本文選題：微博輿情　切入點(diǎn)：微博輿情演化　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)社會(huì)的崛起以及微博用戶量的急速增加,微博輿情逐漸成為一種不可忽視的頻發(fā)性社會(huì)現(xiàn)象。通過聚合民意,微博輿情能夠形成強(qiáng)大的社會(huì)合力,并產(chǎn)生深刻的社會(huì)影響。在此背景下,了解微博輿情的生成條件與環(huán)境,研究微博輿情的發(fā)展規(guī)律及影響因素,具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在梳理國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)綜述法、跨學(xué)科研究與計(jì)算機(jī)仿真等研究方法,分析一般微博輿情的演化過程。微博輿情演化是一個(gè)多主體協(xié)同的過程,具有小世界性屬性,微博社區(qū)中相互關(guān)聯(lián)的多樣化行為主體通過關(guān)注、轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)推送消息以自組織協(xié)同的方式推動(dòng)著微博輿情的發(fā)展演化。本文通過梳理微博輿情、傳染病動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)模型、多主體仿真等方法理論,利用多主體建模對微博輿情的演化過程進(jìn)行量化分析以及多主體仿真來對其演化過程進(jìn)行一定程度上的模擬。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容是:(1)闡述了微博輿情的內(nèi)涵及其構(gòu)成要素,并對其傳播路徑進(jìn)行了說明,為接下來的微博輿情行為主體特性分析打下基礎(chǔ)。(2)通過對微博輿情演化內(nèi)涵的理解,引入自組織理論對微博輿情的演化動(dòng)態(tài)過程進(jìn)行刻畫。(3)考慮微博輿情中行為主體的異質(zhì)性,分析各主體之間的觀點(diǎn)交互以及其相互影響因素和權(quán)重,利用多主體方法設(shè)定主體之間的交互規(guī)則,對傳染病SIR模型中的概率進(jìn)行更適用于微博輿情演化的改進(jìn)。(4)利用多主體仿真軟件Netlogo對微博輿情演化過程中的主體交互進(jìn)行仿真,從主體交互及其相互影響的結(jié)果反映微博輿情演化的動(dòng)態(tài)過程。(5)選取2015年“8·12天津港特大火災(zāi)爆炸事故”作為樣本案例,通過數(shù)據(jù)的搜集整理,驗(yàn)證多主體仿真結(jié)果的正確性與客觀性。通過本文對微博輿情演化動(dòng)態(tài)過程的分析以及利用多主體仿真軟件對其模擬刻畫,找出微博輿情在其演化過程中各行為主體應(yīng)注意的問題以及對政府相關(guān)部門更好地監(jiān)測引導(dǎo)微博輿情提供一定的建議。
[Abstract]:With the rise of the network society and the rapid increase of Weibo's number of users, Weibo's public opinion has gradually become a frequent social phenomenon that can not be ignored. By aggregating public opinion, the public opinion of Weibo can form a strong social resultant force. And have a profound social impact. In this context, understand the conditions and environment of Weibo's public opinion, study the law of the development of public opinion and its influencing factors, It is of great practical significance. On the basis of combing the related research results at home and abroad, this paper synthetically applies the literature review method, interdisciplinary research and computer simulation research methods. Analysis of the evolution process of general Weibo public opinion. The evolution of public opinion is a multi-agent collaborative process, with a small global attribute. The diverse and interrelated actors in the Weibo community pay close attention to it. Forwarding and pushing messages promote the development and evolution of Weibo's public opinion in a self-organizing and cooperative way. This paper combs the theory of Weibo's public opinion, the model of infectious disease power system, the multi-agent simulation, etc. The evolution process of Weibo's public opinion is analyzed quantitatively by multi-agent modeling and the multi-agent simulation is used to simulate the evolution process to a certain extent. The main research content of this paper is: (1) expatiate the connotation and the constituent elements of Weibo's public opinion. And the transmission path is explained, which lays a foundation for the analysis of the main characteristics of Weibo's behavior of public opinion.) through the understanding of the connotation of the evolvement of public opinion of Weibo, The self-organization theory is introduced to depict the dynamic process of Weibo's public opinion evolution. (3) considering the heterogeneity of the behavior as the main body in Weibo's public opinion, this paper analyzes the interaction of viewpoints among the different subjects and their mutual influence factors and weights. The interaction rules between agents are set by multi-agent method, and the probability in SIR model of infectious diseases is more suitable for the improvement of Weibo's public opinion evolution. The simulation software Netlogo is used to simulate the agent interaction in the process of public opinion evolution. According to the dynamic process of Weibo's public opinion evolution reflected by the result of subject interaction and its interaction, this paper selects "August 12 Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident" on 2015 as a sample case, and collects and collates the data. Verify the correctness and objectivity of multi-agent simulation results. Through the analysis of Weibo public opinion evolution dynamic process and the use of multi-agent simulation software to describe its simulation, This paper finds out the problems that should be paid attention to by various actors in the evolution of Weibo's public opinion and provides some suggestions for government departments to better monitor and guide Weibo's public opinion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G206;C912.63

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