發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-21 11:43

【摘要】：文章構(gòu)建了氣候變化影響人口死亡率的面板模型,利用分段函數(shù)方法得到氣候變化的代理變量,采用我國2004～2010年的日平均降雨量、日平均氣溫和人口死亡率的省域數(shù)據(jù),建立了氣候變化影響我國居民人口死亡率的面板模型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),人口死亡率—?dú)鉁厍�呈現(xiàn)U型,并且曲線左低右高,在5～10℃區(qū)間人口死亡率最低,高溫時(shí)病菌等更容易損害人體免疫力和抵抗力,導(dǎo)致人口死亡率增加。同時(shí)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)程度能夠顯著地影響人口死亡率,區(qū)域人均GDP每增加1萬元能夠降低人口死亡率0.1342人/千人,更高的生活質(zhì)量和醫(yī)療服務(wù)條件是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展降低人口死亡率的重要原因。最后本文對模型進(jìn)行了6種形式的擴(kuò)展,發(fā)現(xiàn)模型具有良好的穩(wěn)健性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the panel model of climate change affecting population mortality is constructed, and the proxy variables of climate change are obtained by using piecewise function method. The provincial data of daily average rainfall, daily average temperature and population mortality from 2004 to 2010 in China are used. A panel model of climate change affecting the mortality rate of population in China is established. It is found that the curve of population mortality and temperature is U-shaped, and the curve is low and right high, and the mortality rate is the lowest in the range of 5 ~ 10 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：2412635