【摘要】：近幾年,“霧霾”成為一個時尚的新名詞,隨著污染發(fā)生的頻次不斷的增加和污染程度的程度加重,污染面積不斷的擴(kuò)大,這不僅影響了人們?nèi)粘Ｉ?還危及到了人們的健康,同時也造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。為此,本文探討成都市霧霾成因因子,結(jié)合中國氣象網(wǎng)、天氣后報等環(huán)境氣象網(wǎng)站查詢2013—2016年成都城市霧霾監(jiān)測的各類成因指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),分析不同成因因子的現(xiàn)狀特征,運(yùn)用聚類分析、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析等,建立成都城市霧霾成因相關(guān)性的數(shù)學(xué)模型,結(jié)合成都市霧霾成因因子,提出與霧霾相關(guān)的治理措施,本次研究的內(nèi)容和結(jié)果如下:1.從統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法研究出發(fā),分析成都城市霧霾形成的可能性因素,運(yùn)用各個霧霾因子的特征,得出霧霾分布具有明顯的季節(jié)性,冬季發(fā)生的頻率比較多,同時污染程度也比較嚴(yán)重,而夏季發(fā)生的頻率比較少,表明霧霾與季節(jié)變化有著密切的聯(lián)系。2.通過系統(tǒng)聚類對成都城市霧霾影響因子進(jìn)行聚類分析,將成都城市霧霾影響因子劃分為主要影響因子、次要影響因子和微弱影響因子3大類,將其中的主要影響因子(濕度、溫度、風(fēng)速、氣壓、SO_2、NO_2、CO、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、GDP、人口、汽車擁有量、耗能量、日照時間、降雨時長等)作相關(guān)性分析,得出成都城市霧霾各類主要影響因子之間的相關(guān)性系數(shù),空氣質(zhì)量指數(shù)AQI與PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、NO_2、O_3、氣溫、霧日天數(shù)、降雨天數(shù)、降雨量相關(guān)性強(qiáng),而與風(fēng)速、日照時間的相關(guān)性相對較弱。AQI與PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、NO_2、日照時間、霧日天數(shù)、風(fēng)速、氣壓之間呈現(xiàn)出明顯的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而與O_3的濃度、氣溫、降雨天數(shù)、降雨量之間存在明顯的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。3.運(yùn)用多層次線性回歸分析建立成都城市霧霾成因模型,通過對成都城市霧霾成因模型的仿真性分析,獲得成都市霧霾成因更正模型,并對其進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證分析,得知成都市霧霾成因模型的準(zhǔn)確性。4.結(jié)合成都城市建設(shè)的現(xiàn)狀及霧霾影響因子的主要來源,參考一些學(xué)者的研究成果,提出適合于成都城市霧霾生態(tài)防治的相關(guān)性建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, "haze" has become a new term in fashion. With the increasing frequency of pollution and the increasing degree of pollution, the area of pollution is constantly expanding, which not only affects people's daily life. It also endangers people's health and causes huge economic losses. For this reason, this paper probes into the factors of formation of haze in Chengdu, inquiring all kinds of cause index data of Chengdu city haze monitoring from 2013 to 2016, and analyzing the present situation characteristics of different factors, combining with the environmental meteorological websites such as China Meteorological Network, Weather Post report and so on. Based on cluster analysis and grey correlation analysis, this paper establishes the mathematical model of the genetic correlation of haze in Chengdu city. Combined with the haze genetic factors in Chengdu, the paper puts forward the relevant measures of governance related to haze. The contents and results of this study are as follows: 1. Based on the study of statistical methods, this paper analyzes the possible factors of the formation of haze in Chengdu city. By using the characteristics of each haze factor, it is concluded that the distribution of haze has obvious seasonality, and the frequency of occurrence in winter is more than that in winter. At the same time, the degree of pollution is serious, but the frequency of summer is less, indicating that haze is closely related to seasonal variation. 2. Based on the cluster analysis of the influencing factors of haze in Chengdu city, the influence factors of haze in Chengdu are divided into three categories: the main influencing factors, the minor influencing factors and the weak influencing factors. Temperature, wind speed, air pressure, SO_2,NO_2,CO,PM_ (2.5), PM_ (10), O _ s _ 3G _ DP, population, car ownership, energy consumption, sunshine time, rainfall duration, etc. The correlation coefficient between main influencing factors of haze in Chengdu city, air quality index AQI and PM_ (2.5), PM_ (10), SO_2,CO,NO_2,O_3, temperature, days of fog day, days of rainfall were obtained. The correlation between rainfall and wind speed and sunshine time is relatively weak. AQI and PM_ (2.5), PM_ (10), SO_2,CO,NO_2, sunshine time, days of fog day, wind speed, There was a significant positive correlation between the pressure and the concentration of O _ 3, air temperature, rainfall days and rainfall. There was a significant negative correlation between the pressure and the concentration of O _ 3, the days of rainfall and rainfall. 3. By using multilevel linear regression analysis to establish Chengdu city haze cause model, through the simulation analysis of Chengdu city haze cause model, get Chengdu city haze cause correction model, and carry on the verification analysis to it. To know the accuracy of haze genetic model in Chengdu. 4. Based on the present situation of Chengdu urban construction and the main sources of haze influencing factors, and referring to the research results of some scholars, the relevant suggestions for ecological control of haze in Chengdu are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X513

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