【摘要】：隨著我國鐵路建設(shè)的快速發(fā)展,大量新線建成并投入運(yùn)營,鐵路沿線各種未知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素也不斷涌現(xiàn),極大的增加了鐵路突發(fā)事件發(fā)生的可能性,對鐵路應(yīng)急管理工作提出了更高要求。為滿足新時(shí)期鐵路應(yīng)急工作需求,需要從鐵路應(yīng)急管理全局出發(fā),深入剖析鐵路應(yīng)急管理中存在的問題,不斷完善鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系建設(shè);同時(shí),鐵路應(yīng)急管理水平的提高,應(yīng)急能力的提升,離不開先進(jìn)理論和決策方法的支持,因此,結(jié)合鐵路應(yīng)急管理實(shí)際,積極探索科學(xué)、高效的應(yīng)急管理輔助決策方法,是當(dāng)前鐵路應(yīng)急管理工作亟待解決的問題。本文基于以上需求,在對我國鐵路應(yīng)急管理現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行深入分析的基礎(chǔ)上,挖掘其薄弱環(huán)節(jié),為完善鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系建設(shè)提供參考建議;并重點(diǎn)針對鐵路應(yīng)急決策方法不科學(xué)、決策效率不高等突出問題,從突發(fā)事件生命周期角度出發(fā),就鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案優(yōu)選和突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急方案決策方法進(jìn)行研究。本文主要研究內(nèi)容如下:(1)在對現(xiàn)有鐵路應(yīng)急管理理論及應(yīng)急體系建設(shè)研究成果進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從鐵路應(yīng)急管理的體制、機(jī)制、法制、預(yù)案體系和保障體系等5個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)出發(fā),對鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系進(jìn)行全面解析;總結(jié)我國鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系建設(shè)取得的成效,深入分析其存在的問題,并提出針對性的改進(jìn)建議;將崗位應(yīng)急處置辦法納入鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系范疇,建立鐵路總公司─鐵路局─基層組織─崗位應(yīng)急處置辦法的四級鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案體系;構(gòu)建基于信息新技術(shù)的鐵路應(yīng)急管理信息系統(tǒng)框架,為完善鐵路應(yīng)急體系建設(shè)提供有益參考。(2)針對鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案優(yōu)選問題,提出一種基于云模型和TOPSIS法的多屬性群決策方法。從完整性、可操作性、針對性、責(zé)任明確性4個(gè)方面構(gòu)建了鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案評估指標(biāo)體系;基于云模型的不確定轉(zhuǎn)換特性實(shí)現(xiàn)了決策者語言決策信息與定量數(shù)值之間的自然轉(zhuǎn)換,利用綜合云有效集結(jié)決策者屬性評價(jià)信息,避免了決策信息的丟失;綜合考慮各種主、客觀因素影響,基于加權(quán)逆向云算法和熵權(quán)法得到群決策屬性權(quán)重,運(yùn)用TOPSIS法的相對貼近度計(jì)算實(shí)現(xiàn)了應(yīng)急預(yù)案的優(yōu)選,為鐵路應(yīng)急預(yù)案管理提供切實(shí)可行的參考。(3)針對鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急方案決策問題,綜合考慮決策信息的隨機(jī)性和模糊性,不同情景狀態(tài)演變以及決策者行為特征等因素對決策過程的影響,提出一種基于前景理論的多屬性群決策方法。選取可行性、時(shí)效性、抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性、經(jīng)濟(jì)性等4個(gè)方面構(gòu)建了鐵路應(yīng)急方案決策指標(biāo)體系;基于前景理論和云模型將決策者的定性語言評價(jià)信息轉(zhuǎn)化為云前景價(jià)值,利用綜合前景值最大原理構(gòu)建決策者屬性權(quán)重優(yōu)化函數(shù),進(jìn)而確定群決策方案前景矩陣;基于群體一致性和極大熵原則確定決策者權(quán)重的基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)各方案的綜合前景值排序?qū)崿F(xiàn)方案優(yōu)選,為鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急方案選擇提供輔助決策支持。(4)針對鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急方案決策問題中,決策屬性之間相互關(guān)聯(lián)且決策者決策行為的有限理性等特點(diǎn),提出一種考慮后悔規(guī)避和屬性關(guān)聯(lián)的多屬性群決策方法。基于后悔理論將決策者的后悔規(guī)避行為融入應(yīng)急決策過程中,實(shí)現(xiàn)了屬性決策信息向感知效用的轉(zhuǎn)化;應(yīng)用Choquet積分和Shapley值有效集結(jié)各關(guān)聯(lián)屬性感知效用,解決了應(yīng)急決策屬性的模糊性和相關(guān)性等問題;并依據(jù)各方案的綜合感知效用值確定最優(yōu)決策方案,為鐵路應(yīng)急方案決策提供了新的思路。以上研究進(jìn)一步豐富和擴(kuò)展了鐵路應(yīng)急管理理論和應(yīng)急決策方法,對完善鐵路應(yīng)急管理體系,提高鐵路應(yīng)急管理效能具有較大的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the railway construction in China, a large number of new lines have been built and put into operation, and various unknown risk factors along the railway are constantly emerging, which greatly increases the possibility of the occurrence of the railway emergency, and puts forward higher requirements for the emergency management of the railway. In order to meet the demand of the railway emergency work in the new period, the problems existing in the railway emergency management need to be analyzed in depth from the overall situation of the emergency management of the railway, and the construction of the emergency management system of the railway is continuously improved; and at the same time, the improvement of the emergency management level of the railway and the improvement of the emergency ability, With the support of the advanced theory and the decision-making method, it is the urgent problem that the current railway emergency management should be solved in the light of the fact that the railway emergency management is practical, the scientific and efficient emergency management auxiliary decision-making method is actively explored. Based on the above demand, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the present situation of the railway emergency management in China, the weak link of the railway is excavated, and the reference suggestions are provided to improve the construction of the railway emergency management system, and the problems such as the non-science of the railway emergency decision-making method and the high efficiency of decision-making are emphasized. From the perspective of the life cycle of the incident, the decision-making method of the emergency plan of the railway and the emergency plan of the emergency is studied. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) Based on the analysis of the existing research results of the existing railway emergency management theory and the emergency system, from the five links of the system, the mechanism, the legal system, the plan system and the guarantee system of the railway emergency management, comprehensively analyzing the railway emergency management system; summarizing the achievements of the construction of the railway emergency management system in China, and deeply analyzing the problems existing in the railway emergency management system, and putting forward corresponding improvement suggestions; and the post emergency treatment method is integrated into the category of the railway emergency plan system, The four-level emergency plan system of railway emergency management information system based on information-based new technology is established to provide a useful reference for improving the construction of railway emergency system. (2) A multi-attribute group decision-making method based on the cloud model and the TOPSIS method is proposed for the optimization of the emergency plan of the railway. the evaluation index system of the railway emergency plan is constructed from the aspects of integrity, operability, pertinence and accountability, and the natural conversion between the decision information of the decision maker and the quantitative value is realized based on the uncertainty conversion characteristic of the cloud model, the attribute evaluation information of the decision-maker is effectively assembled by the comprehensive cloud, the loss of the decision information is avoided, the influence of various main and objective factors is comprehensively considered, and the weight of the group decision attribute is obtained based on the weighted reverse cloud algorithm and the entropy weight method, The optimization of the emergency plan is realized by the relative proximity calculation of the TOPSIS method, which provides a practical reference for the management of the emergency plan of the railway. (3) Aiming at the decision-making problem of the emergency plan of the railway emergency, the influence of the stochastic and fuzziness of the decision-making information, the evolution of different scene states and the behavior characteristics of the decision-maker on the decision-making process is comprehensively considered, and a multi-attribute group decision-making method based on the foreground theory is put forward. the decision index system of the railway emergency plan is constructed in four aspects of feasibility, timeliness, risk, economy and the like; and the qualitative language evaluation information of the decision maker is converted into the cloud prospect value based on the foreground theory and the cloud model, in that invention, a decision-maker attribute weight optimization function is constructed by the maximum principle of the comprehensive foreground value, and then the foreground matrix of the group decision scheme is determined; on the basis of determining the weight of the decision maker based on the group consistency and the maximum entropy principle, the scheme is preferably implemented according to the comprehensive foreground value ordering realization scheme of each scheme, and provides auxiliary decision support for the selection of the emergency plan of the railway emergency. (4) In the case of the decision-making of the emergency plan of the railway emergency, the decision-making attribute of the decision-making behavior of the decision-maker is interrelated and the decision-making behavior of the decision-maker is limited, and a multi-attribute group decision-making method considering the regret-avoidance and the attribute association is put forward. Based on the regret theory, the decision-maker's regret-avoidance behavior is integrated into the emergency decision-making process, and the transformation of the attribute decision-making information to the perceived utility is realized; the application Choquet integral and the Shapley value are used to effectively assemble the perceived utility of each related attribute, and the problems of the fuzziness and the correlation of the emergency decision-making attribute are solved; and the optimal decision scheme is determined according to the comprehensive perceived utility value of each scheme, and a new train of thinking is provided for the decision of the railway emergency plan. The above research further enriches and extends the railway emergency management theory and the emergency decision-making method, and has great reference value for improving the railway emergency management system and improving the efficiency of the railway emergency management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國鐵道科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U298

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