發(fā)布時間：2018-01-10 10:30

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于GIS和CA-Markov模型的烏江下游地區(qū)土地利用變化情景模擬與生態(tài)環(huán)境效應(yīng)評價　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地利用/覆被變化 CA-Markov模型 情景模擬 生態(tài)環(huán)境效應(yīng) 烏江下游地區(qū)

【摘要】：當(dāng)前,人類活動深刻影響著土地利用格局及其變化。因此,探究土地利用變化原因和機(jī)理、模擬未來土地利用格局分布對當(dāng)前土地政策、土地規(guī)劃具有重要意義。以烏江下游的涪陵等六個區(qū)縣為研究區(qū),基于1995年、2005年、2015年的Landsat影像解譯數(shù)據(jù),綜合運(yùn)用GIS空間分析技術(shù)、CA-Markov模型和MCE模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)研究區(qū)土地利用時空格局模擬。結(jié)合情景分析方法,探討在“快速城鎮(zhèn)化情景”、“規(guī)劃情景”和“生態(tài)保護(hù)情景”三種模式下研究區(qū)2020年、2030年、2050年的土地利用格局。參考其他學(xué)者制定的生態(tài)服務(wù)價值當(dāng)量因子,結(jié)合研究區(qū)實(shí)際情況,利用植被凈初級生產(chǎn)力、降水、土壤數(shù)據(jù)對研究區(qū)的單位面積生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)功能價值當(dāng)量加以校正,然后通過生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值估算方法,計算研究區(qū)未來不同情景下的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)功能價值。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)研究區(qū)以耕地和林地為主,兩者之和占總面積的86%及以上,20年來,耕地經(jīng)歷了“先減后增”的過程,前10年減少了451.85km2,占耕地總面積(1995)的6.84%,后10年耕地面積略有增加,但增幅較緩;與此相反,林地在20年內(nèi)持續(xù)增加,2015年比1995年增加了894.49 km2,年均增幅達(dá)0.4%。此外,草地和未利用地面積20年間持續(xù)減少,尤其是未利用地,減少了590.61 km2,占未利用地總面積(1995)的80%,且主要轉(zhuǎn)化為耕地和林地。水域面積變化雖略有起伏,但總體上幅度不大。(2)20年間研究區(qū)土地利用的動態(tài)度差異比較明顯。就單一土地利用動態(tài)度而言,未利用地的變化幅度最大,1995-2015年間達(dá)到-8%;其次是建設(shè)用地,前10年比后10年變化幅度要大,總體呈逐年增加趨勢;耕地和林地的年動態(tài)度均小于1%,而前者呈現(xiàn)先減少后緩慢增加的趨勢,后者則呈現(xiàn)輕微增加的趨勢;草地呈現(xiàn)逐年減少的趨勢,且后10年變化幅度更大;水域總體上變化比較平穩(wěn)。就綜合土地利用動態(tài)度而言,三個時段各地類綜合動態(tài)度都小于2%,其中,耕地、林地、水域和建設(shè)用地的綜合動態(tài)度都小于1%,而草地和未利用地的綜合動態(tài)度基本上介于1%-2%之間,這說明研究區(qū)土地利用變化的總體幅度或強(qiáng)度不大,但個別地類變化比較明顯。(3)1995-2005年間耕地轉(zhuǎn)出量最大,為783.26 km2,是轉(zhuǎn)入總量的2.36倍,耕地面積的大幅度減少不容忽視。從耕地轉(zhuǎn)出類型來看,位居第一的是轉(zhuǎn)換為林地,數(shù)量為627.93 km2,占轉(zhuǎn)出總面積的80.17%。其次是建設(shè)用地,在此期間有112.38 km2的耕地轉(zhuǎn)為了建設(shè)用地,占轉(zhuǎn)出總面積的14.35%。從轉(zhuǎn)入類型來看,未利用地和林地轉(zhuǎn)為耕地數(shù)量最多,分別為140.00 km2和116.09 km2。2005-2015年各地類之間的轉(zhuǎn)換大致與上一階段相同。1995-2015年研究區(qū)各土地類型相互轉(zhuǎn)入轉(zhuǎn)出量較大,土地類型轉(zhuǎn)移變化十分明顯,且呈“三增三減”的變化趨勢,即林地、水域和建設(shè)用地增加,耕地、草地和未利用地減少。(4)在“快速城鎮(zhèn)化情景”下,建設(shè)用地急劇擴(kuò)張,35年間其面積增加了一倍,達(dá)到1 390.46 km2,且主要來源為耕地,約占轉(zhuǎn)出耕地面積的一半;林地增長十分緩慢,草地和未利用地持續(xù)減少,到2050年分別減少了186.58 km2和69.40 km2,未利用地減少了一半。在“規(guī)劃情景”下,建設(shè)用地增長仍然較快,2050年增加了347.92 km2,增幅達(dá)37.92%;耕地減幅有所下降,林地增加也比“快速城鎮(zhèn)化情景”要快,但草地和未利用地仍在持續(xù)減少,35年間分別減少了25.9%和44.3%。而在“生態(tài)保護(hù)情景”下,林地、草地、未利用地等生態(tài)用地不斷恢復(fù)和增加,到2050年,生態(tài)用地總面積占研究區(qū)64%;建設(shè)用地?zé)o序擴(kuò)張得到限制,到2050年其總面積為1 171.42 km2,比同期“快速城鎮(zhèn)化情景”減少了219.04 km2;耕地雖有減少,但逐漸趨于平衡,始終保持在6 000 km2以上。(5)研究區(qū)未來不同情景下土地利用變化的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值變化與各土地利用類型面積變化密切相關(guān),即當(dāng)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)功能單價一定時,土地利用類型面積的增加或減少直接導(dǎo)致其對應(yīng)的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值的增加或減少。未來三種情景下,由于研究區(qū)土地利用變化呈現(xiàn)“三減、兩增、一平”的趨勢,即耕地、草地和未利用地持續(xù)減少,林地和建設(shè)用地持續(xù)增加,水域總體上變化不明顯,其對應(yīng)的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值也呈現(xiàn)相同的變化趨勢。但從生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值的變化幅度來看,生態(tài)保護(hù)情景下的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值變化幅度最小,且林地、草地、水域等生態(tài)用地的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值比同期“快速城市化情景”、“規(guī)劃情景”都要大,其產(chǎn)生的生態(tài)環(huán)境效應(yīng)也比較明顯。因此,“生態(tài)保護(hù)情景”是研究區(qū)未來經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會和環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展較為理想的模式。研究結(jié)果可為該地區(qū)土地規(guī)劃、區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)參考。
[Abstract]:At present, human activities affect the land use pattern and its change. Therefore, to explore the cause and mechanism of land use change, simulation of the future land use pattern of the current land policy, has important significance to Fuling land planning. The lower reaches of Wujiang six counties as the research area, based on 1995, 2005, 2015 Landsat image solution the data, using GIS spatial analysis technology, CA-Markov model and MCE model, realize the spatio-temporal patterns of land use simulation. Combined with scenario analysis method on "rapid urbanization scenario", "scenario planning" and "ecological protection scenario" under the three modes of the study area in 2020, 2030, 2050, the land use pattern equivalent factor of ecosystem services value. Making reference to other scholars, combined with the actual situation in the study area, using the net primary productivity of vegetation, rainfall, soil data in the study area of the single Area ecosystem service function value equivalent to correction, and then through the ecosystem service value estimation method, the calculation of ecosystem services under different scenarios of the future research area. The results show that: (1) the study area is mainly farmland and woodland, and both accounted for 86% of the total area and more than 20 years. The process of farmland has experienced first decrease and then increase ", 10 years before the reduction of 451.85km2, the total area of cultivated land (1995) of the 6.84%, after 10 years of cultivated land area increased slightly, but the growth rate is relatively slow; on the contrary, woodland continued to increase in 20 years, an increase of 894.49 km2 in 2015 than in 1995, an average annual increase in addition to 0.4%., the area of grassland and unused land 20 years continue to decrease, especially the unused land decreased 590.61 km2, accounting for the total unused land area (1995) of the 80%, and mainly converted to farmland and woodland. Water area change is slightly undulating, but on the whole Amplitude. (2) the difference of land use dynamic degree of 20 years of the study area are obvious. The single land use dynamic degree, not use change greatly the maximum, 1995-2015 years to reach -8%; followed by the construction land, 10 years ago than 10 years after the change to be big, the overall trend is increasing year by year; the annual dynamic degree of cultivated land and woodland were less than 1%, while the former has slowly increased after the first reduction trend, the latter showed a slight increasing trend; grassland showing a decreasing trend, and the change of amplitude 10 years more; the overall water change is steady. The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use, three time around the comprehensive dynamic degree is less than 2%, among them, farmland, woodland, water area and construction land use dynamic degree is less than 1%, and the grassland and unused land between the comprehensive dynamic degree basically is 1%-2%, which shows that the study area land use change The overall magnitude or intensity, but the individual changes obviously. (3) the largest amount of cultivated land during the period of 1995-2005, 783.26 km2, 2.36 times to the total cultivated area is greatly reduced, can not be ignored. From the view of cultivated land types, ranked first is converted to woodland, the number is 627.93 km2. Transfer accounted for 80.17%. of the total area followed by the construction land, during which there is 112.38 km2 the conversion of cultivated land to construction land, accounting for 14.35%. of the total area to turn out from the type of view, unused land and forest to farmland were the largest number of conversion between 140 km2 and 116.09 km2.2005-2015 around the class of general and a the same year.1995-2015 land types in the study area are transferred into a large amount of land transfer type change obviously, and a three increase three decrease in the trend, namely, woodland, waters and the increase of construction land, Cultivated land, grassland and unused land decreased. (4) in the "rapid urbanization scenario", construction land expansion, 35 years the area has doubled, reaching 1390.46 km2, and the main source of cultivated land, accounting for about half of arable land transfer; forest growth is very slow, grassland and unused land continued to decline, to 2050 were reduced by 186.58 km2 and 69.40 km2, the unused land decreased by half. In the "Planning scenario", construction land is still growing rapidly, in 2050 increased 347.92 km2, an increase of 37.92%; reduction of cultivated land decreased, woodland increased than the "rapid urbanization scenario" to be fast, but grassland and unused land continues to decrease, 35 years were reduced by 25.9% and 44.3%. in the "ecological protection scenario", woodland, grassland, unused land and ecological land to recover and increase, by 2050, the ecological land total area of 64% building; A land sprawl is limited to 2050, the total area is 1171.42 km2, 219.04 km2 less than the same period of "rapid urbanization situation"; cultivated land has reduced gradually, but the balance remained above 6000 km2. (5) the study area under different scenarios of land use change of ecosystem services the value and the land utilization type area is closely related to the changes, i.e. when the ecosystem services unit when land area increase or decrease in the total value of ecosystem services directly lead to the corresponding increase or decrease in the future. Three scenarios, due to the presentation of "minus three, two increase of land use change in the study area, a flat trend, namely arable land, grassland and unused land decreased, woodland and construction land continued to increase, the overall water change is not obvious, the ecosystem service value also showed the same The change of trend. But the variation in the total value of ecosystem services of grassland ecological protection scenario of the changes of ecosystem service value was the smallest, and woodland, waters, and other ecological land ecosystem service value than the same period of "fast city scene", "Planning scenario" should be large, ecological and environmental effects it is also more obvious. Therefore, the "ecological protection scenario" is the research area of future economic, social and environmental coordinated development pattern is ideal. The research results can be used for land planning in the region, and provide scientific reference for regional sustainable development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2;P208

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