【摘要】：本文敘述美國學(xué)者關(guān)于此饑荒的研究,分析不同階段的研究背景、特點(diǎn)、研究人員、結(jié)論。論文重點(diǎn)放在饑荒成因和人口非正常死亡數(shù)字兩方面。關(guān)于饑荒成因,本文作了“天災(zāi)”、“人禍”等方面的分類。對(duì)于非正常死亡數(shù)字和少出生數(shù)字,文中介紹不同學(xué)科學(xué)者運(yùn)用不同方法計(jì)算出的人口數(shù)字。本文綜合各時(shí)期的研究成果,以系統(tǒng)介紹美國學(xué)者的研究狀況。論文還通過對(duì)各個(gè)時(shí)期發(fā)文的比較,對(duì)比不同的研究方法,分析其時(shí)代背景,闡述各學(xué)者的研究成果。 初期的評(píng)論主要是時(shí)事性的,較少深層次的學(xué)術(shù)探究。各界普遍認(rèn)為中國只是發(fā)生了糧食短缺問題,而且已經(jīng)得到解決。受資料信息的限制,20世紀(jì)60年代美國學(xué)者關(guān)于饑荒的研究基本停留在糧食短缺問題層面上,沒有更進(jìn)一步的探討,這也使得此后相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期,研究沒有突破性的進(jìn)展。 中國實(shí)行改革開放以后,原來封閉的資料陸續(xù)公開,西方學(xué)者開始進(jìn)行比較系統(tǒng)的研究。人口統(tǒng)計(jì)資料公布之后,饑荒成了研究熱點(diǎn)。學(xué)者研究判定饑荒確實(shí)存在,系統(tǒng)地分析饑荒的原因,并對(duì)人口損失數(shù)字的作了估算。 關(guān)于非正常死亡人口數(shù)字,學(xué)者多以戶籍系統(tǒng)為依據(jù),利用人口學(xué)方法做了估計(jì)。由于估計(jì)的前提和統(tǒng)計(jì)的年代不同、使用的數(shù)據(jù)不同,以及說統(tǒng)計(jì)方法不同,因而建立在龐大的人口基數(shù)上的計(jì)算結(jié)果相差懸殊。不過也有學(xué)者在使用人口統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)候,對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)作了修正。 近些年的學(xué)者,在現(xiàn)存資料的基礎(chǔ)上,采用西方的理論框架來闡述和分析課題。政治學(xué)者除采用抽象的分析工具以外,也更為注重史實(shí);而經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者引用微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論,更傾向于尋求較為單一的因果關(guān)系。新的研究方法的引入,使得饑荒研究越來越具有實(shí)證性。對(duì)饑荒成因的判斷趨于的單一化,單一性因果解釋多于綜合分析。
[Abstract]:This paper describes American scholars' research on this famine, analyzes the background, characteristics, researchers and conclusions of different stages. This paper focuses on the causes of famine and the number of abnormal deaths of the population. As to the causes of famine, this paper classifies natural disasters and man-made disasters. For the number of abnormal deaths and the number of fewer births, this paper introduces the population figures calculated by different subjects and scholars using different methods. This paper systematically introduces the research situation of American scholars by synthesizing the research results of each period. Through the comparison of the papers published in different periods, this paper compares different research methods, analyzes the background of the times, and expounds the research results of various scholars. The initial comments are mainly current affairs, less deep-level academic inquiry. It is widely believed that China has only a food shortage problem, and has been resolved. Limited by the data and information, the study of famine by American scholars in the 1960s basically stayed on the level of food shortage, without further discussion, which also made no breakthrough progress in the research for a long time thereafter. After China's reform and opening up, the original closed materials have been open to the public, Western scholars began to carry out more systematic research. After the demographics were published, famine became a hot topic of study. Scholars have studied and determined the existence of famine, systematically analyzed the causes of famine, and estimated the number of population losses. On the number of abnormal deaths, scholars based on the household registration system, using the demographic method to estimate. Because the presupposition of estimation and the age of statistics are different, the data used are different, and the statistical methods are different, so the calculation results based on the large population base are very different. However, some scholars in the use of demographic data, the data have been revised. In recent years, scholars, on the basis of the existing data, use the western theoretical framework to explain and analyze the subject. In addition to using abstract analytical tools, political scholars also pay more attention to historical facts, while economists tend to seek a single causality by referring to microeconomic theory. With the introduction of new research methods, famine research is becoming more and more positive. The judgment of the cause of famine tends to be unitary, and the single causal explanation is more than the comprehensive analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：K27

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉彥文;水利、社會(huì)與政治[D];華東師范大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號(hào)：2414046