【摘要】： 人口老齡化是總?cè)丝谥欣夏耆丝诒戎夭粩嗌叩膭?dòng)態(tài)發(fā)展過程,是伴隨人口再生產(chǎn)類型轉(zhuǎn)變而出現(xiàn)的一種現(xiàn)象,是人類社會(huì)進(jìn)步的表現(xiàn)。本文從實(shí)證主義研究的角度,專門研究了社會(huì)變遷過程中山東省17個(gè)地級(jí)市之一——濟(jì)寧市人口老齡化過程,預(yù)測其發(fā)展趨勢并分析其結(jié)果,以預(yù)見老齡化對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生的影響,提出了相應(yīng)的對(duì)策。 運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究方法對(duì)國內(nèi)外老齡化研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行綜述,本文借鑒了已有的研究成果,尤其在人口預(yù)測方面。評(píng)述了人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論和生命周期理論,并運(yùn)用人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論將濟(jì)寧市老齡化的根本原因歸因于人類社會(huì)生產(chǎn)力的進(jìn)步,使用生命周期理論解釋老齡化對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響以及大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的必要性。 通過比較濟(jì)寧市與山東省人口老齡化變動(dòng)過程,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者的變動(dòng)過程是一致的,老齡化的趨勢越來越明顯;但是在老齡化的各項(xiàng)具體指標(biāo)和進(jìn)入老年型社會(huì)的時(shí)間方面,濟(jì)寧市并不同于山東省。分析顯示,濟(jì)寧市進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì)的時(shí)間比全省晚;老齡化水平比同期全省低;但是老齡化速度比全省快;老年人口撫養(yǎng)比低于全省,而總?cè)丝趽狃B(yǎng)比略高于全省,但仍處于“人口紅利期”。 使用人口預(yù)測軟件(CPPS)預(yù)測了濟(jì)寧市未來20年老年人口發(fā)展趨勢,結(jié)果顯示老年人口系數(shù)和數(shù)量快速上升,老齡化速度加快、程度加深,呈現(xiàn)出高齡化,老年人口性別比升高,老少比、老年人口撫養(yǎng)比和總?cè)丝趽狃B(yǎng)比快速上升,“人口紅利”優(yōu)勢逐漸消失,濟(jì)寧市老齡化的進(jìn)程加快。 根據(jù)前文對(duì)人口老齡化發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的研究,分析了老齡化對(duì)社會(huì)的影響,包括社會(huì)保障體系、不同老年群體的養(yǎng)老問題、現(xiàn)行計(jì)劃生育政策以及勞動(dòng)年齡人口的就業(yè)問題,并提出了相應(yīng)的對(duì)策和建議。 結(jié)論是濟(jì)寧市人口老齡化的趨勢越來越明顯,需要我們轉(zhuǎn)變消極觀念,正確看待老齡化。濟(jì)寧市政府需要充分發(fā)揮政府的主導(dǎo)作用,大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),積極貫徹落實(shí)科學(xué)發(fā)展觀,維護(hù)社會(huì)秩序的穩(wěn)定,采取措施積極應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化。
[Abstract]:The aging of population is a dynamic development process in which the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is increasing continuously. It is a phenomenon which appears with the change of the reproduction type of population and the manifestation of the progress of human society. From the perspective of positivism, this paper studies the aging process of population in Jining, one of the 17 prefectural cities in Shandong Province, forecasts its development trend and analyzes its results in order to foresee the impact of aging on society. The corresponding countermeasures are put forward. This paper summarizes the current situation of aging research at home and abroad by using literature research methods, and draws lessons from the existing research results, especially in population prediction. This paper reviews the theory of population transformation and life cycle theory, and uses the theory of population transformation to attribute the root cause of the aging of Jining City to the progress of human social productivity. Life cycle theory is used to explain the influence of aging on social economy and the necessity of developing economy. By comparing the changing process of population aging in Jining City and Shandong Province, it is found that the process of change is the same, and the trend of aging is more and more obvious. However, Jining is different from Shandong Province in terms of the specific indicators of aging and the time of entering the aged society. The analysis shows that the aging time of Jining is later than that of the whole province, the level of aging is lower than that of the same period, but the speed of aging is faster than that of the whole province. The dependency ratio of the elderly population is lower than that of the whole province, while the total population dependency ratio is slightly higher than that of the whole province, but it is still in the period of population dividend. The population prediction software (CPPS) was used to predict the development trend of the elderly population in Jining in the next 20 years. The results showed that the coefficient and quantity of the elderly population were rising rapidly, the aging speed was quickening, the degree of aging was deepening, and the aging of the elderly population appeared. The sex ratio of the elderly population increased, the old and young ratio, the dependency ratio of the elderly population and the total population dependency ratio increased rapidly, the advantage of "demographic dividend" gradually disappeared, and the aging process of Jining was accelerated. Based on the previous research on the development of aging population, this paper analyzes the impact of aging on society, including the social security system, the pension problems of different elderly groups, the current family planning policy and the employment of the working-age population. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The conclusion is that the trend of population aging in Jining is becoming more and more obvious. Jining municipal government needs to give full play to the leading role of the government, vigorously develop the economy, actively implement the concept of scientific development, maintain the stability of social order, and take measures to deal with the aging of the population.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

中國碩士學(xué)位論文全文數(shù)據(jù)庫 前2條

1 薛慶多;政府應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化的策略研究[D];東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

2 韓云飛;機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老問題探究[D];山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：2385825