本文選題：人口紅利　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：黑龍江作為高資源稟賦的老工業(yè)基地,近年來經(jīng)濟增長略顯頹勢,低生育率與老齡化問題阻礙了其經(jīng)濟增長。如何從人口紅利視角發(fā)揮其對經(jīng)濟增長的積極作用成為黑龍江省實現(xiàn)新東北振興的關(guān)鍵路徑和重要基礎(chǔ)問題。通過對黑龍江1975-2015年人口數(shù)據(jù)的初步分析,綜合現(xiàn)有人口紅利的內(nèi)涵與測算方法,將黑龍江人口紅利的代理變量界定為居民消費、居民儲蓄、總撫養(yǎng)比與勞動力投入。為量化研究人口紅利各個代理變量對黑龍江經(jīng)濟增長的影響,基于內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論通過索洛余值法建立各代理變量對黑龍江經(jīng)濟增長的理論模型,根據(jù)理論模型建立計量模型并結(jié)合黑龍江1985-2015年數(shù)據(jù),運用Eviews軟件對黑龍江平減GDP與黑龍江居民消費、居民儲蓄、總撫養(yǎng)比與就業(yè)人口進行基于時間序列協(xié)整的最小二乘擬合。結(jié)論顯示,勞動力投入、居民消費、居民儲蓄均與黑龍江平減GDP呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,三個變量對平減GDP的影響程度逐次遞減,而總撫養(yǎng)比與黑龍江平減GDP呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系�；谌丝诩t利對黑龍江經(jīng)濟增長的實證研究,黑龍江要實現(xiàn)新東北振興下的經(jīng)濟增長,應(yīng)提高勞動力資源率,完善戶籍制度,合理配置教育資源;完善社會保障機制,加強大健康大醫(yī)療與智慧養(yǎng)老,完善養(yǎng)老金改革;鼓勵居民消費升級,提高品牌效應(yīng)與產(chǎn)品品質(zhì),滿足老齡化消費需求;完善生育政策,鼓勵二胎生育,優(yōu)化人口結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:Heilongjiang, as an old industrial base with high resource endowment, has shown a slight decline in economic growth in recent years. The problem of low fertility rate and aging has hindered its economic growth. How to play its positive role in economic growth from the perspective of demographic dividend has become the key path and important foundation for Heilongjiang Province to realize the rejuvenation of the new northeast. Preliminary analysis of Heilongjiang population data from 1975 to 2015, According to the connotation and calculation method of the current population dividend, the proxy variable of Heilongjiang population dividend is defined as resident consumption, resident savings, In order to quantitatively study the influence of the agent variables of the population dividend on the economic growth of Heilongjiang province, based on the theory of endogenous economic growth, the theoretical model of each agent variable on the economic growth of Heilongjiang Province is established by Solow's residual value method. Based on the theoretical model and the data of Heilongjiang from 1985 to 2015, this paper applies Eviews software to reduce GDP and residents' consumption and savings in Heilongjiang Province. The total dependency ratio and employed population are fitted by least square method based on time series cointegration. The conclusion shows that labor input, resident consumption and resident savings are all positively correlated with GDP reduction in Heilongjiang Province. The influence degree of three variables on GDP decrease gradually, while the total dependency ratio is negatively related to the GDP of Heilongjiang Province. Based on the empirical study of the demographic dividend on Heilongjiang economic growth, Heilongjiang wants to realize the economic growth under the new northeast revitalization. We should improve the labor force resource rate, perfect the household registration system, reasonably allocate the educational resources, perfect the social security mechanism, strengthen the great health care and the intelligent old-age care, perfect the pension reform, encourage the residents to consume and upgrade, To improve the brand effect and product quality, to meet the demand of aging consumption, to perfect the fertility policy, to encourage the second child to have children, and to optimize the population structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127;C92-05

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本文編號：1571987