本文選題：社會風險　切入點：社會風險預警　出處：《華中師范大學》2011年博士論文

【摘要】：關注風險與和諧是人類社會的永恒話題。目前,處于急劇社會轉型期的中國也正面臨著諸多社會風險的威脅與挑戰(zhàn)。加強社會風險預警,建構一套科學實用并符合中國國情的社會風險預警指標體系乃是當前擺在人們面前的重大理論問題和現(xiàn)實問題。只有建構社會風險預警指標體系,才能適時監(jiān)控社會風險的發(fā)展狀態(tài),及時發(fā)布各種社會風險警情,尤其是及時發(fā)布那些重大社會風險警報,從而為政府部門制定相關政策提供參考依據(jù),并動員社會力量將風險控制在社會承受力范圍之內(nèi),以防患于未然。由此可見,社會風險預警指標體系建構是建設和諧社會,實現(xiàn)社會良性運行與協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的必然選擇�；诖�,本論文在國內(nèi)外相關理論的指導下,分析轉型期的重大社會風險源,探討指標體系建構的結構模型,并依據(jù)科學方法建構一套社會風險預警指標體系及各級指標的權重,將指標體系應用在轉型期社會風險的綜合評價中。 論文關注的主要問題有：建構社會風險預警指標體系需要從哪些理論中吸取養(yǎng)分,如何將抽象的理論轉化為具體的指標,采用什么樣的方法選擇指標并確定指標的權重,如何進行風險的綜合評價?總之,建構社會風險預警指標體系,科學理論的指導和方法的應用是兩大關鍵。 基于此,本文的主要研究內(nèi)容包括： 導論。主要說明本研究的緣起和意義,檢視和評論國內(nèi)外已有的研究,界定了主要概念,并交待了行文邏輯以及研究方法。 第一章,研究社會風險預警的理論基礎,討論風險社會理論、社會沖突理論等在社會風險預警指標體系建構中所具有的啟發(fā)意義。 第二章,分析轉型期中國社會風險源,為社會風險預警指標體系的建構提供現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。首先探討社會轉型與社會風險的內(nèi)在邏輯,揭示工業(yè)化、城市化、市場化和全球化與社會風險的關聯(lián)；其次,根據(jù)轉型期中國社會發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,探討和研究當前主要社會風險的基本現(xiàn)狀,尤其關注的是與民生息息相關的、結構性和制度性的各種風險,包括人口風險、經(jīng)濟生活風險、社會生活風險、政治生活風險、文化心理風險和自然生態(tài)風險；最后,分析轉型時期社會風險具有的復合性、結構性、擴散性、多發(fā)性和高危性等特征,從而再現(xiàn)了轉型期中國的社會風險景象。 第三章,研究社會風險預警指標體系建構中的結構模型。社會指標體系建構的過程實質(zhì)上就是從理論到模型再到指標的逐步操作化的過程。結構模型將抽象的理論和具體的指標聯(lián)接起來,從而為下一步指標體系的設計提供有力的理論支撐和方法指導。本章提出了轉型時期社會風險景象圖、社會風險預警指標體系建構的三維圖,詳細分析了社會風險預警指標體系建構的時間維結構模型和邏輯維結構模型。 第四章,建構轉型期中國社會風險預警指標體系。這是本文研究的重點,主要討論指標體系建構的基本原則和出發(fā)點,根據(jù)專家咨詢方法和社會統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)分析,設計包含六個一級指標、十九個二級指標、四十八個三級指標的社會風險預警指標體系的基本框架,并對具體指標含義作出解釋。 第五章,確定社會風險預警指標體系各級指標的權重。在專家咨詢的基礎上,應用聚類分析、冪法、相似系數(shù)加權等一系列技術手段,將專家的主觀判斷和統(tǒng)計技術結合起來,將定性研究和定量研究結合起來,從而保證了權重確定的科學性。 第六章,綜合評價轉型期中國社會風險狀況。根據(jù)本文建立的社會風險預警指標體系,收集各種統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)和調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),將預警指標進行無量綱化變換并構造社會風險綜合評價模型后,對當前中國的社會風險狀況做全面的評估,計算出總體風險指標值和各二級指標的風險值。 第七章,結論及展望。主要對本研究中所涉及的有關理論和方法問題所作的全面歸納及提升,并在此基礎上提出有待進一步探討的問題。
[Abstract]:It is an eternal topic of human society to pay attention to risk and harmony . At present , China is facing many threats and challenges of social risks . At present , it is an inevitable choice to construct a set of scientific and practical social risk alert indicators .

The main problems of this paper are : how to construct the index system of social risk pre - warning , how to absorb nutrients from the theories , how to transform abstract theory into specific index , how to select the index and determine the weight of the index , how to carry out the comprehensive evaluation of risk ?

Based on this , the main research contents include :

This paper mainly explains the origin and significance of the study , examines and reviews the existing studies at home and abroad , defines the main concepts , and submits the logic of the line and the research methods .

The first chapter is to study the theoretical foundation of social risk early warning , discuss the significance of risk society theory , social conflict theory and so on in the construction of social risk early warning index system .

The second chapter analyzes the social risk sources in the period of transition , and provides the realistic basis for the construction of the social risk early warning index system . Firstly , the internal logic of social transformation and social risk is discussed , and the correlation between industrialization , urbanization , marketization and globalization and social risk is revealed .
Secondly , according to the present situation of China ' s social development in the period of transition , the present situation of the present major social risks is discussed and studied , and the risks including population risk , economic life risk , social life risk , political life risk , cultural psychological risk and natural ecological risk are discussed .
Finally , it analyzes the characteristics of the social risks in the transitional period , such as compound , structural , diffuse , multiple and high - risk , and thus reproduces the social risk scene in the transitional period .

In the third chapter , the structure model in the construction of the index system of social risk early warning is studied . The process of constructing the social index system is from the theory to the model to the gradual operation of the index . The structural model provides powerful theoretical support and method guidance for the design of the next step index system . This chapter puts forward three - dimensional map of the social risk scene graph and the construction of the social risk early warning index system , and analyzes the time dimension structure model and the logical dimension structure model of the social risk early warning index system .

In chapter 4 , the index system of social risk early warning in China is set up . This is the focus of this paper . It mainly discusses the basic principles and starting points of the construction of the index system . According to the expert consultation method and the data analysis of social statistics , the basic frame of the social risk early warning index system including six primary indicators , nineteen second - level indicators and forty - eight third - level indicators is designed , and the meaning of the specific indicators is explained .

In the fifth chapter , the weights of indicators at all levels are determined . On the basis of expert consultation , a series of technical means such as cluster analysis , power method and similarity coefficient weighting are applied to combine subjective judgement and statistical techniques of experts , and qualitative research and quantitative research are combined to ensure the scientific nature of weight determination .

The sixth chapter comprehensively evaluates the social risk situation of China in the period of transition . According to the social risk early warning index system established in this paper , various statistical data and survey data are collected , the warning index is transformed and the comprehensive evaluation model of the social risk is constructed , and the risk value of the overall risk index value and each secondary index is calculated .

In chapter 7 , the conclusions and prospects are summarized and the problems related to the theory and method in this study are summarized and promoted , and the problems to be discussed further are put forward .

【學位授予單位】：華中師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C912

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本文編號：1698078