本文選題：儲(chǔ)蓄率　切入點(diǎn)：家庭儲(chǔ)蓄　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來(lái),我國(guó)儲(chǔ)蓄率居高不下的問(wèn)題日益突出,高儲(chǔ)蓄一直制約著中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)穩(wěn)健發(fā)展。幾乎所有的研究以及數(shù)據(jù)表明,中國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中的儲(chǔ)蓄率要高于世界上絕大多數(shù)國(guó)家和地區(qū)。高儲(chǔ)蓄、低消費(fèi)的特點(diǎn)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)期依靠投資和出口的拉動(dòng),這不僅增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的內(nèi)在不穩(wěn)定性,而且還可能帶來(lái)一系列深層次問(wèn)題。中國(guó)的儲(chǔ)蓄率特別是居民儲(chǔ)蓄率近年來(lái)一直備受?chē)?guó)內(nèi)外的學(xué)術(shù)界所關(guān)注,高儲(chǔ)蓄率的影響因素已經(jīng)成為研究的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。本文主要以生命周期理論、持久收入假說(shuō)和預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄理論為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合中國(guó)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下對(duì)我國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率的影響因素進(jìn)行了理論分析,并使用2011年中國(guó)家庭金融調(diào)查與研究中心(CHFS)的微觀家庭金融數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)穩(wěn)健的最小二乘法(OLS)、可行的廣義最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位數(shù)回歸方法(Quantile Regression)以及相對(duì)重要性分析方法(RI)進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),最后提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。本文的主要結(jié)論如下：收入水平是影響中國(guó)家庭高儲(chǔ)蓄率的重要因素；財(cái)富水平對(duì)中國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率存在顯著的負(fù)向影響；社會(huì)保障對(duì)中國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率同樣具有重要影響；人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)中國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率的總體影響比較微弱。其中,通過(guò)相對(duì)重要性因素分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),不確定性收入是影響我國(guó)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率最重要的因素。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, the problem of high savings rate in China has become increasingly prominent, and high savings has been restricting the sustained and steady development of China's macro-economy. Almost all the studies and data show that, The savings rate of China in the process of economic development is higher than that of most countries and regions in the world. The characteristics of high savings and low consumption have led China's economic growth to rely on investment and export for a long time. This not only increases the inherent instability of the economic operation, but also may bring about a series of deep-seated problems. China's savings rate, especially the resident savings rate, has been the focus of academic attention both at home and abroad in recent years. The influential factors of high savings rate have become a hot issue. This paper is based on life cycle theory, durable income hypothesis and precautionary saving theory. Combined with the development of China's emerging economies, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting the household savings rate in China, and makes use of the micro-household finance data from the China Household Finance Survey and Research Center in 2011. Using the robust least square method, the feasible generalized least squares method (FGLS), the quantile regression method (Quantile regression) and the relative importance analysis method (RI), the empirical tests are carried out. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: income level is an important factor affecting Chinese household high savings rate, wealth level has a significant negative impact on Chinese household savings rate; Social security also has an important impact on the household savings rate in China, and the overall impact of the age structure of the population on the household savings rate in China is weak. Uncertain income is the most important factor affecting household savings rate in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.22

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本文編號(hào)：1581600