本文選題：魚骨圖分析法 + 多米諾效應(yīng)　； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)高速發(fā)展,各類危險(xiǎn)源、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源數(shù)量急劇上升,重大化工事故頻頻發(fā)生。在眾多重大事故中,多米諾效應(yīng)往往是造成重大人員傷亡、巨額財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和環(huán)境污染的關(guān)鍵因素。但在化工企業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中,由于對多米諾效應(yīng)認(rèn)識(shí)不足,把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故視為單一事件,無法全面識(shí)別存在于安全管理和環(huán)保管理中可能導(dǎo)致多米諾事故的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源。據(jù)此開展的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估和相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急措施缺乏預(yù)見性和針對性,極易引發(fā)生產(chǎn)裝置和環(huán)保裝置之間的連鎖反應(yīng)�；谶@一背景,本文引入分析因果關(guān)系的魚骨圖分析法,對化工企業(yè)多米諾事故發(fā)生的根本原因和關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)進(jìn)行定性分析,得出化工企業(yè)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要原因包括六個(gè)方面:工藝設(shè)備、原輔材料、工作人員、安全管理、環(huán)保管理和應(yīng)急救援體系。在魚骨圖分析的基礎(chǔ)之上,提出多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù),用以表征企業(yè)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小。所建立的多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評價(jià)體系包括6個(gè)分指數(shù)和15個(gè)下一級(jí)指標(biāo)。多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)包括工藝設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、原輔材料風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、工作人員風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、安全管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、環(huán)保管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和應(yīng)急救援體系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等六個(gè)分指數(shù)。對每個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分指數(shù),確定下一級(jí)指標(biāo)和具體參數(shù)以及相應(yīng)的計(jì)算方法和取值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。根據(jù)該多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評價(jià)方法,本文對徐州市邳州經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)中的考伯斯(江蘇)炭素化工有限公司進(jìn)行具體案例分析。首先,運(yùn)用多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評價(jià)體系對該企業(yè)進(jìn)行評價(jià)。計(jì)算得到的多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)得分為6.57,根據(jù)分級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)確定該企業(yè)具有重大多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其次,根據(jù)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)和分指數(shù)的得分情況,對化工企業(yè)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平進(jìn)行分析:企業(yè)中最可能造成多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因在于安全管理上存在的問題。隨后依次是應(yīng)急救援體系、原輔材料、環(huán)保管理、工藝設(shè)備、工作人員等方面存在的問題。在安全管理方面,設(shè)備之間安全間距不足可能導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事故;在應(yīng)急救援體系方面,應(yīng)急預(yù)案的不完善所帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大;在環(huán)保管理和工藝設(shè)備方面,由于相關(guān)設(shè)備的檢修維護(hù)程度不夠和使用年限的增加,引發(fā)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性較大。最后,采用《企業(yè)突發(fā)環(huán)境事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指南(試行)》風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)劃分方法計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比。利用該指南評估方法計(jì)算得出該企業(yè)具有較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。對比兩種方法發(fā)現(xiàn),由于缺乏對多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和連鎖事故的考慮,現(xiàn)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方法低估了考伯斯公司發(fā)生多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性。研究結(jié)果表明,與現(xiàn)有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法相比,基于魚骨圖分析的化工企業(yè)多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評價(jià)方法可以系統(tǒng)分析多米諾事故的成因,建立相應(yīng)的多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估體系,為企業(yè)改善風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)節(jié)和全面提升多米諾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控措施水平提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and rapid development of economy in China, the number of risk sources increases sharply and major chemical accidents occur frequently. In many serious accidents, domino effect is the key factor that causes heavy casualties, huge property losses and environmental pollution. However, in the production process of chemical enterprises, due to lack of understanding of domino effect, risk accidents are regarded as a single event, which can not fully identify the risk sources that may lead to domino accidents in safety management and environmental protection management. The risk assessment and the corresponding emergency measures are lack of predictability and pertinence, which can easily trigger a chain reaction between the production plant and the environmental protection device. Based on this background, this paper introduces the fish bone chart analysis method to analyze the causality, and qualitatively analyzes the root causes and key links of the domino accident in chemical enterprises. The main causes of domino risk in chemical enterprises include six aspects: process equipment, raw and auxiliary materials, staff, safety management, environmental protection management and emergency rescue system. Based on the analysis of fish bone map, a domino risk index is proposed to represent the domino risk of enterprises. The Domino risk index evaluation system consists of 6 sub-indices and 15 lower-level indexes. The Domino risk index includes six indices: process equipment risk, raw and auxiliary material risk, staff risk, safety management risk, environmental management risk and emergency rescue system risk. For each risk index, determine the next level of indicators and specific parameters, as well as the corresponding calculation method and value criteria. According to the Domino risk index evaluation method, this paper makes a case study on the carbon Chemical Co., Ltd in Pizhou Economic Development Zone of Xuzhou. First of all, use Domino risk index evaluation system to evaluate the enterprise. The calculated Domino risk index score is 6.57, according to the classification criteria determine that the enterprise has a significant domino risk. Secondly, according to the score of Domino risk index and sub-index, this paper analyzes the domino risk level of chemical enterprises: the most likely cause of domino risk lies in the problem of safety management. Followed by emergency rescue system, raw and auxiliary materials, environmental protection management, process equipment, staff and other aspects of the problems. In the area of safety management, inadequate safety spacing between equipment may lead to serious domino risk accidents; in the emergency rescue system, the greatest risk is caused by inadequate contingency plans; and in environmental management and process equipment, Because the maintenance degree of related equipment is not enough and the service life is increasing, it is possible to cause domino risk. Finally, the calculated results are compared by the risk assessment guidelines for unexpected environmental events (trial) > the risk classification method. The evaluation method is used to calculate that the enterprise has a large risk level. Comparing the two methods, it is found that due to the lack of consideration of domino risk and chain accident, the existing risk assessment methods underestimate the possibility of domino risk. The results show that compared with the existing risk assessment methods, the domino risk index evaluation method based on fish bone map analysis can systematically analyze the causes of domino accidents and establish the corresponding domino risk assessment system. It provides decision basis for enterprises to improve risk link and to improve domino risk prevention and control measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.7

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