發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-19 17:46

【摘要】：本文基于最新的GTAP9數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),將石化產(chǎn)業(yè)作為敏感產(chǎn)業(yè)并設(shè)定3種不同的模擬情景分析了中國(guó)-海合會(huì)FTA對(duì)不同國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,結(jié)果顯示:中國(guó)-海合會(huì)FTA對(duì)成員國(guó)有較強(qiáng)的正面效應(yīng),但對(duì)雙方共同的主要貿(mào)易伙伴和"一帶一路"其他沿線國(guó)家產(chǎn)生不同程度的反向沖擊。中國(guó)和海合會(huì)應(yīng)加快談判進(jìn)程以早日獲得貿(mào)易自由化收益,并規(guī)避受損國(guó)家可能的暗中掣肘,同時(shí)發(fā)揮中國(guó)-海合會(huì)FTA的示范效應(yīng)和"多米諾骨牌"效應(yīng),拓展與"一帶一路"沿線FTA的廣度和深度,深入推進(jìn)"一帶一路"倡議。
[Abstract]:Based on the latest GTAP9 database, this paper takes petrochemical industry as a sensitive industry and sets up three different simulation scenarios to analyze the economic impact of China-GCC FTA on different countries. The results show that the China-GCC FTA has a strong positive effect on the member countries, but it has different degrees of reverse impact on the main trading partners and other countries along Belt and Road. China and GCC should speed up the process of negotiations in order to achieve early gains from trade liberalization, and avoid the possible hidden constraints of damaged countries, and at the same time bring into play the demonstration effect and "domino" effect of the China-GCC FTA, Expand the breadth and depth of FTA along Belt and Road, and push on the Belt and Road initiative in depth.
【作者單位】： 海南大學(xué)外國(guó)語(yǔ)學(xué)院;海南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):71563010) 海南省教育廳高等學(xué)�？茖W(xué)研究重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目成果(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):Hnky2017ZD-7) 海南省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)2015年規(guī)劃課題成果(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):HNSK(ZC)15-24)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F744

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