本文選題：清代 + 云南　； 參考：《復旦大學》2005年博士論文

【摘要】：云南地處北半球低緯高原,由于其特殊的地理位置,受到多種季風環(huán)流的影響。其氣候的演變,有著自己顯著的特點。對這一地區(qū)的歷史氣候進行研究,討論其氣候變化的特點和機制,對亞洲季風和全球變化的研究,均有重要的意義。 本文主要利用檔案、方志和文集等歷史文獻中的相關資料,以恢復重建高分辨率的清代(1711-1911年)云南雨季開始期、昆明雨季強弱和冬季平均氣溫序列為中心,并進行相關的方法上的探索。主要的研究和結論如下: 通過系統(tǒng)的收集和整理檔案、方志和文集中存留的史料,建立了目前最完備的云南歷史氣候史料ACCESS數(shù)據庫。 初步探索清代氣象情況奏報制度的形成,并通過對清代檔案中降水、災害和收成資料的具體研究和分析,指出了其中存在的系統(tǒng)偏差及其原因,并提出了對歷史天氣資料系統(tǒng)偏差的檢驗方法。 探索了科學可行的利用文獻資料進行雨季開始期序列復原的方法,并成功地對云南1711-1911年間的雨季早晚進行復原。分析表明,云南雨季開始期在長時段上有明顯的變化,并存在明顯的準3年和11年周期,這在一定程度上反映了云南夏季風的變遷。同時發(fā)現(xiàn),El Nino事件對云南雨季的開始期有重要的影響,但這種影響存在明顯減弱的時期�？赡芤馕吨鳨NSO事件對亞洲夏季風的影響存在某種震蕩。 結合歷史資料的情況,探索精度介于降水量復原和旱澇等級間的降水等級的復原方法,并嘗試采用了更符合降水實際情況的偏態(tài)分布。采取了一系列針對資料存在的系統(tǒng)偏差問題的糾偏措施,取得了滿意的效果。分析表明,1711-1911年201年間昆明雨季降水可分為4個大的階段,其變遷有自己的特點。太陽活動的長周期有可能影響到昆明的雨季降水。 建立冬季降雪和干季降水的雙因子回歸方程,恢復了1721-1855年間昆明的冬季平均溫度序列,這是目前重建的低緯度地區(qū)第一個高分辨率的歷史氣溫序列。并利用其它資料補出了1856-1900年間的10年冬季平均溫度序列。分析表明,18-19世紀昆明皆處于偏冷的時期,但又有一定的波動,且昆明氣溫存在躍升現(xiàn)象。而和全國其它地方比較,則其冷暖的變化有很多的差異性。 對發(fā)生在1815-1817年間遍及云南大部分地區(qū)的大饑荒的氣候成因進行了考察,指出大饑荒是連年夏秋低溫導致的農作物大幅減產造成的,其原因為印度尼西亞坦博拉火山噴發(fā)。這次低溫應在全國范圍內都存在,但僅在低緯高原地區(qū)和北方農牧交錯帶附近造成較大影響。 對1905-1907年間云南連續(xù)性的嚴重旱澇災害的天氣成因進行了具體分析,指出1905年和1907年的先早后澇都有El Nino事件的背景,而1906年的大旱
[Abstract]:Yunnan is located in the low latitude plateau of the Northern Hemisphere, which is influenced by various monsoon circulation because of its special geographical location. The evolution of its climate has its own remarkable characteristics. It is of great significance to study the historical climate of this region, to discuss the characteristics and mechanisms of climate change, and to study the Asian monsoon and global change. The relevant data in the historical documents such as local chronicles and collections of papers are used to restore and reconstruct the high-resolution Qing Dynasty 1711-1911) the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan, the intensity of the rainy season in Kunming and the winter mean temperature series as the center, and the relevant methods are explored. The main research and conclusions are as follows: through the systematic collection and collation of archives, local chronicles and collected historical materials, Established the most complete access database of historical and climatic data of Yunnan at present. It preliminarily explored the formation of the report system of meteorological information in the Qing Dynasty, and through the specific research and analysis of precipitation, disaster and harvest data in the archives of the Qing Dynasty, This paper points out the system deviation and its causes, and puts forward a method to check the system deviation of historical weather data. The scientific and feasible method of restoring the sequence of the beginning of rainy season by using the literature data is explored. The rainy season of 1711-1911 in Yunnan was successfully restored. The analysis shows that the onset of the rainy season in Yunnan has obvious changes in a long period, and there are obvious quasi-3-year and 11-year cycles, which to some extent reflect the change of Yunnan summer monsoon. It is also found that the El Nino event has an important influence on the onset of the rainy season in Yunnan, but there is an obvious weakening period of this effect. It may mean that the ENSO event has some kind of oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon. In the light of historical data, this paper explores the methods of restoring precipitation grades with precision between precipitation recovery and drought and flood levels. The skewness distribution which is more in line with the actual precipitation is also tried. A series of correction measures are adopted to solve the problem of systematic deviation of data, and satisfactory results are obtained. The analysis shows that precipitation in the rainy season of Kunming from 1711 to 1911 201 can be divided into four stages, and its evolution has its own characteristics. The long period of solar activity may affect the precipitation in the rainy season in Kunming. The regression equations of winter snow and dry season precipitation are established, and the winter mean temperature series of Kunming from 1721 to 1855 are restored. This is the first high resolution historical temperature series currently reconstructed in low latitudes. Using other data, the 10-year winter mean temperature series from 1856 to 1900 is obtained. The analysis shows that Kunming is in the cold period in the 18th and 19th century, but there are some fluctuations, and the temperature in Kunming has a phenomenon of jump. Compared with other parts of the country, there are many differences between the cold and warm changes. The climatic causes of the great famine that occurred in most parts of Yunnan from 1815 to 1817 were investigated. It is pointed out that the famine is caused by the sharp decrease in crop production caused by successive summer and autumn low temperatures, which is caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia. This low temperature should exist all over the country, but only in the low latitude plateau area and near the agricultural and pastoral ecotone in the north. The causes of the continuous severe drought and flood disasters in Yunnan during 1905-1907 are analyzed concretely. It is pointed out that the background of El Nino events existed in 1905 and 1907, and the severe drought in 1906.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2005
【分類號】：K249

【引證文獻】

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本文編號：2008660