【摘要】：如何激活二次人口紅利,是當前中國經(jīng)濟應對老齡化面臨的重要問題。文章從微觀層面的人口時間配置和人口收入配置為出發(fā)點,從企業(yè)生產(chǎn)供給視角構建一個以人口為中心的經(jīng)濟運行體系。理論分析得出,人口老齡化分別基于消費結構、勞動力占比和儲蓄傾向三類效應路徑影響人口紅利�；谥袊�2000~2014年分省面板數(shù)據(jù)的實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)人口老齡化抑制經(jīng)濟增長,對人口紅利產(chǎn)生負向影響;(2)人口老齡化對人口紅利影響依賴于平均受教育年限、大專以上學歷占比、人均資本存量、儲蓄投資轉化率、城市化率、二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比和人均公共服務支出。據(jù)此,文章從激勵教育發(fā)展、資本積累、城鎮(zhèn)化戰(zhàn)略、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型和政府公共服務有效供給五個方面,提出了降低人口老齡化對人口紅利抑制的政策建議。
[Abstract]:How to activate the secondary demographic dividend is an important problem for China's economy to cope with aging. From the micro level of population time allocation and population income allocation as the starting point, this paper constructs a population-centered economic operation system from the perspective of enterprise production and supply. The theoretical analysis shows that the aging of the population is based on the consumption structure, the proportion of labor force and the tendency to save, respectively, which affect the demographic dividend. Based on the provincial panel data of China in 2000 / 2014, it is found that: (1) the aging of the population suppresses economic growth and has a negative impact on the demographic dividend; (2) the impact of population aging on the demographic dividend depends on the average number of years of education, the proportion of college education or above, the per capita capital stock, the conversion rate of savings and investment, the urbanization rate, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries and per capita expenditure on public services. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the inhibition of population dividend from five aspects: incentive education development, capital accumulation, urbanization strategy, industrial transformation and effective supply of government public services.
【作者單位】： 云南大學發(fā)展研究院;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金青年項目“城市化進程中的‘適度人口’動態(tài)測度及路徑實現(xiàn)”(12CRK021) 云南省哲學社會科學規(guī)劃一般項目“基于人口老齡化趨勢的云南二次人口紅利研究”(YB2016038) 云南省應用基礎研究面上項目“考慮空間外溢效應的城市適度人口動態(tài)區(qū)間及實現(xiàn)策略研究——以滇中城市群為例”(2014FB115)
【分類號】：C92
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本文編號：2527812