本文選題：基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金 + 投資組合　； 參考：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：席卷全球的人口老齡化浪潮和我國(guó)未富先老的基本國(guó)情使我國(guó)當(dāng)前的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度和金融結(jié)構(gòu)面臨巨大的沖擊。而投資收益低、投資渠道窄這兩方面的問(wèn)題,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都在我國(guó)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的投資運(yùn)營(yíng)中存在�；攫B(yǎng)老金的收益率長(zhǎng)期處于低收益率的狀態(tài),甚至為負(fù)值,基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的收益無(wú)法趕上通貨膨脹率的增長(zhǎng),最基本的保值目標(biāo)都無(wú)法達(dá)到,更談不上增值目標(biāo)。因此,如何通過(guò)相關(guān)的金融措施,金融政策以及金融制度等方面的金融改革,來(lái)進(jìn)一步提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的支付能力,從根本上促進(jìn)基本養(yǎng)老金的資產(chǎn)的增值,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)養(yǎng)老金不斷增值的目標(biāo),這對(duì)于我國(guó)的金融產(chǎn)業(yè)以及養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)都具有極其重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本論文在養(yǎng)老基金入市的金融政策背景下,以我國(guó)養(yǎng)老體系運(yùn)營(yíng)的客觀條件和現(xiàn)實(shí)環(huán)境為基礎(chǔ),分析了我國(guó)的基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金投資運(yùn)營(yíng)情況。通過(guò)對(duì)現(xiàn)狀的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),一方面,基本養(yǎng)老金的嚴(yán)重貶值、基金收支不平衡和基金缺口等問(wèn)題,嚴(yán)重制約著我國(guó)的基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的增值發(fā)展,另一方面,在基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的統(tǒng)籌上,實(shí)現(xiàn)全國(guó)統(tǒng)籌的進(jìn)程阻礙重重,包括不同地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展差異和城鄉(xiāng)差異等方面。而在監(jiān)管方面,我國(guó)的養(yǎng)老金運(yùn)營(yíng)監(jiān)管現(xiàn)狀也不容樂(lè)觀。以對(duì)社�；鸬某晒�(jīng)驗(yàn)為依據(jù),從多元化投資的可行性和必要性方面分析發(fā)現(xiàn),多元化投資適用于我國(guó)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的運(yùn)營(yíng)策略。并運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代投資組合理論,以SPSS軟件為工具,選取了股票、國(guó)債、和銀行存款三種投資工具,選取2005-2015年的相關(guān)指標(biāo),分別得出以CPI為保值目標(biāo)下的最優(yōu)投資組合比例,和以社�；馂樵鲋的繕�(biāo)下的最優(yōu)投資組合比。通過(guò)實(shí)證得出若以CPI為保值目標(biāo),其最優(yōu)投資比例為其最優(yōu)投資比例為債券投資比90.23%,股票投資比率為3.51%,銀行存款6.26%。以社�；鹉昊找媛蕿樵鲋的繕�(biāo)的投資比例分別為該組解代表在以社�；馂樵鲋的繕�(biāo)下對(duì)應(yīng)的最優(yōu)投資比例。分別為,國(guó)債投資比率32.03%,股票投資比率37.50%,銀行存款投資比率30.47%。針對(duì)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果及現(xiàn)狀分析,對(duì)于我國(guó)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的投資運(yùn)營(yíng),從完善市場(chǎng)、投資運(yùn)營(yíng)策略的創(chuàng)新以及監(jiān)管等方面提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The aging tide of population sweeping the whole world and the basic national conditions of our country being old before becoming rich make the current pension insurance system and financial structure of our country face a huge impact. But the investment income is low, the investment channel is narrow, for a long time in our country basic endowment insurance fund investment operation exists. The rate of return of the basic pension is in the state of low yield for a long time, even negative value, the income of the basic pension insurance fund can not catch up with the growth of inflation rate, the most basic value preservation target can not be achieved, let alone the target of increment. Therefore, how to further improve the ability of the pension insurance fund to pay through the relevant financial measures, financial policies and financial system, and fundamentally promote the appreciation of the assets of the basic pension, Thus realizing the goal of increasing the value of pension is of great practical significance to the financial industry and pension industry of our country. Under the background of the financial policy of the pension fund entering the market, this paper analyzes the investment and operation of the basic pension insurance fund in China on the basis of the objective conditions and realistic environment of the operation of the pension system in China. Through the analysis of the present situation, it is found that, on the one hand, the serious depreciation of the basic pension fund, the imbalance of fund income and expenditure and the fund gap have seriously restricted the value-added development of the basic pension insurance fund in China, on the other hand, As for the basic pension fund, the process of realizing the overall plan of the whole country is hindered, including the difference of economic development in different regions and the difference between urban and rural areas. But in the supervision aspect, our country pension operation supervision present situation also is not optimistic. Based on the successful experience of social security fund, this paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of diversification investment and finds that diversification investment is suitable for the operation strategy of basic pension insurance fund in China. Using the modern portfolio theory and SPSS software as a tool, this paper selects three investment instruments, stock, national debt and bank deposits, and selects the relevant indicators from 2005 to 2015. And social security fund as the value-added target of the optimal portfolio ratio. The results show that the optimal investment ratio is bond investment ratio 90.23, stock investment ratio 3.51, bank deposit 6.26. The proportion of the investment with the annual rate of return of the social security fund as the value added target is represented by the optimal investment proportion corresponding to the social security fund under the target of increasing the value of the social security fund. The investment ratio of national debt is 32.03, the ratio of stock investment is 37.50, the investment ratio of bank deposit is 30.47. According to the results of empirical analysis and current situation analysis, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the investment and operation of basic pension insurance fund in China from the aspects of perfecting the market, innovating the investment operation strategy and supervising and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F842.67

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本文編號(hào)：2019644