本文選題：養(yǎng)老金替代率　切入點(diǎn)：理論模型　出處：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)范疇內(nèi)，養(yǎng)老金替代率是衡量養(yǎng)老保障水平的一個(gè)概念，是退休人員養(yǎng)老金與職工工資的比率，既與社會(huì)收入水平相關(guān)，又影響著養(yǎng)老金支付水平。它關(guān)系到每一位老年人生活質(zhì)量和國(guó)家與社會(huì)的負(fù)擔(dān)能力，甚至關(guān)系到經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)態(tài)均衡、社會(huì)的和諧穩(wěn)定等若干方面。因此，養(yǎng)老金替代率是各國(guó)政府在養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)必須考慮的關(guān)鍵因素。 由于每個(gè)國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展水平不同、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度選擇不同及其改革方向不同，養(yǎng)老金替代率適度水平的確定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和確定方法就有所不同。我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的養(yǎng)老金替代率實(shí)際水平是否合理，以及合理的養(yǎng)老金替代率水平如何確定，是亟待深入探究的問(wèn)題。 從研究視角來(lái)說(shuō)，在養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度設(shè)計(jì)或制度改革的過(guò)程中，應(yīng)從保障老年人的生活消費(fèi)的角度，確定老年人的相對(duì)養(yǎng)老收益，，確定相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的養(yǎng)老金替代率；再根據(jù)養(yǎng)老金替代率的含義確定退休人員的養(yǎng)老金給付水平；進(jìn)而根據(jù)養(yǎng)老基金平衡的原則，由給付水平確定養(yǎng)老金的繳交水平。 從研究過(guò)程和方法來(lái)說(shuō)，第一，依據(jù)相關(guān)研究成果的綜述，運(yùn)用數(shù)理分析方法，初步選擇養(yǎng)老金替代率的影響因素，歸納關(guān)于養(yǎng)老金替代率的系統(tǒng)模塊；第二，理論分析系統(tǒng)模塊兩兩之間的作用機(jī)理，構(gòu)建關(guān)于養(yǎng)老金替代率的多個(gè)因素共存的、平衡穩(wěn)定的體系結(jié)構(gòu)；第三，運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型方法，構(gòu)建養(yǎng)老金替代率的理論模型，確定體系中各因素變量及其關(guān)系；第四，基于理論模型，結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)彈性原理，進(jìn)行養(yǎng)老金替代率適度水平的測(cè)算與確定；第五，基于替代率適度水平，進(jìn)行養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系其它關(guān)鍵參數(shù)的測(cè)算。 構(gòu)建的養(yǎng)老金替代率理論模型，內(nèi)含用十一個(gè)觀測(cè)變量反映的七個(gè)系統(tǒng)模塊，以及六個(gè)直接效應(yīng)、七個(gè)間接效應(yīng)和三個(gè)總體效應(yīng)，其是由最優(yōu)結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型的變量抽象和概念化后形成。其中，對(duì)于理論假設(shè)模型與實(shí)際觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的適配研究，采用宏觀面板數(shù)據(jù)，使用一般化最小平方法進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì)，運(yùn)用混合型結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型得到較佳的效果。 確定的養(yǎng)老金替代率是一個(gè)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定值，當(dāng)繳費(fèi)年限介于35至40年、工資增長(zhǎng)率介于5%至11%、記賬利率介于3%至6%時(shí)，養(yǎng)老金替代率適度水平位于39%至56%。以養(yǎng)老金替代率的適度水平為目標(biāo)，政府、單位與個(gè)人的基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)責(zé)任分擔(dān)比例應(yīng)是1：3.3：2.2，三者分別為4.55%、15%、10%的繳費(fèi)率最優(yōu)組合具有可行性；若根據(jù)上年養(yǎng)老金水平調(diào)整養(yǎng)老金，調(diào)整幅度應(yīng)為13至16%，若按上年社會(huì)平均工資增長(zhǎng)率調(diào)整養(yǎng)老金，調(diào)整幅度應(yīng)為90至100%。 研究的創(chuàng)新內(nèi)容主要有二個(gè)，一是通過(guò)梳理關(guān)鍵因素之間的因果關(guān)系，構(gòu)建概念模型，運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型方法，驗(yàn)證理論假設(shè)模型與實(shí)際觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的適配度，建立養(yǎng)老金替代率理論模型；二是以多因素決定的養(yǎng)老金替代率呈穩(wěn)定性的動(dòng)態(tài)變化為前提，根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中彈性的微分含義，通過(guò)測(cè)度養(yǎng)老金替代率對(duì)其決定因素的敏感程度，確定養(yǎng)老金替代率的適度水平。
[Abstract]:In the pension insurance categories, pension replacement rate is a concept to measure the old-age security level, is the ratio of retirement pensions and wages, not only related to the social income level also affects the level of pension payments. It is related to the affordability of the elderly every quality of life and the state and society, even to the the stable equilibrium of the economic system, some aspects such as a stable and harmonious society. Therefore, the pension replacement rate is a key factor in the government pension system must be considered when designing.
Because each country's productivity level is different, choose different endowment insurance system and its reform direction, determine the standard pension replacement rate level and determination method is different. China's current pension replacement rate level is reasonable, and the reasonable level of pension replacement rate is how to determine the need to delve into the problem.
From the research perspective, in the process of the design of old-age insurance system or system reform, we should protect the lives of the elderly consumer point of view, to determine the relative pension income of the elderly, to determine the relative stability of the pension replacement rate; then retirees pension payment level is determined according to the pension rate of substitution; then according to the pension fund balance the principle of payment of pension level determined by the payment level.
From the research process and methods, first, based on the review of the related research results, using mathematical analysis method, factors affecting the initial selection of pension replacement rate, induction system module on the pension replacement rate; second, theoretical analysis of the mechanism between the 22 modules of the system, build on the coexistence of multiple factors of the pension replacement rate of the system the structure of balanced and stable; third, using the method of structural equation model, construct the theoretical model of pension replacement rate, determine the variable factors of the system and its relations; fourth, based on the theoretical model, combined with the economics principle of elasticity, the pension replacement rate calculation and determination of the appropriate level; fifth, moderate substitution rate based on estimates of endowment insurance other key parameters of the system.
The theoretical model construction of pension replacement rate, seven modules with eleven variables to reflect, as well as six direct effects, indirect effects of seven and three overall effect, which is formed by the optimal structural equation model of variable abstraction and conceptualization. Among them, for the hypothesis model and the actual observation data adaptation research, using macro panel data, parameter estimation using generalized least square method, the equation of the hybrid structure model has better effect.
To determine the pension replacement rate is a relatively stable value, when the payment period ranged from 35 to 40 years, the wage growth rate ranged from 5% to 11%, accounting rate ranged from 3% to 6%, a moderate level of pension replacement rate level in 39% to 56%. in the pension replacement rate as the goal, the government share the basic old-age insurance responsibility the units and individuals shall be 1:3.3:2.2, three were 4.55%, 15%, 10% of the contribution rate of the optimal combination is feasible; if the level of pension pension adjustment according to the previous year, the adjustment should be 13 to 16%, according to the average wage last year growth rate of social pension adjustment, the adjustment should be 90 to 100%.
There are two main contents of innovation research, a causal relationship between the key factors by combing, constructs a conceptual model, using the method of structural equation model, fit verify the hypothesis model and the actual observation data, the establishment of the pension replacement rate model; two is decided by many factors of the pension replacement rate is dynamic stability as the premise, according to the differential meaning of elasticity in the economics, through the measure of pension replacement rate is more sensitive to the decision factors, to determine the appropriate level of pension replacement rate.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C913.6

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