,區(qū)域內(nèi)水資源管理、配置不合理,且存在嚴重的水資源浪費問題,造成了嚴重的水資源短缺及生態(tài)惡化等問題。總體上,流域內(nèi)的社會經(jīng)濟規(guī)模己超出其水資源承載力的極限值,因此開展研究該流域內(nèi)的水資源承載力的分析評價以及水資源承載力的優(yōu)化提升研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。同時,水資源系統(tǒng)是一個復雜的、開放的系統(tǒng),存在著一系列不確定性因素,如隨機性、模糊性、灰色性等。首先,本文將針對水資源承載力概念存在的問題進行分析研究;其次,以石羊河流域內(nèi)武威市和金昌市為研究區(qū)域,結合不確定性參數(shù)、變量分析方法,分別建立不確定性條件下的水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升模型;并且對得到的水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升方案進行后優(yōu)化分析,為決策者未來制定相應的水資源承載力提升方案提供相應的建議,本文的主要研究內(nèi)容和結果如下:(1)由于水資源承載力概念自身固有的混沌性和模糊性,目前仍缺乏公認的定義。此外,伴隨著科學技術等方面的發(fā)展,大家對水資源承載力概念有了更進一步的認識。因此,結合自身的研究內(nèi)容,提出水資源承載力概念的認知;此外,以提出的水資源承載力概念的認知為指導,將生物學中"新陳代謝"概念引入到區(qū)域水資源承載力研究當中,提出區(qū)域水資源新陳代謝方法,即水資源投入到區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中,產(chǎn)出產(chǎn)品、服務、污染物的有機過程�；谔岢龅乃Y源承載力認知和水資源新陳代謝方法,在綜合考慮研究區(qū)域水資源、社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,結合可持續(xù)發(fā)展原則,創(chuàng)建了相應的水資源承載力綜合評級指標體系,以此綜合分析評價研究區(qū)域水資源承載力及其可持續(xù)性利用狀況。結果表明,武威市水資源承載力己達到其承載力能力極限值,無法承載其未來的社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。(2)在針對農(nóng)業(yè)型區(qū)域的水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升研究當中,處于上層決策層的政府部門的目標為區(qū)域水資源經(jīng)濟效益最大化,處于下層決策層的農(nóng)民的目標為糧食產(chǎn)量最大化,故需要充分考慮不同決策層間用水部門的利益沖突。因此,基于水資源的不確定性和農(nóng)業(yè)水優(yōu)化管理中的雙層規(guī)劃問題,構建了模糊極值雙層模糊規(guī)劃模型。上層優(yōu)化決策層目標選取經(jīng)濟效益最大化,下層優(yōu)化決策層目標選取糧食產(chǎn)量最大化,在考慮糧食安全約束等約束條件基礎上建立了不確定性條件下的農(nóng)業(yè)水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升模型。結果表明,優(yōu)化之后其水資源承載力有了一定程度的提升。(3)在針對工業(yè)型區(qū)域的水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升研究當中,不能僅僅只考慮經(jīng)濟方面的效益,還需要考慮社會方面的效益。因此,在綜合考慮水量、水質(zhì)的不確定性基礎上,結合工業(yè)水優(yōu)化管理中的多目標問題,構建了多目標隨機分式目標規(guī)劃模型。經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)方面選取經(jīng)濟效益最大化為目標,社會系統(tǒng)方面選取就業(yè)人口最大為目標,建立了不確定性條件下的工業(yè)水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升模型。結果表明,優(yōu)化之后其就業(yè)人口和經(jīng)濟效益都有了相應的提升。(4)水資源利用效率與水資源承載力息息相關,故選用DEA方法和Malmquist指數(shù)方法對甘肅省14個城市的水資源利用效率進行時空分析,從側(cè)面反映武威市和金昌市的水資源承載力情形�？臻g尺度上,分析研究區(qū)域不同城市間的水資源相對利用效率差異;時間尺度上,根據(jù)Malmquist指數(shù)來反映水資源利用效率在年際間的動態(tài)變化規(guī)律,分析水資源利用效率隨時間變化的趨勢;此外,運用DEA方法對各水資源承載力優(yōu)化提升方案進行相應的后優(yōu)化分析。在綜合上述分析的基礎上,為決策者選擇合適的優(yōu)化方案提供新的分析視角。
[Abstract]:The Shiyang River Basin in Hexi Corridor in Gansu province for third of China's largest inland river basin, the main administrative area within the watershed of Wuwei, Jinchang two city. The population density is relatively high, economic prosperity, water demand is huge; in addition, because of the Shiyang River basin hydropower production inherent power is insufficient, the development and utilization of water resources is very high area, water resources management, unreasonable allocation, and the problem of serious waste of water resources, serious water resources shortage and ecological deterioration problems. On the whole, the limit within the watershed scale of social economy has exceeded the carrying capacity of water resources value, has important practical significance to carry out the study of the analysis and evaluation the basin water resources carrying capacity and optimization of water resources carrying capacity to enhance the research. At the same time, water resources system is a complex, open system, there is a series of qualitative factors, such as random , fuzzy, gray and so on. Firstly, this paper will analyze the research aiming at the existing problems of water resources carrying capacity; secondly, in the Shiyang River Basin in Wuwei city and Jinchang city as the study area, with uncertain parameters, uncertain variable analysis method, under the condition of water resources carrying capacity optimization model are established; and the bearing capacity of water resources optimal lifting scheme after optimization analysis for decision makers to formulate future water resources to provide the corresponding suggestions of enhancing the carrying capacity, the main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the concept of water resources carrying capacity inherent chaos and fuzzy. There is still a lack of accepted definition. In addition, with the development of science and technology, we have a further understanding of the concept of water resources carrying capacity. Therefore, combined with their own research content, put forward water resources The source of the concept of carrying capacity of cognition; in addition, in order to put forward the concept of carrying capacity of water resources of the cognitive guidance of the biology "The new supersedes the old." to the introduction of the concept of regional water resources carrying capacity research, put forward the regional water resources: Water Resources The new supersedes the old. method into the regional social economic system, the output of products, services, organic the process of pollutants. Cognitive and water resources bearing capacity of the proposed method The new supersedes the old. water resources based on the research of regional water resources in the comprehensive consideration, situation of social economic system, combined with the principle of sustainable development, set up the corresponding water resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation index system, the comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources analysis and sustainability the utilization of bearing capacity. The results show that Wuwei city water resources carrying capacity has reached its capacity limit value, not bearing its future social and economic development. (2) in In view of the agricultural regional water resources carrying capacity optimization research, in the upper decision layer of government departments as the economic benefits of regional water resources, the underlying decision-making goal for the farmers the largest grain yield, so it needs to fully consider the conflict of interests of different decision-making departments. So the water, water resources the uncertainty of agricultural water management and optimization of the bilevel programming problem based on the fuzzy extremum fuzzy programming model. Select the maximum economic benefits the upper optimization decision layer, select the largest grain yield lower layer optimization target, considering the food security constraints on the establishment of agricultural water resources uncertainty conditions the bearing capacity optimization model. The results show that after optimization the carrying capacity of water resources has a certain degree of ascension. (3) in the industry The regional water resources carrying capacity optimization research, not only taking into account the economic benefits, but also need to consider the social benefits. Therefore, considering the uncertainty of water, water quality based on the combination of multi objective problems in management of water optimization industry, we constructed the Multi-objective Fractional stochastic programming model. Economic the system chooses economic benefit maximization as the goal, social system, selection of employment as a goal, the establishment of industrial water resources under uncertainty capacity optimization model. The results show that after optimization the employment population and economic benefits have been improved accordingly. (4) the utilization efficiency of water resources and water the carrying capacity of resources is closely related to the choice of DEA method and Malmquist index method for 14 city of Gansu province water resources utilization efficiency of temporal and spatial analysis, reflect the Wuwei city and gold from the side Chang City water resources carrying capacity. The spatial scale, analysis of relative efficiency difference between different city water resources in the study area; the time scale, to reflect the dynamic changes of the efficiency of water resources utilization in the inter annual analysis according to the Malmquist index, the efficiency of the temporal trend of utilization of water resources; in addition, the use of optimization the corresponding analysis after optimize scheme of DEA method for the water resources carrying capacity. Based on the above analysis, provide a new perspective for policymakers to choose suitable optimization programs.

【學位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4

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