【摘要】：未婚先孕和婚前流產(chǎn)不僅反映中國(guó)青年婚姻和性相關(guān)的觀(guān)念、實(shí)踐的變化,也意味著潛在的健康威脅與公共服務(wù)需求。文章針對(duì)既有研究的數(shù)據(jù)偏差和理論不足提出改進(jìn)的數(shù)據(jù)采集方案與解釋框架,利用2013年"流動(dòng)人口動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)調(diào)查"數(shù)據(jù)的生育史信息,對(duì)流動(dòng)人口未婚先孕水平和模式進(jìn)行探索,并采用競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件史模型驗(yàn)證了婚前流動(dòng)對(duì)未婚先孕的影響及其異質(zhì)性。結(jié)果表明,流動(dòng)?jì)D女中有20%~25%會(huì)經(jīng)歷以生育結(jié)束的未婚先孕,加上以流產(chǎn)結(jié)束的部分,未婚先孕發(fā)生率會(huì)更高;婚前流動(dòng)會(huì)顯著提高未婚先孕幾率;初次外出時(shí)年齡越小,流出時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),未婚先孕幾率越高;婚前流動(dòng)經(jīng)歷對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)戶(hù)籍、教育水平較低的流動(dòng)?jì)D女發(fā)生未婚先孕的影響更大。
[Abstract]:Pregnancy before marriage and abortion before marriage not only reflect the change of marriage and sex related concepts but also mean the potential health threat and public service demand. Aiming at the data deviation and theoretical deficiency of the existing research, the paper puts forward an improved data collection scheme and interpretation framework, and uses the reproductive history information of the data from the "floating population dynamic Monitoring Survey" in 2013. This paper explores the level and model of unmarried first pregnancy in floating population, and uses the competitive risk event history model to verify the influence and heterogeneity of pre-marital mobility on unmarried first pregnancy. The results showed that 20% of the floating women experienced unmarried pregnancy at the end of childbearing, and the incidence of unmarried first pregnancy was higher than that of abortion, and the probability of unmarried pregnancy was significantly increased by pre-marital mobility. The younger the age, the longer the outflow time, the higher the probability of unmarried pregnancy; the greater the impact of pre-marital mobility on agricultural household registration, lower education level of migrant women unmarried pregnancy.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)中國(guó)調(diào)查與數(shù)據(jù)中心、社會(huì)與人口學(xué)院;北京大學(xué)社會(huì)學(xué)系;
【基金】：2014年北京市教育規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編碼AAA13002)的階段性成果
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C913.1;C913.68

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