本文關(guān)鍵詞：聯(lián)合GRACE和水文氣象數(shù)據(jù)研究自然與人為因素對(duì)區(qū)域水儲(chǔ)量變化的影響　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： GRACE 時(shí)變重力場(chǎng) 陸地水儲(chǔ)量變化 廣義三角帽 不確定性 四川盆地 巖溶 干旱 水庫蓄水 ENSO IOD PDO

【摘要】：本世紀(jì)初衛(wèi)星大地測(cè)量技術(shù)確定時(shí)變重力場(chǎng)的突破性進(jìn)展為水文研究提供了前所未有的機(jī)遇。GRACE衛(wèi)星是首個(gè)可直接定量探測(cè)地表質(zhì)量變化的重力衛(wèi)星計(jì)劃,在全球環(huán)境變化研究中得到了廣泛應(yīng)用。然而,由于難以獲得真實(shí)的陸地水儲(chǔ)量觀測(cè)值,評(píng)估不同機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)布的GRACE產(chǎn)品,獲得更優(yōu)的反演結(jié)果是相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)和難點(diǎn)。隨著GRACE數(shù)據(jù)的積累和可靠性的增加,聯(lián)合其它資料深入挖掘GRACE在水文學(xué)、大地測(cè)量學(xué)、海洋學(xué)、氣候?qū)W等科學(xué)研究中的作用成為當(dāng)前研究的熱點(diǎn)問題。本文圍繞GRACE水文應(yīng)用這一主線,研究了 GRACE時(shí)變重力場(chǎng)模型不確定性評(píng)估方法,建立加權(quán)組合模型,并綜合水文、氣象、氣候等多種資料研究自然和人為因素對(duì)中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)及典型區(qū)域水儲(chǔ)量變化的影響。論文主要工作和成果如下:論文首先從地表質(zhì)量與重力場(chǎng)的關(guān)系出發(fā),系統(tǒng)地論述了 GRACE時(shí)變重力場(chǎng)反演地表質(zhì)量變化的球諧系數(shù)法,包括空間濾波方法及恢復(fù)泄漏信號(hào)的尺度因子法。建立了基于廣義三角帽(TCH)的GRACE時(shí)變重力場(chǎng)模型不確定性評(píng)估方法,并根據(jù)不確定性計(jì)算相應(yīng)的權(quán)值,建立加權(quán)組合模型,為時(shí)變重力場(chǎng)模型的選取提供參考。從水文學(xué)的角度出發(fā),基于水量平衡方程和水文守恒方程,闡述了 GRACE在水文學(xué)應(yīng)用中的理論和方法,重點(diǎn)介紹了跨流域區(qū)域水文特性,給出了多指標(biāo)確定干旱特征的方法,為開展GRACE水文應(yīng)用研究提供基礎(chǔ)。評(píng)估了五種GRACE產(chǎn)品(CSR、GFZ、JPL、HUST和GRGS)在中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)的不確定性,并分析水儲(chǔ)量變化的多尺度特征。研究結(jié)果表明:①GLDAS Noah計(jì)算的尺度因子能更好地恢復(fù)沿海地區(qū)的泄漏信號(hào),CLM模型則能較好的恢復(fù)主要河流的水文信息;②中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量變化具有明顯的氣候特征,其中,熱帶季風(fēng)氣候區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量波動(dòng)最大,其次是亞熱帶季風(fēng)區(qū)。相比于水文模型(GLDAS和WGHM),GRACE能更好地反映不同氣候類型區(qū)的水文特征;③CSR、GFZ、JPL、HUST和GRGS在中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)的不確定性的RMS分別為13.2mm、25.8mm、31.3mm、26.0mm和58.5mm�？鄢芷诤挖厔�(shì)信號(hào)后,五個(gè)模型的不確定性均有所降低;④水儲(chǔ)量變化趨勢(shì)明顯的區(qū)域有:華北地區(qū)、青藏高原東南部和天山地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量呈明顯減少趨勢(shì);青藏高原中部、四川盆地、東南沿海和東北地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量呈明顯增加趨勢(shì)。其中,華北地區(qū)秋季水儲(chǔ)量減少顯著,東南沿海地區(qū)冬季水儲(chǔ)量增加明顯�；诨ハ嚓P(guān)分析探討了中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量非季節(jié)變化與ENSO、IOD和PDO的遙相關(guān)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:①中國(guó)東南沿海和東北地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量變化受ENSO的影響較大,為正相關(guān);西南地區(qū)、青藏高原西南部、天山一帶水儲(chǔ)量變化與ENSO呈負(fù)相關(guān)。GRACE與ENSO的相關(guān)性通常大于降雨與ENSO的相關(guān)性,并具有更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)滯;②長(zhǎng)江中游水儲(chǔ)量變化受IOD的影響顯著,不存在時(shí)滯;青藏高原中部、阿爾泰山一帶和華北地區(qū)的時(shí)滯約為2-8個(gè)月。水儲(chǔ)量變化對(duì)IOD的響應(yīng)通常更快,當(dāng)IOD和ENSO事件同時(shí)發(fā)生時(shí),對(duì)于同時(shí)受二者影響的區(qū)域,IOD起主導(dǎo)作用;③西南地區(qū)、青藏高原西南部和東北地區(qū)水儲(chǔ)量變化受PDO影響較大,前二者呈負(fù)相關(guān),時(shí)滯約為0-3個(gè)月,后者呈正相關(guān),不存在時(shí)滯。當(dāng)ENSO和PDO事件同時(shí)發(fā)生時(shí),由于PDO的調(diào)制作用,可能會(huì)改變水儲(chǔ)量對(duì)ENSO的響應(yīng)機(jī)制。針對(duì)跨流域區(qū)域復(fù)雜的水文過程,以四川盆地為例,聯(lián)合局地降雨、水文模型、河流水位等資料研究了四川盆地水儲(chǔ)量變化特征及其與太平洋、印度洋氣候異常的聯(lián)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):①四川盆地水儲(chǔ)量變化與降雨、相鄰河流水資源補(bǔ)給均存在密切聯(lián)系,降雨增加使得四川盆地水儲(chǔ)量呈增加趨勢(shì),速率約為6.0mm/year。然而,2006年和2011年嚴(yán)重干旱事件造成盆地水儲(chǔ)量短期嚴(yán)重的虧損,且相鄰河流對(duì)四川盆地水儲(chǔ)量虧損的貢獻(xiàn)有所不同;②2003/01-2012/07期間,IOD與盆地水儲(chǔ)量變化呈負(fù)相關(guān)(r=-0.66),ENSO的影響則較弱(r-0.22)。然而,2012/08-2015/01期間,可能受PDO調(diào)制作用的影響,盆地水儲(chǔ)量與IOD/ENSO均轉(zhuǎn)為正相關(guān),且ENSO的影響更大(r=0.84)。針對(duì)大范圍巖溶水儲(chǔ)量變化難以監(jiān)測(cè)和模擬的問題,以西南巖溶為例,研究了嚴(yán)重干旱事件和龍灘水庫蓄水對(duì)巖溶水儲(chǔ)量變化的影響。結(jié)果表明:①2003-2013年西南巖溶水資源增加了 44.55km3,其中龍灘水庫蓄水貢獻(xiàn)達(dá)36.4%。2009-2010和2011年干旱事件造成巖溶水儲(chǔ)量嚴(yán)重的虧損,虧損量分別達(dá)到208.8km3和287km3;②GRACE能很好地探測(cè)到龍灘水庫蓄水過程,且水庫蓄水與巖溶區(qū)秋冬季水儲(chǔ)量變化的相關(guān)性強(qiáng)于降雨,夏季水儲(chǔ)量則主要受降雨的影響;③由于西南巖溶區(qū)復(fù)雜的水文地質(zhì)條件,TCH成為獲得可靠巖溶水儲(chǔ)量變化的有效方法;④在西南巖溶干旱評(píng)估中,綜合氣象干旱指數(shù)CI(帕爾默干旱指數(shù)PDSI)低估(高估)了干旱的嚴(yán)重性,GRACE非季節(jié)性水儲(chǔ)量虧損成為評(píng)估巖溶區(qū)干旱的一種有效的指標(biāo)。綜述所述,本文開展的GRACE水文應(yīng)用研究,為GRACE數(shù)據(jù)處理和模型應(yīng)用提供參考,為跨流域水文循環(huán)提供更多信息,為巖溶水文研究展示了一種新的途徑,有助于理解我國(guó)水儲(chǔ)量變化對(duì)極端氣候事件的響應(yīng)機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:The breakthrough of the satellite geodetic technology to determine the time-varying gravity field at the beginning of this century has provided unprecedented opportunities for hydrology research. GRACE satellite is the first gravity satellite program to detect the change of surface quality directly. It has been widely used in the research of global environmental change. However, because it is difficult to get the observed value of the real land water reserves, it is the basic and difficult research to evaluate the GRACE products released by different agencies and get better inversion results. With the accumulation and reliability of GRACE data, it is a hot topic of research to combine other data and dig into the role of GRACE in hydrology, geodesy, oceanography and climatology. This paper focuses on the application of the GRACE hydrological line, gravity model uncertainty assessment method of GRACE, the establishment of a weighted combination model, and integrated hydrological and meteorological and climate data of natural and human factors of Chinese in mainland China and typical regional water storage variation. The main works and achievements of the paper are as follows: first, from the relationship between the surface quality and gravity field, the spherical harmonic coefficient method, which includes the spatial filtering method and the scale factor method for restoring the leakage signal, is systematically discussed in the paper. The GRACE time-varying gravity field retrieves the surface quality change. The uncertainty evaluation method of GRACE time-varying gravity field model based on generalized triangle cap (TCH) is established. According to the calculation of the corresponding weights of uncertainty, a weighted combination model is established to provide reference for the selection of time-varying gravity field models. Starting from the point of view of hydrology, water balance equation and conservation equation based on the hydrological, expounds the theory and methods of GRACE in hydrology application, focuses on the regional inter basin hydrological characteristics, the drought characteristics of multi index method are given, and provide a basis for carrying out research on GRACE hydrological application. The uncertainty of five kinds of GRACE products (CSR, GFZ, JPL, HUST and GRGS) in the mainland of China was evaluated, and the multi-scale characteristics of the change of water reserves were analyzed. The results show that: 1. GLDAS Noah scale factor calculation can better restore the leak signal in coastal areas, hydrological information CLM model can better restore the main river; water storage changes, the China area has obvious characteristics of climate, the tropical monsoon climate zone water reserves the biggest fluctuations, followed by the subtropical monsoon zone. Compared with hydrological models (GLDAS and WGHM), GRACE can better reflect the hydrological characteristics of different climate types. 3. The RMS of CSR, GFZ, JPL, HUST and GRGS in mainland China is RMS, 25.8mm, 13.2mm, and "Ho" respectively. After deducting the cycle and trend signal, five model uncertainties are reduced; the water storage changes trend obvious region: North China, water storage and the southeastern part of Tianshan area of Tibetan Plateau is decreasing; the central part of the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan basin, the water reserves in southeast coastal and northeast region was significantly increased. In the North China, the autumn water reserves decreased significantly, and the winter water reserves in the southeast coastal areas increased significantly. Based on cross correlation analysis, the teleconnection relationship between the non seasonal change of water reserves and ENSO, IOD and PDO in the mainland of China is discussed. The results showed that: (1) the change of water reserves in Southeast China and Northeast China is positively correlated with ENSO, and the change of water reserves is negatively correlated with ENSO in the southwest, Qinghai Xizang Plateau and Tianshan area. The correlation between GRACE and ENSO is usually greater than the correlation between rainfall and ENSO, and has a longer delay. 2. The change of water reserves in the middle reaches of Yangtze River is significantly affected by IOD, and there is no time lag. The time lag is 2-8 months in the central Tibetan Plateau, the Al Taishan area and the North China. The response of water storage changes of IOD usually faster, when the IOD and ENSO events occur at the same time, for at the same time by the two regional effects, IOD plays a leading role; water storage changes in southwestern regions of Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, southwest and northeast area was affected by PDO, was negatively related to the former two, a delay of about 0-3 the latter month, was positively related to delay does not exist. When the ENSO and PDO events occur simultaneously, the modulation of PDO may change the response mechanism of the water reserves to the ENSO. In view of the complex hydrological processes in the inter basin area, taking the Sichuan basin as an example, combined with local rainfall data, hydrological models and river water level data, we studied the characteristics of water storage in Sichuan basin and its relationship with the climate anomalies in the Pacific and India oceans. It is found that: (1) the change of water storage in Sichuan basin is closely related to rainfall and the recharge of water resources in adjacent rivers. The increase of rainfall makes Sichuan basin water reserves increase and its rate is about 6.0mm/year. However, in 2006 and 2011 severe drought events caused by basin water reserves serious short-term losses, and the adjacent river in Sichuan basin water storage loss contribution is different; the 2003/01-2012/07 period, IOD was negatively correlated with the variation of water storage basin (r=-0.66), ENSO (r-0.22) effect is weaker. However, during the period of 2012/08-2015/01, the water reserves in the basin may be positively correlated with the IOD/ENSO, and the effect of ENSO is greater (r=0.84). In view of the problem that it is difficult to monitor and simulate the variation of water storage in large fan, taking southwest karst as an example, the influence of severe drought events and Impoundment of Longtan Reservoir on the change of karst water reserves is studied. The results show that: (1) the karst water resources in Southwest China increased by 44.55km3 in 2003-2013 years, and the contribution of Longtan Reservoir to water storage was 36.4%. 2009-2010 and the 2011 drought events caused serious loss of karst water reserves, the amount of the loss reached 208.8km3 and 287km3; the GRACE can easily detect the storage process of the reservoir, and the correlation between autumn and winter season karst reservoir water storage and water storage changes in the strong rainfall, Xia Jishui reserves is mainly affected by the rainfall; the karst area southwest complex hydrogeology
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P332

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