本文選題：離婚　切入點：喪偶　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：離婚和喪偶問題是婚姻問題的重要方面。改革開放以來特別是90年代以來,中國發(fā)生了深刻的變革,由于受到社會、經(jīng)濟、文化背景、法律等因素的影響,人們的婚姻方式發(fā)生了很大的改變,其特點之一就是大部分人對離婚和喪偶后再婚持寬容態(tài)度。離婚意味著家庭的破裂,我國的離婚率正呈現(xiàn)出上升的趨勢,伴隨離婚產(chǎn)生的財產(chǎn)分配、孩子教育撫養(yǎng)以及老人贍養(yǎng)等問題,極易造成雙方的沖突。喪偶問題特別是老年人的喪偶問題同樣值得人們關(guān)注,隨著人均壽命的延長喪偶老人的數(shù)量不斷增多,他們作為弱勢群體需要更多的幫助。因此研究離婚和喪偶狀況對了解我國婚姻狀況的趨勢,制定相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟、法律政策具有重要的借鑒意義。 本文收集整理了《中國人口統(tǒng)計年鑒1996-2010》中離婚和喪偶的數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用改進的Lee-cater模型,并對離婚和喪偶兩種婚姻狀態(tài)分男女建模,估計了近年來全國、市、鎮(zhèn)、鄉(xiāng)分性別分年齡離婚和喪偶的比例變化趨勢,,并基于最優(yōu)模型對兩種婚姻狀態(tài)進行了進一步討論。具體地,第一,對1995年、2000年、2008年全國以及1995年、2005年、2008年市、鎮(zhèn)、鄉(xiāng)的觀測值和擬合值進行了比較,并討論了變化趨勢。第二,對市、鎮(zhèn)、鄉(xiāng)的擬合曲線進行了比較,討論了從1995年到2008年的變化,并分析了趨勢變化的原因。第三,基于1995-2008年的數(shù)據(jù)對2009年婚姻狀況的比例進行了預(yù)測,并將得到的預(yù)測值與2009年的觀測值進行了比較。經(jīng)過兩種婚姻狀態(tài)的趨勢變化和預(yù)預(yù)顯示了改進的lee-carter模型對分析10年到20年短期數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性和預(yù)測能力強。 在最后,本文在模型分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了離婚和喪偶一些顯著性的變化趨勢,提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Divorce and widowhood are important aspects of marriage. Since the reform and opening up, especially since 90s, profound changes have taken place in China, which have been influenced by social, economic, cultural, legal and other factors. Great changes have taken place in people's way of marriage, one of the characteristics of which is that most people are tolerant of divorce and remarriage after widowhood. Divorce means the breakdown of the family, and the divorce rate in our country is on the rise. Along with the problems of property distribution, education and maintenance of children and the maintenance of the elderly, it is easy to cause conflicts between the two sides. The problem of widowhood, especially the problem of widowhood of the elderly, is also worth people's attention. As the number of widowed elderly people increases with the increase of life expectancy, they need more help as a vulnerable group. Therefore, to study divorce and widowhood status in order to understand the trend of marital status in our country and to formulate the relevant economy, The law policy has the important reference significance. This paper collects and collates the data of divorce and widowhood in Chinese demographic Yearbook 1996-2010, applies the improved Lee-cater model, and models the marriage status of divorce and widowhood, and estimates the status of divorce and widowhood in recent years in the whole country, city and town. The change trend of the ratio of divorce and widowhood by sex, age, and widowhood in rural areas is discussed further based on the optimal model. Specifically, first, on 1995, 2000, 2008, all over the country, and 2008, 2008, city, town, city, town, etc. The observed values and fitting values are compared and the trend of change is discussed. Secondly, the fitting curves of cities, towns and townships are compared, the changes from 1995 to 2008 are discussed, and the reasons for the trend changes are analyzed. Based on data from 1995-2008, the proportion of marital status in 2009 was predicted, The predicted values are compared with the observed values in 2009. Through the trend changes of two marriage states and pre-display, the improved lee-carter model has strong accuracy and predictive ability to analyze short-term data from 10 to 20 years. Finally, based on the results of the model analysis, this paper summarizes some significant trends of divorce and widowhood, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C913.1

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 田嵐;中國改革開放后的離婚率與離婚方式探析[J];比較法研究;2004年06期

2 劉嘉殷;中國離婚問題的回歸分析[J];北京機械工業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)報;2000年04期

3 劉蕾;從女性的角度分析離婚率升高的原因和對策[J];北京社會科學(xué);2001年04期

4 韓猛;王曉軍;;Lee-Carter模型在中國城市人口死亡率預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用與改進[J];保險研究;2010年10期

5 孔燕;;“80后”高離婚率原因及對策探討[J];產(chǎn)業(yè)與科技論壇;2011年17期

6 魏曉;;農(nóng)村喪偶老人生活困境的原因和對策分析[J];湖北經(jīng)濟學(xué)院學(xué)報(人文社會科學(xué)版);2011年04期

7 張翼;;中國當(dāng)前的婚姻態(tài)勢及變化趨勢[J];河北學(xué)刊;2008年03期

8 馬金;淺析我國喪偶老人再婚問題[J];南方人口;1998年01期

9 石人炳;中國離婚喪偶人口再婚差異性分析[J];南方人口;2005年03期

10 丁志宏;胡強強;;20世紀(jì)90年代我國喪偶人口狀況分析[J];南方人口;2006年01期

，

本文編號：1609241