【摘要】：人口流動(dòng)是社會(huì)進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要推動(dòng)力,人口跨地區(qū)流動(dòng),既有利于整個(gè)社會(huì)資源的合理配置,也有利于促進(jìn)流入地的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。人口流動(dòng)也是推動(dòng)社會(huì)制度不斷改革的重要推動(dòng)力。隨著人口流動(dòng)的常態(tài)化,與之相關(guān)的管理制度也不斷適應(yīng)和調(diào)整,人口流動(dòng)的累計(jì)效應(yīng)推動(dòng)相關(guān)制度改革的深入。社會(huì)福利制度作為與每個(gè)人息息相關(guān)的制度,在人口流動(dòng)的過程中,不斷改革和完善,考察人口流動(dòng)對(duì)我國福利制度的影響,進(jìn)而對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的推動(dòng),對(duì)于我國邁向全面小康社會(huì)具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利之間關(guān)系的研究涉及人口學(xué)、福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和新制度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等相關(guān)學(xué)科。目前已有的研究,大多以人口流動(dòng)為出發(fā)點(diǎn),主要內(nèi)容涉及人口流動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)保障制度,人口流動(dòng)與公共服務(wù)提供機(jī)制,研究的重點(diǎn)在探討流動(dòng)人口的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng),如何保障流動(dòng)人口的教育、醫(yī)療、養(yǎng)老等問題,以及如何優(yōu)化財(cái)政支出來解決因人口流動(dòng)帶來的地區(qū)和城鄉(xiāng)差距擴(kuò)大。對(duì)人口流動(dòng)對(duì)社會(huì)福利制度的影響研究較少,對(duì)由此帶來的社會(huì)福利水平的變動(dòng)更是鮮有涉及。人口流動(dòng)和制度變革之間存在著互動(dòng)關(guān)系,階段性的制度變化短期內(nèi)能夠引發(fā)人口的集中性流動(dòng),人口的長期流動(dòng)也會(huì)推動(dòng)社會(huì)制度的適應(yīng)性改革。同時(shí),人口流動(dòng)和社會(huì)福利制度之間存在雙向互動(dòng)關(guān)系,但本文在邏輯上選取其中的一個(gè)單向驅(qū)動(dòng):人口流動(dòng)社會(huì)福利制度變動(dòng)社會(huì)總體福利水平變化,作為研究方向,重點(diǎn)分析由人口流動(dòng)驅(qū)動(dòng)的社會(huì)福利制度演變,進(jìn)而評(píng)估人口流動(dòng)對(duì)于整體社會(huì)福利水平的影響。具體實(shí)施上,本文在梳理國內(nèi)外對(duì)于人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利效應(yīng)相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,引出本文選題。之后選取人口學(xué)、福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和新制度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中可作為研究支撐的相關(guān)理論,進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié)和評(píng)述,在此基礎(chǔ)上展開本文的后續(xù)研究,具體研究路徑和重點(diǎn)內(nèi)容如下:首先,對(duì)人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利變化之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析。建國以來,我國人口流動(dòng)經(jīng)歷了由經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)到政治驅(qū)動(dòng)最終由市場驅(qū)動(dòng)的過程。從國家層面來看,國家利益是人口流動(dòng)的原始驅(qū)動(dòng)力,從流動(dòng)人口自身來看,除國家強(qiáng)制性的遷移外,自由流動(dòng)狀態(tài)下,人們對(duì)更高社會(huì)福利的追求是人口流動(dòng)的主因。人口流動(dòng)的過程也推動(dòng)了社會(huì)福利制度的改革與完善,與四次人口流動(dòng)大潮相交織,我國的社會(huì)福利制度也經(jīng)歷了初創(chuàng)時(shí)期、發(fā)展時(shí)期、挫折與恢復(fù)時(shí)期、轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期。尤其是1984年以來的轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期,我國對(duì)傳統(tǒng)社會(huì)福利制度進(jìn)行改革,改變了過去由國家負(fù)擔(dān)全部社會(huì)福利的做法,形成了由國家、集體、個(gè)人共擔(dān)社會(huì)福利的局面。這一時(shí)期,流動(dòng)人口的社會(huì)福利制度建設(shè)也從無到有,經(jīng)歷了從制度缺位到制度建構(gòu)并全面實(shí)施的歷程。排除人為的強(qiáng)制性的人口遷移,觀察1978年改革開放以來,在市場經(jīng)濟(jì)下自由的人口流動(dòng)過程,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)我國人口從農(nóng)村流向城市,從中西部欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)流向東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的過程中,不僅自身的收入水平和福利狀況有所改善,對(duì)流入地整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也有帶動(dòng)作用。但同時(shí),人口流動(dòng)也造成了流出地人口流失,勞動(dòng)力不足,流入地資源承載壓力上升,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)滯后等問題,對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平而言,人口流動(dòng)既有正效應(yīng),也有負(fù)效應(yīng)。其次,深入分析阿馬蒂亞·森“可行能力方法”框架下的“功能”和“能力”空間的社會(huì)福利函數(shù),并在比較分析人類社會(huì)發(fā)展指數(shù)(hdi)、hdi擴(kuò)充指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,本著科學(xué)性、可操作性、可靠性、動(dòng)態(tài)性和相對(duì)獨(dú)立性的原則,首先采用系統(tǒng)分析法,根據(jù)社會(huì)福利所涉及的相關(guān)指標(biāo),不受任何條件的限制,盡可能全面地一一列出,然后運(yùn)用理論分析法,從“功能”和“能力”的視角,對(duì)社會(huì)福利的內(nèi)涵、特征和發(fā)展?jié)摿M(jìn)行分析綜合,并參考國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究中各指標(biāo)的采用頻度,選出其中具有穩(wěn)定性和數(shù)據(jù)連續(xù)性的指標(biāo)。由此構(gòu)建了本文的社會(huì)福利水平評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。該指標(biāo)體系包含“功能”和“能力”兩個(gè)維度,涵蓋收入水平、消費(fèi)水平、住房狀況、健康狀況、教育程度、社會(huì)保障、旅游休閑和自然環(huán)境8大類別34個(gè)指標(biāo),是對(duì)我國目前的社會(huì)福利水平進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)、科學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)的有益探索。第三,對(duì)我國1978年以來的社會(huì)福利水平進(jìn)行模糊邏輯測算。在測算方法上,引入了模糊數(shù)學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)方法,主要過程包括:模式識(shí)別與模糊化、模糊推理系統(tǒng)的建立、模糊規(guī)則與模糊推理、模糊暗示與解模糊化。實(shí)證分析中,采用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)測算我國1978年以來的社會(huì)福利水平,結(jié)果顯示:1978年以來,我國社會(huì)福利水平在不同階段的提升速度不盡相同,并且過程中多有反復(fù)。80年代初期,受改革開放的推動(dòng),我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展中很多原有體制的束縛被解除,社會(huì)福利水平出現(xiàn)了一次較快增長,但80年代中后期,整體社會(huì)福利水平并沒有延續(xù)之前高增長的態(tài)勢,80年代末期甚至出現(xiàn)了社會(huì)福利水平下降,并且一直持續(xù)到20世紀(jì)90年代。之后,受我國社會(huì)主義市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體制確立的推動(dòng),1996年開始我國社會(huì)福利水平逐年攀升,1996-2003年我國社會(huì)福利水平從0.4402提升到0.6122,增幅高達(dá)39.07%。2003年之后,受到國內(nèi)投資加快、居民家庭消費(fèi)不振以及自然生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞的影響,我國整體社會(huì)福利水平增速有所放緩。但2008年金融危機(jī)之后,隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的恢復(fù)、國家擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需政策的實(shí)施,以及對(duì)社會(huì)保障、民生工程和生態(tài)環(huán)保的重視,我國的社會(huì)福利水平增長速度有所提高,2014年達(dá)到改革開放以來的最高水平,并顯示出較強(qiáng)的后續(xù)增長潛力。第四,對(duì)我國改革開放以來人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利水平的關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。將“人口流動(dòng)率”、“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)率”變量引入社會(huì)福利效應(yīng)分析,采用時(shí)變參數(shù)的狀態(tài)空間模型分析人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利水平變動(dòng)的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,評(píng)估我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的不同階段人口流動(dòng)對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的影響,并重點(diǎn)分析了“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)”對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的影響。相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)表明:全國人口流動(dòng)率、控制變量與社會(huì)福利水平之間存在兩個(gè)“協(xié)整關(guān)系”,即全國人口流動(dòng)率、控制變量與社會(huì)福利水平之間存在長期關(guān)系;“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)率”、控制變量與社會(huì)福利水平之間存在一個(gè)“協(xié)整關(guān)系”,即“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)率”、控制變量與社會(huì)福利水平之間也存在長期關(guān)系。從趨勢上看:1978年以來,我國整體人口流動(dòng)對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的作用呈現(xiàn)出階段性特征,經(jīng)歷了短期內(nèi)迅速上升之后明顯下滑,在小幅反彈及平穩(wěn)調(diào)整后又迅速上升,最后在一個(gè)較高水平上趨于穩(wěn)定的過程。同期,“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)”對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的作用趨勢與此基本類似,但“鄉(xiāng)-城人口流動(dòng)”對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的影響比全國人口流動(dòng)對(duì)社會(huì)福利水平的影響更為顯著。因此,提高由農(nóng)村到城市的流動(dòng)人口社會(huì)福利水平對(duì)提升我國社會(huì)整體福利水平有更加明顯的效果。最后本文結(jié)合經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)論,以本輪人口流動(dòng)大潮的特點(diǎn)為考量,在現(xiàn)有社會(huì)福利制度變遷路徑的基礎(chǔ)上,明確未來改革方向,提出相應(yīng)的社會(huì)福利制度建設(shè)的政策建議:通過建立適合人口流動(dòng)的戶籍管理制度、社會(huì)保障機(jī)制、隨遷子女教育制度,創(chuàng)新社區(qū)管理模式,讓流動(dòng)人口安居樂業(yè),促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,提高整體的社會(huì)福利水平。本研究中可能實(shí)現(xiàn)以下三方面的創(chuàng)新:第一,選題創(chuàng)新。從目前的文獻(xiàn)看,對(duì)于人口流動(dòng)與社會(huì)福利的研究,范圍基本局限在人口流動(dòng)與狹義的社會(huì)保障制度之間關(guān)系的研究或者人口流動(dòng)與收入水平或經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的研究,本文在選題上根據(jù)十八大全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的指導(dǎo)思想,適應(yīng)新形勢下的要求,將選題定位在更高層面的社會(huì)福利范疇,是對(duì)現(xiàn)有研究的擴(kuò)充和提高。第二,指標(biāo)體系與測算方法的創(chuàng)新。目前對(duì)我國社會(huì)福利水平衡量的指標(biāo)體系大多采用阿瑪?shù)賮啞ど诤侠砑僭O(shè)條件下提出的指標(biāo)計(jì)算公式:wt=yt(1-gt),其中,yt是人均收入,gt是基尼系數(shù)。本研究在借鑒國外衡量社會(huì)福利指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了一個(gè)涵蓋“功能”與“能力”兩個(gè)維度的三級(jí)指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)我國的社會(huì)福利水平進(jìn)行了全面的考察,在具體的計(jì)算中運(yùn)用了模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,提升了測算結(jié)果的客觀性。第三,模型構(gòu)建創(chuàng)新。在探求我國人口流動(dòng)和社會(huì)福利水平之間的關(guān)系時(shí),從動(dòng)態(tài)化的分析著手,采用狀態(tài)空間模型搭建“人口流動(dòng)——社會(huì)福利水平”函數(shù),在模型具體的實(shí)現(xiàn)中,針對(duì)我國人口流動(dòng)的階段性特征,運(yùn)用時(shí)變參數(shù)法進(jìn)行估計(jì)和假設(shè)檢驗(yàn),得出了非常具有實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)意義的研究結(jié)論。綜上來看,本文從一個(gè)全新的視角出發(fā),在傳統(tǒng)的福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究框架下引入人口流動(dòng)相關(guān)變量,通過縱向總結(jié)建國以來人口流動(dòng)與福利制度變遷,評(píng)估社會(huì)福利水平變化,橫向借鑒國內(nèi)外社會(huì)福利水平的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,構(gòu)建本研究的社會(huì)福利水平評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法進(jìn)行量化研究,并使用狀態(tài)空間模型和時(shí)變參數(shù)方法深入探討人口流動(dòng)的社會(huì)福利效應(yīng),在研究過程中對(duì)人口學(xué)、新制度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)理論的交叉運(yùn)用,是在跨學(xué)科領(lǐng)域的一次有益嘗試,具有一定的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:Population flow is an important driving force for social progress and economic development. Population flow across regions is not only conducive to the rational allocation of social resources, but also conducive to the economic development of the inflow areas. Social welfare system, as a system closely related to each person, is constantly reformed and perfected in the process of population flow, examining the impact of population flow on China's welfare system, and then promoting the level of social welfare. The study of the relationship between population mobility and social welfare involves demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics. The research focuses on the economic growth effect of the floating population, how to guarantee the education, medical care and old-age care of the floating population, and how to optimize the financial expenditure to solve the regional and urban-rural disparity caused by the floating population. There is an interactive relationship between population mobility and institutional change. Phased institutional changes can lead to population concentration in the short term, and long-term population mobility can also promote the adaptive reform of the social system. At the same time, population mobility and social welfare system. There is a two-way interactive relationship between the degree of social welfare, but this paper logically selects one of the one-way driving force: the social welfare system of population mobility changes the level of social welfare as the research direction, focusing on the analysis of the evolution of social welfare system driven by population mobility, and then assessing the impact of population mobility on the overall level of social welfare. On the specific implementation, this paper combs the domestic and foreign research results on population mobility and social welfare effects, leads to the topic of this paper. Then it selects demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics can be used as research support of the relevant theories, summarizes and comments, on the basis of which the follow-up study of this paper is carried out. The concrete research path and the key content are as follows: First of all, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between population flow and social welfare changes. From the point of view of population itself, in addition to the compulsory migration of the state, people's pursuit of higher social welfare is the main cause of population mobility under the state of free movement. During the period of setbacks and recovery, the period of transition, especially since 1984, China has reformed the traditional social welfare system, changed the way in which the state was responsible for all social welfare, and formed a situation in which the state, the collective and the individual shared the social welfare. From scratch, we have gone through the process from the absence of the system to the construction and implementation of the system in an all-round way. By excluding the mandatory human migration and observing the free flow of the population in the market economy since the reform and opening up in 1978, we can find that China's population has flowed from the countryside to the cities, from the underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions to the developed areas in the east. In the process, not only the income level and welfare status have been improved, but also the overall economic development of the inflow area has been promoted.But at the same time, the population flow has also caused the population loss in the outflow area, the labor force is insufficient, the inflow area resources bearing pressure rises, the infrastructure construction lags behind and other issues. Secondly, the social welfare function of "function" and "capability" space under the framework of Amartya Sen's "feasible capacity method" is analyzed in depth. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the index system of human social development index (hdi) and expansion of hdi, the index system is scientific, operable, reliable, dynamic and relatively independent. The principle of legitimacy, first of all, uses the system analysis method, according to the relevant indicators of social welfare, without any restrictions, as far as possible a comprehensive list, and then uses the theoretical analysis method, from the "function" and "ability" perspective, to analyze and synthesize the connotation, characteristics and development potential of social welfare, and refers to the domestic and foreign. The index system of social welfare level includes two dimensions of "function" and "ability", covering income level, consumption level, housing status, health status, education level and social security. Thirdly, the social welfare level of our country since 1978 is measured by fuzzy logic. In the calculation method, the fuzzy mathematics evaluation method is introduced. The main process includes pattern recognition and model. Passification, the establishment of fuzzy reasoning system, fuzzy rules and fuzzy reasoning, fuzzy suggestion and defuzzification. Empirical analysis, using time series data to measure China's social welfare level since 1978, the results show that since 1978, China's social welfare level in different stages of the promotion rate is not the same, and there are many repetitions in the process. In the early 1980s, driven by the reform and opening up, many of the old systems in China's economic and social development were released and the level of social welfare increased rapidly. But in the middle and late 1980s, the overall level of social welfare did not continue the trend of high growth before, and even declined in the late 1980s. Since then, driven by the establishment of China's socialist market economic system, the level of social welfare has been rising year by year since 1996. From 1996 to 2003, the level of social welfare has increased from 0.4402 to 0.6122, an increase of 39.07%. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, with the recovery of China's economic development, the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand, and the emphasis on social security, people's livelihood projects and ecological protection, the growth rate of social welfare in China has increased, reaching 2014. Fourthly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between population mobility and social welfare level since the reform and opening up in China. The variables of "population mobility rate" and "rural-urban population mobility rate" are introduced into the analysis of social welfare effect, and the time-varying parameters are used to analyze the state space. Inter-modal analysis of the internal relationship between population mobility and changes in social welfare level, assesses the impact of population mobility on social welfare level at different stages of economic and social development in China, and emphatically analyzes the impact of "rural-urban population mobility" on social welfare level. There are two co-integration relations between the welfare level, namely, the national population mobility rate, the long-term relationship between the control variables and the social welfare level; and there is a co-integration relationship between the rural-urban population mobility rate, the control variables and the social welfare level. There is also a long-term relationship between them. From the perspective of trend, since 1978, the role of the overall population flow on social welfare level has shown a phased feature. After a short period of rapid rise, it has declined significantly, and after a small rebound and smooth adjustment, it has risen rapidly, and finally tends to be stable at a higher level. The effect of urban migration on social welfare level is similar to that of rural-urban migration, but the impact of rural-urban migration on social welfare level is more significant than that of national migration. Therefore, the improvement of social welfare level of rural-urban migrants will enhance the overall social welfare level in China. In the end, this paper combines the empirical analysis and empirical analysis of the conclusions, considering the characteristics of the current wave of population migration, on the basis of the existing path of social welfare system changes, clear the direction of future reform, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations for the construction of social welfare system: through the establishment of household registration suitable for population migration Management system, social security mechanism, education system for migrant children, innovative community management model, so that migrants live and work in peace, promote economic development, improve the overall level of social welfare. The scope is basically limited to the study of the relationship between the population flow and the narrow social security system or the study of the relationship between the population flow and the income level or the level of economic development. Secondly, the index system and calculation methods are innovated. At present, the index system of measuring social welfare level in China mostly adopts the index calculation formula proposed by Amartya Sen under reasonable assumptions: wt = YT (1-gt), in which YT is per capita income, GT is Gini coefficient. On the basis of measuring the social welfare index system and combining with the characteristics of China's economic and social development, a three-level index system covering two dimensions of "function" and "ability" is constructed. The level of social welfare in China is investigated comprehensively. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used in the concrete calculation to enhance the objectivity of the measurement results. Thirdly, the model construction innovation. In exploring the relationship between population flow and social welfare level in China, starting from the dynamic analysis, the state space model is used to build the "population flow - social welfare level" function. In the concrete implementation of the model, according to the periodic characteristics of population flow in China, the time-varying parameter method is used. In a word, from a new perspective, this paper introduces the related variables of population mobility into the framework of traditional welfare economics, summarizes the changes of population mobility and welfare system since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and evaluates the changes of social welfare level. In this paper, the evaluation index system of social welfare level at home and abroad is constructed by referring to the evaluation index system of social welfare level horizontally. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the research. The state space model and time-varying parameter method are used to discuss the social welfare effect of population flow in depth. Demography and new system are studied in the process of research. The interdisciplinary application of the theory of degree economics and welfare economics is a beneficial attempt in the interdisciplinary field, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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