本文關鍵詞：霧霾情景下公眾霧霾感知的演化過程及風險應對行為選擇研究　出處：《中國科學技術大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 霧霾風險 風險感知 風險應對行為 有限記憶理論 風險責任歸因 風險應對行為屬性

【摘要】：近年來我國已經歷了多次嚴重的霧霾天氣,霧霾大面積爆發(fā)的本質是中國目前的經濟發(fā)展和不合理的人類活動的警告,同時"霧霾"風險是目前各類環(huán)境風險的集中縮影和典型個例,迅速進入大眾的視線,引起民眾廣泛的討論,也給現(xiàn)階段政府治理出了道難題。面對霧霾,民眾不禁追問霧霾污染應該由誰來負責?作為普通大眾,我們應該怎么做才能改變當前"霧霾圍城"的現(xiàn)狀?霧霾天氣下的風險應對行為是指公眾為應對霧霾風險,減免受到霧霾危害而采取的應對措施。霧霾問題作為環(huán)境問題的一種,對親環(huán)境行為的選擇也被視作為霧霾情景下的風險應對行為之一。親環(huán)境行為被學術界定義為通過改變日常行為來減少自身對生態(tài)環(huán)境造成的負面影響,親環(huán)境行為包括環(huán)境友好行為和自我保護行為。近年來,隨著公眾對霧霾天氣及其危害的認識,以及環(huán)保意識和自我保護意識的提高,當霧霾發(fā)生后,公眾往往會做出相應的反應和行為例如佩戴口罩、使用空氣凈化器、減少私家車使用、節(jié)約利用資源等,其中佩戴,口罩、使用空氣凈化器等可以被認為是自我保護型行為,而減少私家車使用和節(jié)約利用資源可以被認為是環(huán)境友好型行為。正確地引導公眾采取這兩種行為有利于政府開展霧霾治理。先前已有理論和研究探討了風險情景下公眾風險應對行為的影響因素,例如有限記憶理論、歸因理論以及防護性行為決策模型(PADM),他們都認為個體的行為決策過程實際是一種對信息的加工并處理的模式,對信息進行加工形成感知并最終影響行為決策。因此,本文將從霧霾信息接收、霧霾風險責任歸因以及霧霾風險應對行為屬性三個方面探討公眾風險應對行為決策的內在機理,揭示信息、感知(風險感知及責任歸因)、行為屬性對行為決策的影響機制。本文通過文獻綜述、數(shù)學建模以及實證調研等方法,從三個方面開展研究:(1)研究了霧霾信息接收對公眾霧霾感知和行為意向的影響。基于有限記憶理論,本研究構建了公眾霧霾感知演化模型。每次霧霾事件發(fā)生后,各種媒體以及溝通渠道都會釋放相關霧霾信息,根據(jù)媒體議程設置,每次霧霾事件釋放的信息數(shù)量也會不同,公眾處理這些信息并形成感知。有限記憶理論中討論了記憶的近因效應、聯(lián)想效應和復述效應對感知形成的影響,基于此我們設定了記憶率參數(shù)以及聯(lián)想率參數(shù)并通過遞歸算法歸納出霧霾情景下公眾感知和行為演化模型,并對該模型進行仿真。結果表明當公眾每次接收到的霧霾信息保持不變時,他們的感知演化是一個呈單調上升趨勢但存在上限的函數(shù),公眾的記憶率和聯(lián)想率都會決定公眾記憶的上限。當公眾接收到的霧霾信息呈現(xiàn)增長、減少或者先增長后減少的變化時,他們的感知和行為意向也會保持同樣的變化態(tài)勢,但相對信息變化存在著一定的滯后。(2)研究了霧霾風險責任歸因對公眾風險應對行為意向的影響。本研究通過整合歸因理論和防護性行為決策模型(PADM),將風險責任歸因作為一個重要變量,納入PADM模型中,構建了一個新的研究框架。該框架假設公眾的風險感知受他們所依賴的信息來源影響,風險感知激發(fā)了他們對風險責任歸因的判斷并進一步影響他們選擇采取自我保護型行為和環(huán)境友好型行為的意向。本研究以2013年底和2014年初發(fā)生大規(guī)模霧霾天氣為實證背景,調查了霧霾天氣的重災區(qū)——安徽省合肥市地區(qū)的城市居民,通過問卷采訪了 420名受訪者,詢問他們對于霧霾信息來源偏好、風險感知、霧霾風險責任歸因以及風險應對行為選擇的看法,獲取了第一手的研究數(shù)據(jù)。多元回歸分析的結果回答了研究框架中提出的研究問題,結果表明依賴從非正式來源接收霧霾信息會導致較高的風險感知,較高的風險感知一方面會對公眾風險責任歸因產生正向影響,一方面也會促進公眾采取風險應對行為。公眾的信息來源偏好對其風險責任歸因產生正向影響,但影響會存在差異,例如從非正式來源接收風險信息往往會使個體將責任歸于公眾,而偏好媒體來源則會產生三種不同的風險責任歸因。霧霾責任歸因將直接影響環(huán)境友好行為意向,但不影響自我保護行為意向,當公眾將霧霾風險歸因于自身不當?shù)纳盍晳T時,他們會采取環(huán)保行為。(3)研究了霧霾風險應對行為屬性對公眾風險應對行為意向的影響。通過梳理PMT理論和PADM模型中對風險應對行為屬性的界定,我們將風險應對行為屬性分為風險相關屬性和資源相關屬性,并構建以這兩種行為屬性為核心變量的研究框架。我們假設公眾的人口統(tǒng)計特征會影響公眾對風險以及風險應對行為屬性的感知,這兩種感知以及公眾過往的行為經驗會最終影響他們的行為選擇意向。研究結果表明風險相關屬性都是影響公眾自我保護行為和環(huán)境友好行為的最顯著以及最重要變量,其影響程度大于資源相關屬性以及風險感知。資源相關屬性出乎意料地對風險應對行為也會采取正向影響而非負向影響。在本研究中,我們還討論了公眾過去的風險應對行為選擇對他們未來繼續(xù)選擇該行為的影響,結果表明過去的行為會對未來的行為選擇意向產生正向的影響。人口統(tǒng)計特征也會對行為產生直接影響,例如年齡較大的人往往生活更為節(jié)約,他們會傾向于選擇環(huán)境友好型行為。學歷則對自我保護行為意向有顯著的負向影響,也就是說學歷越高,他們越不傾向于采取自我保護行為。本研究的創(chuàng)新點在于:第一,從個體記憶角度,研究信息接收模式對個體感知和行為應對的影響,這在風險管理領域尚屬首次。第二,本研究將風險責任歸因這一變量整合進基于防護性行為決策模型所搭建的研究框架中,并得出一個新的研究框架。利用風險責任歸因這一變量,我們能很好地理解和解釋公眾對事件責任歸因的看法是如何影響他們后續(xù)的行為的。第三,本研究將環(huán)境領域被廣泛接受與討論的社會學用語"親環(huán)境行為"引入到霧霾背景下的個體行為研究中,使得本研究的結論更具有指導意義。第四,本研究引入了風險應對行為屬性這一概念,并檢驗了風險應對行為屬性在行為決策過程起到的作用,這在國內的風險管理領域尚屬首次。本研究也具有一些實踐意義,有助于管理者深層次地、有差別地理解公眾霧霾應對的心理和行為,從而針對其認知和行為進行有效引導,為政府合理干預公眾霧霾風險感知和風險應對行為提供了理論和現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Our country has experienced a number of serious haze weather in recent years, the nature of the haze is a large area of the outbreak of Chinese current economic development and unreasonable human activities and warning, "haze" is the epitome of all kinds of environmental risk concentration risk and typical case, quickly into the public eye, causing widespread public discussion. To present a problem of governance. In the face of haze, haze pollution can not help but ask people who should be responsible for? As the general public, what should we do to change the current situation of "haze siege"? The risk coping behavior of haze weather refers to the public to deal with haze risk, and take measures to deal with the harm of relief by haze. As one of the environmental problems, the choice of environmental behavior is also considered as one of the risk response behaviors under the fog and haze situation. The pro environmental behavior is defined by academic circles to reduce the negative impact of self on the ecological environment by changing daily behaviors, including environmental friendly behaviors, environmental friendly behaviors and self protective behaviors. In recent years, with the public awareness of the haze weather and its harm, as well as environmental awareness and self-protection awareness, when haze occurred, the public tend to react and act such as wearing masks, air purifiers, reduce the use of private cars, the economical use of resources, including wearing masks, air purifiers and other uses can be considered to be self protective behavior, and reduce the use of private cars and the economical use of resources can be considered environmentally friendly behavior. The correct guidance to the public to take these two acts is conducive to the government to carry out haze governance. Previous theory and research to explore the factors influencing the risk coping behavior of public risk scenarios, such as limited memory theory, attribution theory and protective behavior decision model (PADM), they believe that the decision-making process of individuals is a kind of information processing and processing mode, the information processing and the final formation of perception effect of behavioral decision making. Therefore, this article will explore the internal mechanism of public risk decision-making behavior, information receiving from the haze haze and haze risk attribution of responsibility risk coping behavior attribute three aspects, revealing information, perception (risk perception and attribution of responsibility), the influence mechanism of behavior attributes on decision-making behavior. Based on literature review, mathematical modeling and empirical research, this paper studies from three aspects: (1) the impact of haze information reception on public haze perception and behavioral intention is studied. Based on the finite memory theory, a public fog haze perception evolution model is built in this study. After every haze event, all kinds of media and communication channels will release related haze information. According to the media agenda, the amount of information released by each haze event will also be different. The public will process these information and form a perception. Limited in memory theory discusses the influence of recency effect, memory effect and Lenovo rehearsal effect on perceived forms based on this, we set the rate of memory parameters and Lenovo rates through recursive algorithm parameters and summed up the haze scenarios the public perception and behavior evolution model, and the simulation of the model. The results show that when the haze information received by the public remains unchanged, their perception evolution is a monotonic upward trend, but there is an upper bound function. The memory and association rate of the public will determine the upper limit of public memory. When the haze information received by the public shows a change of growth or decrease or increase and then decrease, their perception and behavioral intention will remain the same, but the relative information change is lagging behind. (2) the influence of haze risk liability attribution on public risk response behavior intention was studied. This study integrates attribution theory and defensive behavior decision making model (PADM), and takes attribution of risk responsibility as an important variable into PADM model, and constructs a new research framework. The framework assumes that public risk perception is influenced by the information sources they rely on. Risk perception motivates their judgment of attribution of risk responsibility and further influences their intention to adopt self protective behavior and environment-friendly behavior. In this study, by the end of 2013 and early 2014 large-scale haze to empirically investigated the haze weather disaster area -- Hefei city in Anhui Province, through questionnaire interviews with 420 respondents, asking for information sources of haze preference and risk perception, risk and risk response haze responsibility attribution behavior choice view to obtain research data, first hand. The results of multiple regression analysis to answer the research questions put forward the research framework, the results show that dependence from informal sources of haze receiving information will lead to higher risk perception, risk perception of high hand will have a positive impact on the public risk attribution of responsibility, on the one hand will take the risk coping behavior to promote the public. Public information preferences have a positive impact on their attribution of risk liability, but there are differences. For example, receiving information from informal sources often causes individuals to blame their responsibilities on the public, while the preference of media sources will result in three different risk attributions. Haze responsibility attribution will directly affect environmental friendly behavior intention, but it will not affect self-protection behavior intention. When the public attribute haze risk to their own improper habits, they will take environmental behavior. (3) the effects of the behavior attributes of the haze risk coping behavior on the public risk response behavior intention were studied. By combing the definition of risk response behavior attributes in PMT theory and PADM model, we divide risk response attributes into risk related attributes and resource related attributes, and construct these two behavioral attributes as core variables.
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X51

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