【摘要】：探討一種基于突變理論的針對顛覆性技術(shù)的科技評價方法。運(yùn)用數(shù)學(xué)建模法即尖點(diǎn)型突變方程構(gòu)建顛覆性技術(shù)的預(yù)測模型,其新穎之處是以創(chuàng)新發(fā)展為評價導(dǎo)向,在現(xiàn)有企業(yè)層次微觀模型基礎(chǔ)上提出國家層次宏觀模型的變量方案。研究結(jié)果是以科技替代率為勢函數(shù)行為變量、以科技評價引導(dǎo)的社會認(rèn)可度和創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動發(fā)展力度為控制變量的新型預(yù)測模型。本文的結(jié)論是:如果以替代率為果、認(rèn)可度和創(chuàng)新力為因的顛覆性技術(shù)演化過程具有如模型所示的量化關(guān)系,那么以創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動發(fā)展為導(dǎo)向的科技評價便對技術(shù)發(fā)展臨界狀態(tài)的調(diào)控具有重要作用。本文為科技評價和創(chuàng)新政策決策等領(lǐng)域研究者提供理論參考。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses a scientific and technological evaluation method for subversive technology based on catastrophe theory. The prediction model of subversive technology is constructed by using the mathematical modeling method, that is, the cusp catastrophe equation. The novelty of the model is to take innovation and development as the evaluation direction, and on the basis of the existing micro models at the enterprise level, the variable scheme of the macroscopic model at the national level is put forward. The result of the study is a new prediction model, which takes the rate of substitution of science and technology as the potential function behavior variable, and takes the social acceptance and innovation driving force of science and technology evaluation as the control variables. The conclusion of this paper is that if the substitution rate is taken as the result, the evolutionary process of subversive technology with recognition and innovation as the cause has the quantitative relationship as shown in the model. Then the innovation-driven development-oriented evaluation of science and technology will play an important role in the regulation of the critical state of technological development. This paper provides a theoretical reference for researchers in science and technology evaluation and innovation policy decision.
【作者單位】： 中國科協(xié)創(chuàng)新戰(zhàn)略研究院;清華大學(xué)—中國科學(xué)院學(xué)部科學(xué)與社會協(xié)同發(fā)展研究中心;
【基金】：中國科協(xié)創(chuàng)新戰(zhàn)略研究院資助項(xiàng)目“2049年的中國:科技與社會展望的理論方法研究”,編號:2016ys2-3,起止時間:2016.3.-12
【分類號】：C91-0

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