發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-10 06:48

【摘要】：本文在OLG模型的基礎(chǔ)上,引入預(yù)期,同時(shí)考慮中國(guó)居民的遺產(chǎn)動(dòng)機(jī),建立了勞動(dòng)收入為“幼稚預(yù)期”和“理性預(yù)期”的三期迭代模型,在理論上分析人口結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響,得到如下結(jié)論：居民消費(fèi)率與少兒撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)成正比,居民消費(fèi)率與老年撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)成正比,居民消費(fèi)率與收入增長(zhǎng)率成正比。 然后,通過收集1995-2009年城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村居民的省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù),建立分區(qū)域(東部、中部、西部)、分城鄉(xiāng)(城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村)的固定面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,并比較各種估計(jì)方法(No weights, Cross section weights, Cross section SUR)的實(shí)證結(jié)果。 在東部、中部、西部分樣本農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)模型中,居民收入增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)率均有正向影響,且在1%的顯著性水平下通過顯著性檢驗(yàn)。少兒撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)率有正的影響,且在1%的顯著性水平有效。但是,老年撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)率只有在西部分樣本模型中存在負(fù)影響。究其原因,中東部農(nóng)村的人口老齡化進(jìn)程較西部農(nóng)村的要快,因此西部農(nóng)村居民的年輕人比例較大,預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)強(qiáng),相應(yīng)的對(duì)居民消費(fèi)率的抑制作用較大。 在東部、中部分樣本城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)模型中,居民收入增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率沒有顯著影響。這也正好解釋了中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期存在的“高增長(zhǎng)、高儲(chǔ)蓄”現(xiàn)象。城市少兒撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率有正的影響,并且在1%的顯著性水平有效。鎮(zhèn)少兒撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率有正的影響,并且在10%的顯著性水平有效。城市老年撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率有顯著的負(fù)影響,鎮(zhèn)老年撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)率有負(fù)影響(西部樣本不顯著)。究其原因,東部城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)遺贈(zèng)動(dòng)機(jī)最強(qiáng)烈,中部次之,西部最弱。人口老齡化對(duì)消費(fèi)率的抑制作用在東部城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)最為明顯。 為了有效的提高我國(guó)各地區(qū)居民的消費(fèi)率,應(yīng)當(dāng)降低東、中、西部地區(qū)居民收入差距和城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距,加快社會(huì)保障制度改革,以有效的降低未來(lái)收入的不確定性,減弱居民的預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)。征收遺產(chǎn)稅作為調(diào)節(jié)財(cái)富分配的經(jīng)濟(jì)手段,可調(diào)高遺產(chǎn)稅的起征點(diǎn),或者開征累進(jìn)遺產(chǎn)稅。另外,考慮適當(dāng)?shù)姆潘捎?jì)劃生育政策,提高少兒撫養(yǎng)比,從而增加居民消費(fèi)率。
[Abstract]:On the basis of OLG model, this paper introduces expectation and takes into account the inheritance motivation of Chinese residents, establishes a three-stage iterative model of labor income as "childish expectation" and "rational expectation", and theoretically analyzes the effect of population structure on consumption. The conclusions are as follows: the consumption rate is proportional to the child raising coefficient, the resident consumption rate is proportional to the old age dependency coefficient, and the resident consumption rate is directly proportional to the income growth rate. Then, by collecting the provincial panel data of urban and rural residents from 1995 to 2009, the fixed panel data model of sub-region (east, middle, west) and urban and rural areas (town and countryside) is established, and various estimation methods (No weights, are compared. The empirical results of Cross section weights, Cross section SUR). In the consumption model of rural residents in the eastern, central and western parts of the sample, the growth rate of residents' income has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and has passed the significance test at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and is effective at the level of 1%. However, the elderly dependency ratio has a negative effect on the consumption rate of rural residents only in the western part of the sample model. The reason is that the aging process of the rural population in the central and eastern rural areas is faster than that in the western rural areas, so the proportion of young people living in the western rural areas is larger, the motivation of preventive savings is strong, and the corresponding inhibition to the consumption rate of residents is greater. In the eastern part of the sample consumption model of urban residents, the growth rate of residents' income has no significant effect on the consumption rate of urban residents. This explains China's long-standing phenomenon of high growth and high savings. Urban child rearing ratio has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of raising children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 10% significance. Urban old-age dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on the consumption rate of urban residents, while town old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on urban residents' consumption rate (western sample is not significant). The reason is that the motive of bequest in eastern urban area is the strongest, the middle part is the second, and the west is the weakest. The effect of population aging on consumption rate is the most obvious in eastern urban areas. In order to effectively improve the consumption rate of residents in various regions of our country, we should reduce the income gap between residents in the east, middle and western regions and the income gap between urban and rural residents, accelerate the reform of the social security system, and effectively reduce the uncertainty of future income. Weakens the residents' incentive to save on a precautionary basis. As an economic means to regulate the distribution of wealth, the levying of estate tax can raise the starting point of estate tax or levy progressive inheritance tax. In addition, consider the appropriate relaxation of family planning policy, increase child rearing ratio, thereby increasing the consumption rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1;C924.2

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