【摘要】：自從馬爾薩斯發(fā)表其著作《人口原理》以來,人口總量與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系始終是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家爭論的焦點(diǎn)。然而自20世紀(jì)60年代開始,眾多發(fā)展中國家同時(shí)經(jīng)歷了迅速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與人口轉(zhuǎn)變,因此由人口轉(zhuǎn)變產(chǎn)生的勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重大的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系便逐漸成為新的研究熱點(diǎn)。理論上講,這樣的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：勞動(dòng)力供給充足,總儲(chǔ)蓄水平高；遂稱其為“人口紅利”。新中國成立以來,我國經(jīng)歷了迅速的人口轉(zhuǎn)變并形成了人口紅利,因此分析我國的人口紅利特征和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng),有利于我國目前進(jìn)一步利用人口紅利發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),并在人口紅利消失后實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文將分析我國人口紅利對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用,并且從人口紅利的地區(qū)差異特性與人口紅利的度量指標(biāo)兩個(gè)方面擴(kuò)展了同類研究。首先本文對(duì)人口紅利產(chǎn)生的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)背景：變化的社會(huì)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)行分析,接著介紹了人口紅利的定義、度量、特征以及變化趨勢(shì),力圖全方位闡明人口紅利,再往下,本文采用增長回歸模型,利用我國分省的面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析人口紅利的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng),回歸結(jié)果顯示理論人口紅利高估了實(shí)際人口紅利,兩者之差反映了我國勞動(dòng)參與率的提高對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的產(chǎn)生阻礙,這個(gè)反常結(jié)論從一個(gè)側(cè)面反映了我國人口紅利的不充分利用情況。接下來,本文對(duì)人口紅利促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的條件、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行闡述。最后,對(duì)后人口紅利時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展做出展望,并提出實(shí)現(xiàn)充分就業(yè)以利用人口紅利的政策意見。
[Abstract]:Since Malthus published his book the principle of population, the relationship between population and economic development has always been the focus of debate among economists. However, since the 1960s, many developing countries have experienced both rapid economic growth and population transition. Therefore, the relationship between the age structure of the working-age population and economic growth has gradually become a new research hotspot. In theory, such a demographic age structure is conducive to economic growth: an adequate supply of labour and high levels of total savings; it is called a "demographic dividend." Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China has experienced a rapid demographic transformation and formed a demographic dividend. Therefore, analyzing the characteristics of the demographic dividend and the economic growth effect of our country is conducive to the further utilization of the demographic dividend for the development of our economy. And in the population dividend disappeared to achieve sustainable economic development. This paper will analyze the role of demographic dividend in promoting economic growth in China, and expand the similar research from the characteristics of regional difference of demographic dividend and the measurement index of demographic dividend. First of all, this paper analyzes the socio-economic background of demographic dividend: changing socio-demographic age structure and rapid economic development, and then introduces the definition, measurement, characteristics and trends of demographic dividend. This paper uses the growth regression model to analyze the economic growth effect of the population dividend by using the panel data of the provinces in China. The regression results show that the theoretical demographic dividend overestimates the real population dividend. The difference between the two reflects the hindrance of the economic growth caused by the increase of the labor force participation rate in China. This abnormal conclusion reflects the underutilization of the population dividend in China from one aspect. Next, this paper expounds the conditions and transmission mechanism of demographic dividend to promote economic growth. Finally, the economic development in the post-demographic dividend period is prospected, and the policy of realizing full employment to make use of the demographic dividend is put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;C924.2

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