本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險 + 城鄉(xiāng)居民��； 參考：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：養(yǎng)老保險是每個國家社會保障體系中最重要的組成部分,中國也不例外。從1997年中國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度改革開始,到2009年新型農(nóng)村社會養(yǎng)老保險制度試點,再到2013年城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險的并軌,中國社會養(yǎng)老保險體系在一系列的改革過程中不斷的完善和發(fā)展。然而,近年來隨著人口老齡化速度的加快,中國社會養(yǎng)老保險體制也面臨這諸多問題和挑戰(zhàn)。本論文將根據(jù)中國國情,建立適應中國國情的城鄉(xiāng)居民養(yǎng)老金精算模型,預測養(yǎng)老金未來發(fā)展,合理調(diào)整養(yǎng)老參數(shù),引導養(yǎng)老保險體系進入良性循環(huán)軌道,對推動中國養(yǎng)老保險體系可持續(xù)發(fā)展和社會和諧發(fā)展,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。由于中國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老體系與農(nóng)村居民社會養(yǎng)老保險體系運行機理并不相同,所面臨的問題以及問題的根源也不一樣,因此必須分別建立模型進行研究。對于城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險體系,第一步在分析其基金收入、支出、余額變化的基礎上,結合Leslie人口結構遞推模型、GDP指數(shù)增長模型和工資Logistic增長模型,建立城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險精算模型。第二步根據(jù)相關數(shù)據(jù)和參數(shù)假定,利用精算模型預測未來55年基金變化趨勢,結果顯示城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金余額到2055年將為負值,后期基金收不抵支狀況十分嚴重,現(xiàn)行城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度不能可持續(xù)運行。第三步對精算模型中的退休年齡、替代率、生育率和投資收益率進行調(diào)整,設計了三種可以使城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險體系度過人口老齡化階段的調(diào)整方案:(1)2021年開始延遲退休五年,總體替代率提高5%;(2)逐步放開二孩政策,2031年的總生育率差不多提高一倍,投資收益率提高到5%;(3)2021年開始延遲退休兩年,總體替代率提高4%,2031年的總和生育率提高差不多0.8倍,投資收益率提高到5%。這三種方案均可以使城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金在2070年時有結余,并且后期隨著人口結構的調(diào)整能夠逐步達到收支平衡。對于新型農(nóng)村社會養(yǎng)老保險體系,在分析其基金收入和支出的基礎上建立個人賬戶精算模型,結合人口壽命分布,分析新農(nóng)保的“�；尽焙汀翱沙掷m(xù)”問題。結果顯示:(1)新農(nóng)保存在非常嚴重的“�；尽憋L險,若不鼓勵參保農(nóng)民提高繳費檔次,農(nóng)村老人的基本生活將難以得到保障。(2)新農(nóng)保的個人賬戶養(yǎng)老金存在21%的缺口,并且這個缺口與人口結構無關,是制度設計上的系統(tǒng)缺口。新農(nóng)保需要政府財政源源不斷的補貼才能持續(xù)運行下去。論文的最后,根據(jù)研究結論,對中國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度提出了適當調(diào)整生育政策、合理延遲退休政策和逐步放寬基金管理政策三個方面的改革建議,同時對新農(nóng)保個人賬戶也提出了差別化調(diào)整繳費補貼政策、逐步放寬基金管理政策和合理延遲退休政策三個方面的改進建議。
[Abstract]:Endowment insurance is the most important part of every country's social security system, and China is no exception. Starting from the reform of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China in 1997, to the pilot project of the new rural social old-age insurance system in 2009 and to the integration of social old-age insurance for urban and rural residents in 2013, China's social endowment insurance system in a series of reforms in the process of continuous improvement and development. However, with the rapid aging of the population in recent years, China's social endowment insurance system is also faced with these problems and challenges. According to the national conditions of China, this paper will establish an actuarial model of pension for urban and rural residents in China, predict the future development of pension, adjust the pension parameters reasonably, and guide the pension insurance system into a virtuous circle. It is of great practical significance to promote the sustainable development of Chinese endowment insurance system and the harmonious development of society. Since the basic pension system of urban workers in China is not the same as the social pension insurance system of rural residents, and the problems and root causes are also different, it is necessary to establish models for research. For the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers, the first step is to analyze the changes of fund income, expenditure and balance, and combine the Leslie population structure recursive model with the Leslie exponential growth model and the wage Logistic growth model. To establish an actuarial model of basic old-age insurance for urban workers. The second step is to forecast the trend of fund changes in the coming 55 years by using actuarial model according to the related data and parameter assumptions. The result shows that the balance of basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will be negative by 2055, and the situation of fund receiving and non-payment in the later period is very serious. Current urban worker basic endowment insurance system cannot run continuously. The third step is to adjust the retirement age, replacement rate, fertility rate and rate of return on investment in the actuarial model. Has designed three adjustment schemes that can enable the basic old-age insurance system of urban workers to pass through the aging stage of the population.) starting from 2021, retirement will be delayed by five years, the overall replacement rate will be increased by 5% and 2%) the two-child policy will be gradually liberalized, and the total fertility rate in 2031 will almost double. In 2021, the total replacement rate increased by 4%, the total fertility rate in 2031 increased by almost 0.8 times, and the return on investment increased to 5%. These three schemes can make the basic old-age insurance fund of urban workers have balance in 2070, and gradually reach the balance of income and expenditure with the adjustment of population structure in the later period. For the new rural social endowment insurance system, based on the analysis of its fund income and expenditure, the actuarial model of individual account is established. Combining with the distribution of population life, the basic and sustainable problems of the new rural social pension insurance are analyzed. The results show that the new farmers are kept in a very serious "basic insurance" risk. If the insured farmers are not encouraged to raise the scale of their contributions, it will be difficult to ensure the basic livelihood of the rural elderly. 2) there is a 21% gap in the personal account pension of the new rural insurance. And this gap has nothing to do with the structure of the population, is the institutional design of the system gap. The new rural insurance needs the government financial continuous subsidy to continue to run. Finally, according to the conclusion of the study, the paper puts forward three reform suggestions on the basic old-age insurance system of urban workers in China, such as appropriate adjustment of birth policy, reasonable delay of retirement policy and gradual relaxation of fund management policy. At the same time, the author also puts forward three suggestions for the improvement of the personal account of New Rural Insurance, such as differential adjustment of payment subsidy policy, gradual relaxation of fund management policy and reasonable delay of retirement policy.
【學位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F842.67

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