本文選題：3E系統(tǒng) + 協(xié)調(diào)度　； 參考：《湖南大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型作為能源、經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境發(fā)展綜合評價與規(guī)劃的重要工具，有著廣泛的應用前景。隨著計量技術(shù)的發(fā)展，協(xié)調(diào)度評價方法也不斷革新，為實際應用提供了多種選擇。針對目前已有協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的多樣性及差異性，本文依據(jù)模型協(xié)調(diào)度衡量標準的不同，將常見協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型分為距離型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型、變化型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型及綜合型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型三大類。通過對三類協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的原理和計算方法的比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)三類協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的構(gòu)建角度、基本假設、基本原理、計算式及應用前提雖存在較大差異，但三類協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型中的典型代表模型離差系數(shù)最小化協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型、發(fā)展速度一致性協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型和整體協(xié)調(diào)度模型具有相同的測算基礎。在此基礎上，構(gòu)建3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評價指標體系，以湖南省2000—2011年3E系統(tǒng)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，選取離差系數(shù)最小化協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型、發(fā)展速度一致性協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型和整體協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型作為實證應用模型，分別測算出湖南省3E系統(tǒng)的距離型協(xié)調(diào)度、變化型協(xié)調(diào)度和綜合型協(xié)調(diào)度，并運用EVIEWS統(tǒng)計軟件和SPSS判別分析法的第一類錯判率及第二類錯判率分別對實證結(jié)果的差異性和準確性進行比較。結(jié)果表明：三類協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的測算結(jié)果具有較大的差異性，一般情況下，距離型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型和綜合型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的測算結(jié)果比較接近，而變化型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的測算結(jié)果則波動較大且比其他兩種模型的測算結(jié)果偏高；準確性方面，距離型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的第一類錯判率和第二類錯判率最低，，評價準確度最高，綜合型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型其次，變化型協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的第一類錯判率和第二類錯判率均較高，評價準確度較低。最后，結(jié)合本文各方面的比較及應用，得出結(jié)論。 本文創(chuàng)新性地對目前常見的3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型進行比較及其應用研究，具有重要的理論與實際意義。它不僅為當前全球關注的熱點問題——能源、經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，尤其為不同情況下3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評價模型的選擇提供了理論參考，而且有助于人們更準確全面地認識湖南省能源、經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展狀況，為湖南省構(gòu)建兩型社會和實施可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供了重要理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:As an important tool for comprehensive evaluation and planning of energy, economic and environmental development, 3e system coordination evaluation model has a wide application prospect. With the development of measurement technology, the evaluation method of coordination degree has been innovated, which provides many choices for practical application. In view of the diversity and difference of the existing coordination degree evaluation models, this paper divides the common coordination degree evaluation model into the distance coordination degree evaluation model according to the different evaluation standards of the coordination degree of the model. There are three kinds of evaluation models of variable coordination degree and comprehensive coordination degree. By comparing the principles and calculation methods of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models, it is found that there are great differences in the construction angles, basic assumptions, basic principles, calculation formulas and application premises of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models. However, the typical representative model of three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models, such as the deviation coefficient minimization coordination evaluation model, the development speed consistency coordination evaluation model and the overall coordination degree model, have the same calculation basis. On this basis, the evaluation index system of coordination degree of 3e system is constructed. Based on the time series data of 3e system from 2000 to 2011 in Hunan Province, the minimum coordination degree evaluation model of deviation coefficient is selected. The evaluation model of speed consistency coordination degree and the overall coordination degree evaluation model are used as empirical application models to calculate the distance coordination degree, variation coordination degree and comprehensive coordination degree of Hunan 3e system, respectively. The difference and accuracy of the empirical results are compared by using EVIEWS statistical software and SPSS discriminant analysis. The results show that the results of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models are quite different. In general, the calculation results of the distance coordination degree evaluation model and the comprehensive coordination degree evaluation model are close to each other. On the other hand, the results of the variable coordination degree evaluation model fluctuate greatly and are higher than those of the other two models, and the accuracy of the distance coordination degree evaluation model is the lowest in the first category and the second type. The evaluation accuracy is the highest, the evaluation model of comprehensive coordination degree is the second, the first type error rate and the second type error rate of the variable coordination degree evaluation model are both high, and the evaluation accuracy is low. Finally, combined with the comparison and application of various aspects of this paper, a conclusion is drawn. In this paper, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to compare and apply the commonly used evaluation models of 3e system coordination degree. It not only provides a theoretical reference for the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment, but also for the selection of evaluation model of 3e system coordination degree in different situations. It also helps people to understand the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment in Hunan Province more accurately and comprehensively, and provides an important theoretical basis for the construction of a two-type society and the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development in Hunan Province.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：C81

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本文編號：1957180