【摘要】：內(nèi)需不足一直是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革和實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的嚴(yán)重阻礙,而我國(guó)擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的巨大潛力在廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)。信貸是農(nóng)村居民擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)的有效途徑,然而由于逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在,信貸投入的提高是否真正發(fā)揮了作用還有待探討,從理論和實(shí)證的角度檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的影響效應(yīng)和影響路徑是非常有必要的。本文以消費(fèi)函數(shù)理論為基礎(chǔ),從全國(guó)和區(qū)域兩個(gè)視角分析農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平的影響。從全國(guó)視角,選用1979-2013年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),基于三個(gè)狀態(tài)空間模型,研究農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平的影響效應(yīng)、主要傳導(dǎo)路徑以及影響系數(shù)的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。從區(qū)域視角,選用1999-2013年省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù),基于三個(gè)面板方程,根據(jù)固定效應(yīng)模型和隨機(jī)消費(fèi)模型估計(jì)方法,估計(jì)東、中、西部不同地區(qū)農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)居民消費(fèi)水平的影響作用和作用路徑,并比較區(qū)域間的差異。最后,根據(jù)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析理論,計(jì)算了信貸與農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)與灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度,分析信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的作用。根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果,本文得到以下結(jié)論：(1)從全國(guó)視角看,農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)支出具有顯著的正向影響,影響路徑主要是通過(guò)收入這一中間變量進(jìn)而間接影響消費(fèi)支出。(2)從區(qū)域視角看,各區(qū)域農(nóng)村信貸都對(duì)居民消費(fèi)具有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,但區(qū)域間差異性顯著,東部地區(qū)消費(fèi)的信貸彈性最小,西部地區(qū)次之,中部地區(qū)最高。(3)農(nóng)村居民信貸水平與居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)之間具有緊密聯(lián)系,信貸水平的提高能夠推動(dòng)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)。(4)收入是影響農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的重要因素。對(duì)于以上結(jié)果出現(xiàn)的原因,本文從農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)理念,金融知識(shí)水平,低收入群體的信貸約束以及收入構(gòu)成等方面進(jìn)行了分析�；诒疚牡膶�(shí)證結(jié)論,本文提出以下政策建議：(1)加快農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)建設(shè),增加農(nóng)村地區(qū)的信貸供給。(2)大力發(fā)展農(nóng)村金融教育,提高農(nóng)村居民金融知識(shí)水平。(3)提升農(nóng)村居民人均純收入,刺激居民消費(fèi)支出。(4)完善農(nóng)村地區(qū)社會(huì)保障制度,加強(qiáng)政府教育支出支持。
[Abstract]:Insufficient domestic demand has been a serious obstacle to the reform of economic system and the realization of sustainable development in China, and the great potential of expanding domestic demand in China lies in the vast rural areas. Credit is an effective way for rural residents to expand their consumption. However, due to the existence of adverse selection and moral hazard, whether the increase of credit investment has really played a role remains to be explored. It is necessary to test the influence of rural credit on rural residents' consumption from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Based on the theory of consumption function, this paper analyzes the influence of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents from the perspectives of the whole country and the region. Based on three state space models, this paper studies the effect of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents, the main conduction path and the change trend of influence coefficient based on the time series data from 1979 to 2013. From a regional perspective, provincial panel data from 1999 to 2013 are selected to estimate East and Middle, based on three panel equations, fixed effect model and stochastic consumption model. The influence and path of rural credit on the consumption level of residents in different regions of western China, and the differences between regions. Finally, according to the theory of grey correlation analysis, the grey correlation coefficient and grey correlation degree between credit and consumption structure of rural residents are calculated, and the effect of credit on the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents is analyzed. According to the empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) from the national perspective, rural credit has a significant positive impact on rural consumer spending. The influence path is mainly through the intermediate variable of income and then indirectly affects the consumption expenditure. (2) from the regional perspective, rural credit has a significant role in promoting the consumption of residents, but there are significant differences between regions. The credit elasticity of consumption is the smallest in the eastern region, followed by the western region, and the highest in the central region. (3) there is a close relationship between the credit level of rural residents and the consumption structure of the residents. The improvement of credit level can promote the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents. (4) income is an important factor affecting the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents. For the reasons above, this paper analyzes the consumption concept of rural residents, the level of financial knowledge, the credit constraints of low-income groups and income composition. Based on the empirical conclusions of this paper, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: (1) speeding up the construction of rural financial markets, increasing the credit supply in rural areas, (2) vigorously developing rural financial education, Improve the level of financial knowledge of rural residents. (3) improve the per capita net income of rural residents, stimulate consumer expenditure. (4) improve the social security system in rural areas, strengthen the support of government expenditure on education.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.8

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