本文選題：冷濕事件　切入點(diǎn)：中國(guó)冬季氣候　出處：《中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：低溫雨雪冰凍事件對(duì)人類活動(dòng)和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有很大影響,是我國(guó)南方地區(qū)冬季影響重大的氣象災(zāi)害之一。本文將從我國(guó)南方地區(qū)溫度和降水異常特征入手,分析各類持續(xù)性溫濕異常事件影響系統(tǒng)之間的聯(lián)系與差別。持續(xù)性異常事件具有天氣和氣候異常雙重特征。本文主要利用1981-2010年中國(guó)2474站逐日氣溫和降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù),通過多變量聯(lián)合EOF客觀地挑選我國(guó)南方地區(qū)冬季持續(xù)性溫濕異常事件的易發(fā)區(qū)域,利用關(guān)鍵區(qū)各站逐日氣溫和降水異常序列,將我國(guó)南方冬季持續(xù)性異常事件分為冷濕、冷干、暖濕和暖干四類異常事件,并用NCEP-NCAR逐日再分析資料對(duì)各類持續(xù)性異常事件環(huán)流特征進(jìn)行合成分析及對(duì)比。通過分析得出,歐亞大陸中高緯上空“北高南低”的異常環(huán)流形勢(shì)使得溫帶急流減弱,副熱帶急流增強(qiáng),有利于冷空氣向南爆發(fā),而中緯度地區(qū)“東高西低”的異常環(huán)流則對(duì)應(yīng)西太平洋副高增強(qiáng)北移和南支西風(fēng)槽的活躍,有利于偏南風(fēng)水汽輸送達(dá)到我國(guó)南方地區(qū),因此降水偏多。兩種異常環(huán)流型的配合,使得我國(guó)南方出現(xiàn)各種的持續(xù)性異常事件,冷濕事件(低溫雨雪冰凍事件)正是在有利于降水和有利于降溫的兩種異常環(huán)流型連續(xù)影響下發(fā)生的。在此基礎(chǔ)上,考慮冷濕事件與其他異常事件之間的不同,利用其發(fā)生期間存在差別變化的關(guān)鍵系統(tǒng),分別定義描述我國(guó)南方地區(qū)冬季降溫的“北高南低”指數(shù)()、降水的“東高西低”指數(shù)(),可以作為我國(guó)南方地區(qū)低溫雨雪冰凍事件的前期環(huán)流信號(hào),可提前至少一周左右對(duì)持續(xù)性事件做出預(yù)測(cè),有助于提高我國(guó)南方地區(qū)冬季冷濕(低溫雨雪冰凍)事件的預(yù)報(bào)能力。本文同時(shí)還對(duì)2016年1月我國(guó)南方地區(qū)的溫濕特征進(jìn)行了分析,結(jié)果顯示,2016年1月20-25日,南方地區(qū)出現(xiàn)持續(xù)性異常冷干事件�！氨备吣系汀敝笖�(shù)提前8天轉(zhuǎn)為正值,“東高西低”指數(shù)一直徘徊在0附近,直到提前4天轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值,并穩(wěn)定到事件結(jié)束,再一次表明了定義的環(huán)流指數(shù)可以作為南方持續(xù)性溫濕異常事件的預(yù)報(bào)指標(biāo)。進(jìn)一步對(duì)北極增暖的原因及其對(duì)此次冷干的影響機(jī)理進(jìn)行了分析,前期(2015年12月底)北美沿岸海溫出現(xiàn)暖異常,激發(fā)出北美東岸至北歐的遙相關(guān)波列,引起的擾動(dòng)風(fēng)對(duì)平均溫度梯度的向極輸送,使得北極增暖。北極的迅速增溫使極渦和極地冷空氣向南移動(dòng),在中西伯利亞堆積后向南爆發(fā),造成我國(guó)出現(xiàn)大范圍降溫。但同期由于水汽條件不好,沒有出現(xiàn)持續(xù)性降水,故而我國(guó)南方地區(qū)為持續(xù)性異常冷干事件。
[Abstract]:The cold rain and snow freezing event has great influence on human activities and agricultural production, and is one of the major meteorological disasters in southern China in winter. This paper will start with the anomalous characteristics of temperature and precipitation in southern China. This paper analyzes the relationship and difference between the influence systems of various kinds of persistent temperature and humidity anomalies. The continuous abnormal events have the dual characteristics of weather and climate anomalies. The daily temperature and precipitation data of 2474 stations in China from 1981 to 2010 are mainly used in this paper. By using multivariable and EOF, the regions prone to winter persistent abnormal temperature and humidity events in southern China are selected objectively. By using the daily temperature and precipitation anomaly sequence of stations in key areas, the winter persistent abnormal events in southern China are divided into cold and wet, cold and dry winter events. The circulation characteristics of various persistent abnormal events are synthetically analyzed and compared with the NCEP-NCAR daily reanalysis data. The anomalous circulation of "north high south low" over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia makes the temperate jet flow weaken and the subtropical jet increase, which is conducive to the onset of cold air to the south. The anomalous circulation of "East high and west low" in mid-latitude region corresponds to the northward shift of the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean and the activity of the westerly trough in the southern branch of the western Pacific Ocean, which is beneficial to the southward wind and vapor transport to the southern part of China, so there is more precipitation. There are various kinds of persistent abnormal events in southern China. The cold and wet events (low temperature rain and snow freezing events) occur under the continuous influence of two abnormal circulation patterns, which are favorable to precipitation and favorable to cooling. Taking into account the differences between cold and wet events and other abnormal events, and making use of the key systems in which there is a differential change during their occurrence, The index of "north high south low" and "east high west low" of precipitation can be used as the early circulation signal of low temperature rain and snow freezing events in southern China. You can predict a sustained event at least a week in advance. This paper also analyzes the characteristics of temperature and humidity in southern China in January 2016. The results show that, from 20 to 25 January 2016, the winter cold and wet events in southern China can be predicted. The "North High, South low" index turned positive 8 days earlier, and the "East High West low" index hovered around zero until it turned negative 4 days earlier and stabilized until the end of the event. It is shown once again that the defined circulation index can be used as a predictor of the persistent anomalous temperature and humidity events in the South. The causes of the arctic warming and the mechanism of its influence on the cold and dry are further analyzed. In the preceding period (late December 2015), the North American coastal sea surface temperature (SST) showed a warm anomaly, which stimulated the teleconnection wave train from the eastern coast of North America to northern Europe, resulting in the polar transport of the mean temperature gradient by the disturbance wind. The rapid warming of the Arctic caused polar vortex and polar cold air to move southward, which erupted after the accumulation in Central Siberia, causing a large-scale cooling in China. However, due to poor water vapor conditions in the same period, there was no sustained precipitation. Therefore, the southern region of our country for the persistence of abnormal cold and dry events.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P468

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