【摘要】：本文使用1982年、1990年、2000年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)和1982年、1992年、2001年生育率調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),按照Glick提出的家庭生命周期的基本模型,詳細分析了從1980年到2000年之間家庭生命周期的變化過程,包括初婚、初婚初育間隔、生育最后一個子女、第一個子女離家、最后一個子女離家、喪偶和死亡等重大生命事件,并將家庭生命周期按照核心家庭的歷史,劃分為形成、擴展、擴展完成、收縮、收縮完成和解體六個階段。從家庭生命周期階段持續(xù)年數(shù)的整體變動來看,家庭形成階段的變化不大。家庭生命周期階段持續(xù)時間的主要變動在形成階段之后的五個階段均有較大改變,其原因就是生育數(shù)量和死亡率的變化。由于生育子女數(shù)量的減少,家庭擴展階段持續(xù)年數(shù)顯著減少,由此帶來的后果是擴展完成階段持續(xù)年數(shù)的增加,而生育子女數(shù)量和年齡又影響到第一個子女離家時和最后一個子女離家時的年齡。家庭解體階段中,男性持續(xù)時間相對較短,而女性持續(xù)時間相對較長,三個年度分析結(jié)果均顯示女性持續(xù)時間在十年以上。 除了對家庭生命周期進行分析之外,本文還用1990年和2000年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)分縣資料,使用分層線性模式的分析方法對家庭規(guī)模影響因素加以分析,試圖厘清現(xiàn)代化和人口轉(zhuǎn)變與家庭規(guī)模變動之間的關(guān)系。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)在生育政策穩(wěn)定和人口轉(zhuǎn)變基本完成之后,生育政策對家庭規(guī)模變化的影響帶有一定的不確定性,進而也會影響到家庭生命周期變化的方向。同樣使用2000年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)分縣資料對離婚人口比例的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),中國男性和女性的離婚比例變動模式是不一致的。 此外,本文還使用了人口普查數(shù)據(jù)分析中國家庭戶的立戶水平,從分析結(jié)果總體來看,中國獨門立戶的狀況沒有發(fā)生根本性的變化,標準化的立戶指數(shù)標I h和I′h變動都是較小,男性戶主仍然占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)性的地位,說明中國的家庭制度變革是較為緩慢的。成年人口的比例始終與立戶水平有很穩(wěn)健的聯(lián)系,而且其相關(guān)程度越來越高,這說明中國人口獨門立戶遵循的一個重要原則是成年之后才離開家庭。同時也能夠發(fā)現(xiàn),未婚男性、未婚女性和無配偶女性的立戶水平增長的尤為迅速。 中國家庭變遷受到以嚴格生育政策代表的社會制度變革和社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展雙重影響,家庭生命周期的變動也不可避免是雙重影響疊加的后果。本文進一步分析了家庭生命周期的經(jīng)濟社會影響,并提出了相應(yīng)的政策應(yīng)對,還闡述了對中國家庭生命周期研究需要持續(xù)關(guān)注的重點問題。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the data of the 1982, 1990, 2000 census and the 1982, 1992, 2001 fertility survey data, according to the basic model of family life cycle proposed by Glick. The changes in the family life cycle from 1980 to 2000 are analyzed in detail, including major life events such as first marriage, spacing between first marriage and early childbearing, birth of the last child, first child leaving home, last child leaving home, widowhood and death, etc. According to the history of the nuclear family, the family life cycle is divided into six stages: formation, expansion, completion, contraction and disintegration. From the overall change of the number of years in the family life cycle, the change of the family formation stage is not significant. The main changes in the duration of the family life cycle are all changed in the five stages after the forming stage, which is due to the changes in the number of births and the death rate. As a result of the decrease in the number of children born, the number of years in the extended family expansion phase has been significantly reduced, with the consequence of an increase in the number of years that will last in the completion phase of the expansion, The number and age of children have an effect on the age of the first child and the last child. In the stage of family disintegration, the duration of men is relatively short, while that of women is relatively long. The results of three annual analyses show that the duration of women is more than ten years. In addition to the analysis of the family life cycle, the data of 1990 and 2000 censuses are used to analyze the influencing factors of family size by using the hierarchical linear model. Try to clarify the relationship between modernization and demographic changes and changes in household size. It is found that after the stability of fertility policy and the completion of population transition, the influence of fertility policy on family size change is uncertain, which will also affect the direction of family life cycle change. Using the 2000 census data to analyze the proportion of divorced population by county, it is found that the pattern of variation of divorce ratio between Chinese men and women is not the same. In addition, the paper also uses census data to analyze the household level of Chinese households. Overall, the situation of single-door households in China has not changed fundamentally. The standardized household indices I h and I h are both small, and male heads of household still dominate, indicating that China's family system change is slow. The proportion of the adult population is always closely related to the household level, and the correlation is increasing, which indicates that one of the important principles followed by the Chinese population is to leave the family after adulthood. At the same time, it can also be found that unmarried men, unmarried women and spousal women are growing rapidly. Family change in China is influenced by social system change and social economic development represented by strict fertility policy. The change of family life cycle is inevitably the result of double influence superposition. This paper further analyzes the economic and social impact of the family life cycle, puts forward the corresponding policy responses, and expounds the key issues that need to be continuously paid attention to in the study of the family life cycle in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C913.11

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