本文選題：家庭消費 + 生育選擇��； 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學學報》2016年05期

【摘要】：家庭消費會直接影響生育選擇,從消費角度探索提高生育水平的路徑具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。本文借鑒Cass-Koopmans模型,構建家庭消費與生育選擇的關系模型,利用中國1978—2014年數(shù)據(jù)進行模型估計和驗證,結果發(fā)現(xiàn):在消費和資本差異較大的情況下,消費水平的提高會帶來生育率提高,而人均資本水平的提高則會帶來生育率下降;生育率與人均資本、生育率與消費水平的關系均呈現(xiàn)倒U型曲線,消費水平的拐點數(shù)值比人均資本更大,意味著生育補貼和生育保險等社會保障可以抑制消費水平拐點的發(fā)生,在一定程度上會提高當前生育率。調整生育意愿,提高生育率,可以通過有計劃分步地改革生育保險制度、健全和統(tǒng)一養(yǎng)老社會保險制度和保障婦女勞動參與等措施來實現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Family consumption will directly affect fertility choice. It is of practical significance to explore ways to improve fertility level from the perspective of consumption. Using Cass-Koopmans model for reference, this paper constructs a relationship model between family consumption and reproductive choice, and uses Chinese data from 1978 to 2014 to estimate and verify the model. The results show that: in the case of large differences in consumption and capital, The increase of consumption level will lead to the increase of fertility rate, while the increase of per capita capital level will bring about the decline of fertility rate, and the relationship between fertility and capital per capita, fertility and consumption level will all show an inverted U-shaped curve. The inflection point of consumption level is larger than per capita capital which means that social security such as birth allowance and birth insurance can restrain the inflection point of consumption level and to some extent will increase the current fertility rate. Adjusting the willingness to bear and raising the fertility rate can be realized through the planned reform of the birth insurance system, the improvement and unification of the old-age social insurance system and the protection of women's participation in labor.
【作者單位】： 內蒙古大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金青年基金項目“蒙古族生育轉變及對其生計選擇的作用機理研究”(71303102) 高等學校博士學科點專項科研基金聯(lián)合資助課題“民族地區(qū)加快轉變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式與改善民生關系研究:以內蒙古為例”(20131501120008) 內蒙古自治區(qū)自然科學基金面上項目“‘放開二胎’政策下蒙漢居民生育意愿調整和生育行為比較研究”(2015MS0710)
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.2

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