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辛普森悖論對(duì)描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析的啟示

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-01 10:17

  本文選題:辛普森悖論 切入點(diǎn):列聯(lián)表 出處:《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)》2017年08期


【摘要】:正在日常的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析實(shí)踐中,二元列聯(lián)表是應(yīng)用最為廣泛的統(tǒng)計(jì)工具之一。即使是很大型的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),在各類(lèi)統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件的輔助下也很容易得到海量的二元交叉列聯(lián)表;然而如何進(jìn)行描述性分析并不像表面上看起來(lái)那么簡(jiǎn)單。以辛普森悖論為代表的數(shù)據(jù)陷阱,一直是個(gè)無(wú)法回避的重要問(wèn)題,也是導(dǎo)致二元列聯(lián)表分析中最容易得出似是而非結(jié)論、不可不察之處。我們的探討也就從這個(gè)經(jīng)典悖論開(kāi)始。
[Abstract]:In the daily practice of statistical analysis, binary column table is one of the most widely used statistical tools.Even large survey data, with the help of various statistical software, it is easy to obtain a large number of binary cross-column tables; however, how to do descriptive analysis is not as simple as it seems.The data trap represented by Simpson Paradox has always been an important problem that can not be avoided. It is also the most easy to draw specious conclusions in the analysis of binary column tables.Our discussion begins with this classic paradox.
【作者單位】: 國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局信息景氣中心;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:C81

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