本文選題：泥石流災(zāi)害　切入點：危險性　出處：《自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：河西走廊是絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶的黃金段和紐帶,在國家"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略中區(qū)位特殊,地位重要。以甘肅省地質(zhì)災(zāi)害報告數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合河西走廊地形地貌、水文、土壤和植被等情況,選取高程標準差、坡度、表層0~100 cm內(nèi)的粘粒和砂粒含量、5-10月降雨量、河網(wǎng)密度和植被覆蓋度等7個環(huán)境變量,利用Arc GIS技術(shù)建立了泥石流溝發(fā)育樣點和環(huán)境變量空間分布圖層,構(gòu)建了河西走廊泥石流災(zāi)害危險性最大熵(Max Ent)分布模型,預(yù)測了河西走廊泥石流災(zāi)害危險性分布概率P,劃分危險性等級,完成了河西走廊泥石流災(zāi)害危險性評價制圖,并分析了各環(huán)境變量對P的貢獻率和響應(yīng)曲線。結(jié)果表明:P為0~0.95;其中,極高度危險區(qū)(0.5≤P≤0.95)面積約2.57萬km~2,約占河西走廊總面積的9.92%;高度危險區(qū)(0.2≤P0.5)面積約4.11萬km~2,約占河西走廊總面積的15.87%;中度危險區(qū)(0.09≤P0.2)約4.90萬km~2,約占河西走廊總面積的18.92%;低度危險區(qū)(0≤P0.09)約14.32萬km~2,約占河西走廊總面積的55.29%。
[Abstract]:The Hexi Corridor is the golden section and tie of the Silk Road economic belt. It has a special location and an important position in the national "Belt and Road" strategy. Based on the geological disaster report data of Gansu Province, and combined with the topography and geomorphology of the Hexi Corridor, the hydrology of Hexi Corridor, In soil and vegetation conditions, seven environmental variables, such as elevation standard deviation, slope, clay and sand content within 100 cm of surface layer and rainfall in May to October, river network density and vegetation coverage, were selected. Using Arc GIS technique, the spatial distribution layer of debris flow gully and environmental variables is established, and the maximum entropy Max Ent distribution model of debris flow hazard in Hexi Corridor is constructed. The probability of risk distribution of debris flow in Hexi Corridor is predicted, and the risk grade is classified, and the hazard assessment mapping of debris flow in Hexi Corridor is completed. The contribution rate and response curve of environmental variables to P were analyzed. Extremely high risk area 0. 5 鈮，

本文編號：1646266