本文選題：社會保障　切入點(diǎn)：居民收入　出處：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自2008年以來，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)受了和平時期以來最為嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)很快席卷了整個世界。大批發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體都已經(jīng)進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條期，，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也開始急劇放緩。在金融危機(jī)背景下，我國國內(nèi)需求成為拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)的焦點(diǎn)，而居民消費(fèi)又成為拉動內(nèi)需的重要組成部分。根據(jù)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢分析，我國只有通過擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需來拉升經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。然而，由于我國當(dāng)前社會保障正處于加快建設(shè)階段，相對而言并不完善，造成大多居民為了應(yīng)付養(yǎng)老、醫(yī)療等不確定性因素，而減少消費(fèi)、增加預(yù)防儲蓄，對我國居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生了重大影響。 為了有效擴(kuò)大我國居民消費(fèi)需求，本文以定性和定量分析方法研究社會保障對居民消費(fèi)的影響。分析結(jié)果表明，社會保障對居民消費(fèi)有正的相關(guān)性，完善社會保障能夠刺激我國居民消費(fèi)。為此，論文引入凱恩斯預(yù)期消費(fèi)理論為研究的理論基礎(chǔ)，從我國當(dāng)前居民消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀以及各種影響消費(fèi)因素入手，定性的描述社會保障和消費(fèi)的影響狀況，再結(jié)合相關(guān)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行數(shù)量分析。本文用四部分來論證文章論點(diǎn)。 第一部分闡述近年來國內(nèi)外學(xué)者在這方面的研究，并對相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了回顧和總結(jié)，表明了全文的寫題思路和大致觀點(diǎn)。 第二部分分析我國消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)狀以及原因，通過對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)以及消費(fèi)層次的分析來表明當(dāng)前我國消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)狀。擴(kuò)大我國內(nèi)需、提高居民消費(fèi)，其實(shí)也就是在努力提高居民生活水平，關(guān)系到居民的民生問題。該部分強(qiáng)調(diào)社會保障能夠降低居民預(yù)防性儲蓄，提高居民消費(fèi)。 第三部分從我國當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢出發(fā)，選取適合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論基礎(chǔ)，利用回歸模型研究我國社會保障與居民消費(fèi)的相關(guān)性。選取1996年—2011年中國城鎮(zhèn)居民的養(yǎng)老和醫(yī)療保障數(shù)據(jù)，以養(yǎng)老金和醫(yī)療保險金的支出以及城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的支出為自變量和變量，建立回歸模型證實(shí)社會保障對居民消費(fèi)的影響。從而以理論和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方法論證了完善社會保障能夠擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的必要性。 第四部分在前幾部分基礎(chǔ)分析后，提出促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的建議：有效提高居民收入，改善居民消費(fèi)觀念；繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大社會保障覆蓋面，增加居民即期消費(fèi)；完善社�？ǖ南M(fèi)功能提高居民消費(fèi)；充分發(fā)揮社會保障基金促進(jìn)消費(fèi)增長的作用；同時還建議發(fā)展與社會保障相關(guān)的服務(wù)業(yè)，提高居民生活質(zhì)量；發(fā)揮地方政府財政作用，帶動農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the world economy has experienced its worst recession in peacetime, and the economic crisis has quickly swept the world. A large number of developed economies have entered a period of depression. The economic development of other economies has also begun to slow sharply. Against the background of the financial crisis, China's domestic demand has become the focus of stimulating the economy, while residents' consumption has become an important part of boosting domestic demand. According to the analysis of the current economic development situation, China can only boost economic growth by expanding domestic demand. However, because our current social security is at the stage of speeding up construction and is relatively imperfect, this has caused most residents to cope with uncertainties such as old-age care and medical care. Reducing consumption and increasing precautionary savings have had a significant impact on the consumption of Chinese residents. In order to effectively expand the consumption demand of Chinese residents, this paper studies the impact of social security on residents' consumption by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results show that social security has positive correlation with residents' consumption. Consummating social security can stimulate the consumption of our country's residents. Therefore, this paper introduces Keynes's expected consumption theory as the theoretical basis, starting with the current consumption situation of Chinese residents and various factors affecting consumption. This paper describes the influence of social security and consumption qualitatively, and then carries on the quantitative analysis with the correlation time series data. This article uses four parts to prove the article argument. The first part describes the domestic and foreign scholars' research in this field in recent years, reviews and summarizes the related literature, and shows the ideas and general views of the full text. The second part analyzes the current situation and reasons of consumption in our country. Through the analysis of consumption structure and consumption level, it shows that the current situation of consumption in China is to expand domestic demand and increase the consumption of residents. This part emphasizes that social security can reduce residents' precautionary savings and increase residents' consumption. The third part starts from the current economic situation of our country, and selects the theoretical basis suitable for our country's economy. The regression model is used to study the correlation between social security and residents' consumption. The data of old-age pension and medical security of Chinese urban residents from 1996 to 2011 are selected. Taking the expenditure of pension and medical insurance and the expenditure of urban residents as independent variables and variables, This paper establishes a regression model to prove the influence of social security on residents' consumption, and then proves the necessity of perfecting social security to expand domestic demand by combining theory with demonstration. After the basic analysis in the first few parts, the 4th part puts forward the suggestions of promoting residents' consumption and expanding domestic demand: to effectively raise residents' income and improve their consumption concept, to continue to expand the coverage of social security, and to increase residents' immediate consumption; Improving the consumption function of the social security card and increasing the consumption of the residents; giving full play to the role of the social security fund in promoting consumption growth; at the same time, it is also suggested that the service industry related to social security should be developed to improve the quality of life of the residents; and that the local government should play a financial role. Drive the rural consumer market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;D632.1

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