本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對(duì)外直接投資 政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 空間溢出 鄰國(guó)　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)管理》2017年11期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文創(chuàng)新性地引入"鄰國(guó)"因素,構(gòu)建了反映對(duì)外直接投資與政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)內(nèi)在聯(lián)系的理論模型,從理論層面上揭示了鄰國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)東道國(guó)吸引海外投資的影響。理論模型結(jié)果顯示,廠商最大的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防備策略水平與鄰國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān),即鄰國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)越大時(shí),廠商所采取政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防備策略水平越高,廠商的利潤(rùn)越低。因此,評(píng)估我國(guó)企業(yè)海外投資政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)必須同時(shí)考慮鄰國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的溢出效應(yīng)。進(jìn)一步地,選取2003—2015年中國(guó)對(duì)"一帶一路"沿線17個(gè)國(guó)家海外投資的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),建立同時(shí)包含東道國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素和鄰國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的空間計(jì)量模型。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,東道國(guó)腐敗控制對(duì)中國(guó)海外投資具有顯著的抑制作用。如果考慮到鄰國(guó)空間溢出效應(yīng)的作用,鄰國(guó)的腐敗程度控制、內(nèi)部沖突減弱、外部沖突減緩以及宗教氛圍自由都會(huì)對(duì)東道國(guó)產(chǎn)生正向的溢出效應(yīng),即能促進(jìn)中國(guó)企業(yè)增加對(duì)東道國(guó)的投資;而鄰國(guó)的政局穩(wěn)定性較高、法制水平健全、與東道國(guó)建交時(shí)間長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定以及種族沖突緩和則對(duì)東道國(guó)產(chǎn)生了顯著的負(fù)向溢出效應(yīng),即促進(jìn)更多中國(guó)企業(yè)到鄰國(guó)投資,相應(yīng)地減少對(duì)東道國(guó)投資規(guī)模。
[Abstract]:This paper innovatively introduces the "neighboring countries" factor, and constructs a theoretical model reflecting the internal relationship between foreign direct investment and political risk. The theoretical model shows that the maximum level of the firm's political risk prevention strategy is positively related to the spillover effect of the neighboring country's political risk. That is, the greater the spillover effect of political risk in neighbouring countries, the higher the level of political risk prevention strategy adopted by the firm, and the lower the profit of the firm. To assess the political risk of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment, we must also consider the spillover effect of political risk from neighboring countries. Furthermore, we should select the relevant statistics of China's overseas investment in 17 countries along "Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2015. Establish a spatial measurement model that includes the political risk factors of the host country and the political risk factors of the neighboring countries. The host country's corruption control has a significant inhibitory effect on China's overseas investment. Considering the spatial spillover effect of neighboring countries, the degree of corruption in neighboring countries is controlled, and internal conflicts are weakened. Both the mitigation of external conflicts and the freedom of religious atmosphere will have a positive spillover effect on the host country, that is, it can promote Chinese enterprises to increase their investment in the host country, while the political stability of neighbouring countries is relatively high, and the level of the rule of law is sound. The long-term stability of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the host country and the relaxation of the ethnic conflict have a significant negative spillover effect on the host country, that is, to promote more Chinese enterprises to invest in neighbouring countries, and to reduce the scale of investment in the host country accordingly.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F125;F279.2
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本文編號(hào)：1505545