【摘要】：針對人口普查質(zhì)量評估中對普查登記人口名單及其質(zhì)量評估調(diào)查人口名單進(jìn)行比對,以找出二者匹配人數(shù)構(gòu)造雙系統(tǒng)估計(jì)量或單系統(tǒng)估計(jì)量可能出現(xiàn)的比對誤差問題,提出測度比對誤差及對人口普查覆蓋誤差估計(jì)影響的研究目標(biāo)。為實(shí)現(xiàn)上述目標(biāo),采用文獻(xiàn)解讀法,以及吸納國際相關(guān)前沿研究成果的研究思路,研究比對誤差的總差異率、凈差異率和相對誤差率等問題。研究認(rèn)為:內(nèi)含比對誤差的人口普查覆蓋誤差估計(jì)值不能真實(shí)反映人口普查登記工作的質(zhì)量,影響普查數(shù)據(jù)用戶的決策;欲測度比對誤差對人口普查質(zhì)量評估結(jié)論的影響,可從人口普查質(zhì)量評估調(diào)查樣本中抽取子樣本再次比對(評估比對),然后比較評估比對與原始比對結(jié)果的差異;欲測度比對誤差對人口普查凈誤差的影響,可分別計(jì)算原始比對和評估比對的雙系統(tǒng)估計(jì)量,然后求二者之差;欲測度比對誤差對人口普查錯誤登記人數(shù)(或遺漏人數(shù))的影響,可分別構(gòu)造原始比對和評估比對的錯誤登記人數(shù)(或遺漏人數(shù))估計(jì)量,然后求二者之差;在中國開展比對誤差測量工作勢在必行,急需進(jìn)行比對工作的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:In view of the comparison between the census registered population list and its quality assessment survey population list in the census quality assessment, in order to find out the possible comparison error problem between the two matching numbers, the double system estimation or the single system estimation, The research objectives of the influence of measure comparison on error and population census coverage error estimation are put forward. In order to achieve the above objectives, the literature interpretation method and the research ideas of absorbing the relevant international research results are used to study the total difference rate, net difference rate and relative error rate of the comparison error. It is considered that the estimated value of the coverage error of the census with the error can not truly reflect the quality of the registration work of the census and affect the decision of the users of the census data. In order to measure the influence of error on the conclusion of census quality evaluation, we can take sub-samples from the survey samples of census quality assessment and compare them again (evaluation and comparison), and then compare the differences between the evaluation comparison and the original comparison results. In order to measure the influence of the error on the net error of the census, the two-system Estimators of the original comparison and the evaluation comparison can be calculated respectively, and then the difference between the two can be obtained. In order to measure the influence of error on the number of false registration (or missing number) in census, the estimation of error registration number (or missing number) of original comparison and evaluation comparison can be constructed respectively, and then the difference between the two can be obtained. It is imperative to carry out comparison error measurement in China, and it is urgent to carry out the basic construction of comparison work.
【作者單位】： 重慶工商大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué)人口中心;賀州學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：重慶市社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃重大委托項(xiàng)目《人口普查質(zhì)量評估前沿理論研究》(2016WT03) 國家社會科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目《人口普查凈誤差估計(jì)中的三系統(tǒng)估計(jì)量研究》(15BTJ011) 全國統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目《我國戶籍登記系統(tǒng)覆蓋評估研究》(2016LZ29) 重慶高校人文社會科學(xué)研究重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目《人口普查多報(bào)及漏報(bào)估計(jì)研究》(17SKG088) 美國健康研究院及人口統(tǒng)計(jì)和行為科學(xué)項(xiàng)目《亞歐人口普查樣本數(shù)據(jù)整合》(R01HD047283)
【分類號】：C921.2
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本文編號：2486253