本文關鍵詞： NAM模型 擾動分析法 敏感性分析 單純形法 遺傳算法　出處：《黑龍江八一農(nóng)墾大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國農(nóng)業(yè)水環(huán)境時空分布十分不均勻,降雨和徑流是形成農(nóng)業(yè)水環(huán)境的重要因素,對糧食產(chǎn)量及品質(zhì)影響較大,潛在影響流域、濕地等生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。此外,降雨是徑流形成的主要原因,地表徑流對降雨的變化極為敏感,短時間內(nèi)急劇增加易導致洪澇災害,對農(nóng)業(yè)影響巨大,對設施農(nóng)業(yè)破壞巨大。降雨徑流模型是模擬流域內(nèi)由降雨形成地表徑流過程的概念性水文模型,是通過水文循環(huán)的物理結(jié)構與半經(jīng)驗公式相結(jié)合,利用歷史水文資料進行各參數(shù)率定,近似地模擬流域內(nèi)徑流過程。該模型已廣泛應用于水旱災害防災減災、水資源開發(fā)與利用、水環(huán)境和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)保護等領域。為了研究流域內(nèi)降雨-徑流關系,提高降雨徑流模型模擬精度,尋求適合模型的率定方法,研究中選擇NAM降雨徑流模型,對模型參數(shù)進行敏感性分析,分別以單純形法和遺傳算法為率定方法,對美國伊利諾伊州Upper Sangamon流域和我國東北烏裕爾河流域進行日徑流模擬。主要開展了如下工作:(1)介紹NAM降雨徑流模型參數(shù)和結(jié)構,確定具體率定方法,給出模型評價標準,對研究區(qū)域、數(shù)據(jù)來源和數(shù)據(jù)處理方法的基本原理進行了說明。(2)選取NAM模型中的9個主要參數(shù),以伊利諾伊州Upper Sangamon流域Fisher觀測站的徑流數(shù)據(jù)和氣象數(shù)據(jù)為研究對象,以擬分析參數(shù)改變下流域徑流變化量為研究目標,利用擾動分析法分析了9個重要模型參數(shù)對于模擬結(jié)果的敏感性,得到了各參數(shù)的敏感性等級,為下一步率定參數(shù)提供依據(jù)。(3)介紹單純形法和遺傳算法的率定策略,在模型參數(shù)敏感性分析的基礎上,以淺層蓄水層最大含水量Lmax、地表蓄水層最大含水量Umax、地表徑流系數(shù)CQOF、地下徑流計算臨界值TG作為主要率定參數(shù),采用兩種率定方法分別得到Upper Sangamon流域和烏裕爾河流域NAM模型的中間參數(shù)并進行日徑流計算,得到了不同方法不同流域的日徑流過程,驗證了兩種算法的正確性和可靠性。(4)綜合考慮兩種率定方法在不同條件流域的適用性,對得到的日徑流結(jié)果進行比較分析,得到了兩種率定方法的適用條件,可依據(jù)所掌握流域初始條件來選擇NAM模型的率定方法,為后續(xù)提高模型模擬精度奠定了基礎。
[Abstract]:The spatial and temporal distribution of agricultural water environment in China is very uneven. Rainfall and runoff are important factors in the formation of agricultural water environment, which have a great impact on grain yield and quality, and potentially affect watershed, wetland and other ecosystems. Rainfall is the main reason for the formation of runoff. Surface runoff is very sensitive to the changes of rainfall. A sharp increase in a short period of time can easily lead to flood disaster, which has a great impact on agriculture. Rainfall runoff model is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates the process of surface runoff formed by rainfall in a watershed. It combines the physical structure of hydrological cycle with semi-empirical formula. This model has been widely used in flood and drought disaster prevention and mitigation, water resources development and utilization. In order to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff and improve the precision of rainfall runoff model, the NAM rainfall runoff model is chosen in the study. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analyzed using simplex method and genetic algorithm respectively as the rate determination method. The daily runoff simulation of the Upper Sangamon Basin in Illinois and the Wuyur River Basin in Northeast China is carried out. The main work is as follows: 1). The parameters and structure of NAM rainfall runoff model are introduced. Determine the specific rate of the method, give the model evaluation criteria, the study area, data sources and data processing methods of the basic principles of the explanation. 2) selected nine main parameters of the NAM model. The runoff data and meteorological data of Fisher station in Upper Sangamon basin in Illinois were studied, and the runoff variation under the change of parameters was taken as the research object. The sensitivity of nine important model parameters to the simulation results is analyzed by perturbation analysis method, and the sensitivity grade of each parameter is obtained. This paper introduces the strategy of simplex method and genetic algorithm. Based on the sensitivity analysis of model parameters, the maximum water content of shallow aquifer Lmax is used. The maximum water content Umax, the surface runoff coefficient CQOF and the critical value TG of underground runoff are the main parameters. The intermediate parameters of the NAM model of the Upper Sangamon basin and the Wuyue River basin were obtained by two rate-determination methods and the daily runoff was calculated. The daily runoff process of different watershed with different methods is obtained, and the correctness and reliability of the two algorithms are verified. The results of daily runoff are compared and analyzed, and the suitable conditions of the two methods are obtained. According to the initial conditions of the basin, the NAM model can be selected. It lays a foundation for further improving the accuracy of model simulation.
【學位授予單位】：黑龍江八一農(nóng)墾大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S161.6

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