【摘要】：人口作為經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要載體，它的變遷足以帶動(dòng)整個(gè)社會(huì)的變遷。一方面，人口為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供了充足的勞動(dòng)力資源，并在科技、體育事業(yè)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮出人才優(yōu)勢(shì)；另一方面，不合理的人口發(fā)展造成了環(huán)境、資源以及社會(huì)領(lǐng)域公共服務(wù)的“擁擠”和超負(fù)荷，并逐漸影響著人們的生活質(zhì)量，禁錮著社會(huì)長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展的步伐。自濱海新區(qū)開發(fā)開放以來，天津市迎來了戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展的新時(shí)期。科學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)天津市未來人口發(fā)展的規(guī)律，對(duì)于天津人口政策的制定和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)宏觀的規(guī)劃有著重要的參考價(jià)值。 本文運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)法追溯天津人口形成和發(fā)展的過程，并根據(jù)人口普查資料和天津統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒，從人口的規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)、質(zhì)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)就業(yè)四個(gè)方面重點(diǎn)分析現(xiàn)階段天津人口發(fā)展的狀況，展現(xiàn)天津人口發(fā)展的脈絡(luò)和階段性特征，探討影響人口發(fā)展的生育決策因素和經(jīng)濟(jì)及其他因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上確立合理的人口參數(shù)并通過CPPS軟件來預(yù)測(cè)未來五十年天津常住人口發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)。研究認(rèn)為當(dāng)前天津人口發(fā)展蘊(yùn)含的機(jī)遇包括外來人口積累的人力資源、現(xiàn)階段人口紅利帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì)、人口素質(zhì)提升和城市化等，未來人口的發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)包括人口增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)問題、人口結(jié)構(gòu)不均衡特別是勞動(dòng)力短缺和小規(guī)模家庭抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力低等，最后立足天津城市的發(fā)展從人口政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和布局、勞動(dòng)力積累、應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化和糾正性別失調(diào)等層面提出相應(yīng)的措施與建議。
[Abstract]:Population as an important carrier of sustainable economic and social development, its changes are enough to drive the changes of the whole society. On the one hand, the population provides sufficient labor resources for economic development, and in science and technology, sports and other fields to play a talent advantage; On the other hand, unreasonable population development causes the "crowded" and overload of the environment, resources and public services in the social field, and gradually affects the quality of life of people and restricts the pace of the long-term development of society. Since the development and opening of Binhai New area, Tianjin has ushered in a new period of strategic development. Scientific prediction of the future population development of Tianjin has important reference value for the formulation of population policy and the macro-planning of economy and society in Tianjin. This paper uses the literature method to trace back the process of population formation and development in Tianjin, and according to the census data and the statistical yearbook of Tianjin, analyzes the current situation of population development in Tianjin from four aspects of population scale, structure, quality and economic employment. To show the context and stage characteristics of Tianjin's population development, and to explore the reproductive decision-making factors and economic and other factors that affect the population development, On this basis, reasonable population parameters are established and the trend of Tianjin resident population development in the next 50 years is predicted by CPPS software. It is believed that the opportunities for population development in Tianjin at present include the human resources accumulated by the foreign population, the economic advantages brought about by the demographic dividend at the present stage, the upgrading of the population quality and the urbanization, and so on. The challenges facing future population development include the coordination between population growth and economic development, the imbalance of population structure, especially the shortage of labor force and the low ability of small families to resist risks, etc. Finally, the development of Tianjin is based on population policy. The economic development and distribution, the accumulation of labor force, the ageing and the correction of gender imbalance should be put forward with corresponding measures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 田飛;;人口預(yù)測(cè)方法體系研究[J];安徽大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2011年05期

2 李永勝;人口預(yù)測(cè)中的模型選擇與參數(shù)認(rèn)定[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2004年02期

3 劉冉;劉盛和;杜紅亮;繆艷萍;;新區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)型期的人口挑戰(zhàn)與應(yīng)對(duì)——以天津?yàn)I海新區(qū)核心區(qū)為例[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2009年03期

4 荀春兵;;天津人口增長特征和未來趨勢(shì)展望[J];城市;2011年08期

5 凌佳;;人口預(yù)測(cè)常用模型及其比較分析[J];江蘇教育學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2009年03期

6 張霞,原新;天津市人口老齡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果[J];南方人口;2002年01期

7 雷鳴;天津市21世紀(jì)中葉人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)[J];理論與現(xiàn)代化;2005年05期

8 馬小紅,侯亞非;北京市未來50年人口變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)研究[J];市場(chǎng)與人口分析;2004年02期

9 李鷗;天津市人口遷移情況的研究與思考[J];天津行政學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2003年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 張信鋒;北京市城鄉(xiāng)獨(dú)生子女生育意愿比較社會(huì)學(xué)分析[D];中共北京市委黨校;2010年

2 田磊;鄭州市人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及對(duì)策研究[D];天津大學(xué);2006年

3 方建衛(wèi);人口預(yù)測(cè)方法的研究及改進(jìn)[D];成都理工大學(xué);2008年

4 胡亞寧;天津市南開區(qū)人口老齡化問題研究與對(duì)策建議[D];天津大學(xué);2007年

，

本文編號(hào)：2311818