本文關(guān)鍵詞：牧民應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的社會(huì)脆弱性——以內(nèi)蒙古荒漠草原的一個(gè)嘎查為例，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

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Herdsmen’sPerceptionsandAdaptiontoClimateChange:ACaseStudyinChaganbulige,SiziwangBanner,InnerMongolia

JINLe-shan,WEITong-yang,HUZhen-tong

(CollegeofHumanitiesandDevelopmentStudies,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Beijing100193,China)

Abstract:Afieldsurveywithasampleof98householdswascarriedoutinChaganbulige,SiziwangBanner,InnerMongoliainordertounderstandherdsmen’sperceptionofclimatechangeandcompareitwithmeteorologicaldataandtheofficialrecordofextremeclimateevents.Theresultsshowedthatmostherdsmencorrectlyperceivedthechangeintemperature,buttheyhadinexactjudgementonprecipitation,windandsandstorm.Inthepast40years,temperatureinSiziwangBannerwasslowlyincreasing.Theprecipitationandstormswerefluctuatinggreatly,butthelong-termtrenddidnotchangemuchthoughmostherdsmenreportedthattherainfallwassignificantlydecreasing.Recentyearsofextremeclimateeventsimpressedherdsmenmost.

Astotheimpactsofextremeclimateevents,droughtwasmostimpressivetoherdersfollowedbysnowstormsandsandstorms.Foradaptingtoclimatechangeherdsmenhad

222自然資源學(xué)報(bào)29卷spontaneouslytakenvariousadaptivemeasures,ofwhich22adaptationmeasureswerereportedinthesurvey.Thetopfivemeasuresthatwereusedbymostherdsmenarestoringmorehayandforage,reducingtheherdsize,buildingwarmshed,borrowingmoney(loan),and“notletnextgenerationsbeherders”.Othersincludebuildingcorral,diggingwell,plantingfodder,cooperationinvaccinationsofcattle,reducinghouseholdexpenditures,changinggrazinglocation,rentinggrassland,introducingnewbreeds,savings,wagelabor,givingupherding,alternativelivelihoods(e.g.tourism),sharingherdingarrangement,etc.

The22spontaneousadaptationmeasureswereassessedbyexpertswiththemethodofmultiplecriteriaanalysis(MCA).Thecriteriaincludeeffectiveness,economicbenefits,flexibility,no-regret,side-effect,compliancewithgovernmentpoliciesandplans,compatibilitywithdevelopmentgoals,andreplicability.Theresultsshowedthatbuildingwarmshed,theintroductionofnewbreeds,hayandforagestorage,reducingtheherdsizeandwagelabormetthemostcriteria.

Thespontaneousadaptationmeasureswerefurtherscreenedbyherdsmen,researchers,andlocalgovernmentofficialswiththeparticipatorymethod.Theresultsshowedthatmeasuressuchasbuildingwarmshed,introductionofnewbreeds,hayandforagestorage,reducingtheherdsizeandloanweremoreeffectivethanothers,whichdidnottotallycoincidewiththeresultsofexpertassessment.

Tosupportthespontaneousadaptationmeasureswhichwereselectedtobemostpracticalandeffective,theherdersidentifiedthefollowingpoliciesthatweremostlyneeded,i.e.loansupport,theimprovementofsocialsecurity,accurateweatherforecastsandpestforecasts,animalinsurance,training,marketaccessenhancement,enhancementofinfrastructure,warmshedsubsidiesanddrinkingwaterproject.Thosepolicieswouldimproveherdsmen’sabilityofadaptingtoclimatechange,helpherdsmentocopewithextremeclimateevents,andreducetheirvulnerabilityoflivelihoods.

Keywords:climatechange;perceptionofclimatechange;spontaneousadaptation;SiziwangBanner

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：牧民應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的社會(huì)脆弱性——以內(nèi)蒙古荒漠草原的一個(gè)嘎查為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。