本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能耗部門 溫室氣體 情景分析法 江蘇　出處：《江蘇大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：世界資源研究所(WRI)的報告顯示,2007年"世界上最大的碳排放國家"是中國。中國政府在經(jīng)濟騰飛的重要時刻始終重視低碳發(fā)展,中國政府制定了很多環(huán)境友好的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,積極地應(yīng)對氣候變化,并將低碳發(fā)展納入了經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的長期規(guī)劃。國務(wù)院對氣候變化也是積極應(yīng)對:規(guī)定到2020年,全國百萬國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總能耗比2015下降15%,總能耗控制在50億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤。單位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2015年下降18%。江蘇省是能源消費大省,本文采用《省級溫室氣體清單編制指南》和《IPCC 2006》,運用大量統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)和生成的新數(shù)據(jù)等,對江蘇省主要能耗部門能耗部門溫室氣體排放現(xiàn)狀進行了詳細地分析。在研究溫室氣體排放現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,運用情景分析法,結(jié)合江蘇省溫室氣體排放政策目標(biāo),研究到2030年碳排放分部門特征和總量特征。最后,給出江蘇省今后低碳發(fā)展的措施建議。(1)江蘇省主要能耗部門溫室氣體排放總量從2010年的5.58億噸增加到2015年的7.36億噸,年均增速約5.69%。其中,工業(yè)部門能耗產(chǎn)生溫室氣體排放約占全省溫室氣體排放總量的90%,但比重逐年下降,其次為交通部門溫室氣體排放,約占全省溫室氣體排放總量的7%,且比重逐年上升。(2)在三種情境下,江蘇省主要能耗部門溫室氣體排放總量都是保持增長趨勢,通過優(yōu)化一二三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、改進能源利用效率等技術(shù),江蘇省主要能耗部門溫室氣體排放總量預(yù)計在2030年前后出現(xiàn)峰值,約為13.07億-14.18億噸,碳排放強度約為0.82噸/萬元-0.89噸/萬元。(3)江蘇省今后的低碳發(fā)展路徑可以分為五個部門來分析:優(yōu)化工業(yè)企業(yè)能源結(jié)構(gòu);控制房屋建筑面積;減緩汽車保有量增速;大力發(fā)展現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè);加快農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化。具體措施正文詳解。
[Abstract]:In 2007, "the world's largest carbon emitter" was China, according to a report by the World Resources Research Institute. In 2007, the Chinese government always attached importance to low-carbon development at an important moment of economic take-off, and the Chinese government formulated many environment-friendly development strategies. Actively tackling climate change and integrating low-carbon development into long-term plans for economic and social development. The State Council is also active in tackling climate change: by 2020, The total energy consumption of China's million domestic production is 15% lower than that of 2015, and the total energy consumption is controlled at 5 billion tons of standard coal. The carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP are 18% lower than in 2015. Jiangsu Province is a big energy consumption province. In this paper, we use the guidelines for the preparation of Provincial greenhouse Gas inventories and the IPCC 2006, using a large number of statistical data, survey data and new data generated, etc. The present situation of greenhouse gas emission in the main energy consumption departments of Jiangsu Province is analyzed in detail. On the basis of studying the present situation of greenhouse gas emissions, the scenario analysis method is used to combine the policy objectives of greenhouse gas emission in Jiangsu Province. The characteristics of subsector and total amount of carbon emissions by 2030 are studied. Finally, suggestions for future low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province are given.) the total greenhouse gas emissions of major energy consuming sectors in Jiangsu Province increase from 558 million tons in 2010 to 736 million tons in 2015. The average annual growth rate is about 5.69%. Among them, energy consumption in the industrial sector accounts for about 90% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the province, but the proportion is decreasing year by year, followed by greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Accounting for about 7% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Jiangsu Province, and the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions is rising year by year.) in three situations, the total greenhouse gas emissions of the main energy consumption departments in Jiangsu Province are all keeping the trend of growth, and through optimizing the industrial structure of 123, To improve energy use efficiency and other technologies, the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions from major energy consumption departments in Jiangsu Province is expected to peak around 2030, about one billion three hundred and seven million to one billion four hundred and eighteen million tons. The future low-carbon development path of Jiangsu Province can be divided into five parts: optimizing the energy structure of industrial enterprises, controlling the building area of houses, slowing down the growth rate of automobile ownership; Vigorously develop the modern service industry; speed up the modernization of agriculture.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X16

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