【摘要】：江蘇作為東部經(jīng)濟和人口大省,其人口老齡化比全國提前13年,在短短20年間就進入了加速老齡化階段,與發(fā)達國家歷經(jīng)四五十年才出現(xiàn)老齡化相比,江蘇“未富先老”現(xiàn)象突出,這必將對經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深刻的影響。人口老齡化深層原因的探究對解決這一社會命題有著重大意義。已有研究認為,平均壽命的提高和生育率的下降是引發(fā)人口老齡化的主要原因,其中對生育率下降的原因探究是關(guān)鍵。 在總結(jié)前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,首先闡述了影響生育率的各種因素,并構(gòu)建了生育率影響因素的理論模型,通過選取適當(dāng)?shù)慕y(tǒng)計指標,為實證研究提供足夠的理論支持。其次,就江蘇省人口和生育率現(xiàn)狀進行了描述性統(tǒng)計分析,概括了江蘇省的育齡婦女特征,為實證研究提供現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。在理論和現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ)上,通過構(gòu)建結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,利用Amos軟件對江蘇省52個縣及縣級市的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進行擬合,分析了江蘇省生育率各影響因素的影響路徑和程度。最后,基于2000年江蘇省人口普查資料和兩種不同的生育水平,對江蘇省未來人口規(guī)模和人口結(jié)構(gòu)進行了預(yù)測比較,提出了相關(guān)政策建議,并指出研究中存在的不足及有待進一步研究的問題。 根據(jù)上述研究得出的主要結(jié)論有:(1)江蘇省人口規(guī)模位居長三角之首,但未來人口發(fā)展趨勢呈縮減型;新進入育齡期的婦女比重有所上升,育齡婦女受教育程度普遍偏低。(2)計劃生育政策對生育率的影響隨時間推移而減弱,生育水平的空間分布隨經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展水平提高而降低。(3)經(jīng)濟社會因素已成為影響生育率的主要因素,且其滯后期影響大于當(dāng)期影響,經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展水平與生育率的關(guān)系已渡過了倒“U”形的拐點。(4)假設(shè)經(jīng)濟社會穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,按照當(dāng)前的生育水平,江蘇老年人口系數(shù)在2016年將超過少年兒童系數(shù),老年負擔(dān)系數(shù)逐年上升,對社會養(yǎng)老制度提出了嚴峻的考驗。針對研究結(jié)論提出的相關(guān)政策建議有:生育政策應(yīng)進行局部上調(diào);調(diào)整時機選擇應(yīng)避開高峰人口的生育期;適度調(diào)整范圍,應(yīng)根據(jù)經(jīng)濟社會因素對生育率的滯后影響估計出生育率,預(yù)測出該生育率水平下的老齡化程度,依老齡化治理目標確定;加快農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險制度的推行和實施,完善城市社會保障制度,在政府監(jiān)管下推行商業(yè)保險,將民間資本引入養(yǎng)老體系。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu, as an eastern economy and a large province with a large population, has an aging population 13 years ahead of that of the whole country. In just 20 years, Jiangsu has entered the stage of accelerated ageing, compared with the aging of developed countries after 40 or 50 years. The phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" in Jiangsu is prominent, which will have a profound influence on the development of economy and society. The exploration of the deep causes of population aging has great significance to solve this social proposition. It has been suggested that the increase of life expectancy and the decline of fertility rate are the main reasons for the aging of the population, among which the key is to explore the reasons for the decline of the fertility rate. On the basis of summing up the previous studies, this paper first expounds the various factors affecting fertility, and constructs a theoretical model of the influencing factors of fertility, and provides sufficient theoretical support for empirical research by selecting appropriate statistical indicators. Secondly, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of population and fertility in Jiangsu Province, summarizes the characteristics of women of childbearing age in Jiangsu Province, and provides a practical basis for empirical research. On the basis of theory and reality, this paper constructs a structural equation model, and uses Amos software to fit the statistical data of 52 counties and county-level cities in Jiangsu Province, and analyzes the influence path and degree of the influencing factors of fertility rate in Jiangsu Province. Finally, based on the data from the 2000 population Census of Jiangsu Province and two different fertility levels, the population size and population structure of Jiangsu Province in the future are forecasted and compared, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward. It also points out the shortcomings of the research and the problems to be further studied. According to the above study, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the population size of Jiangsu Province ranks first in the Yangtze River Delta, but the population development trend in the future is reduced, and the proportion of new women entering childbearing age has increased. The educational attainment of women of childbearing age is generally low. (2) the impact of family planning policies on fertility has weakened over time. The spatial distribution of fertility level decreased with the increase of the level of economic and social development. (3) Economic and social factors have become the main factors affecting fertility rate, and the effect of lag period is greater than that of the current period. The relationship between the level of economic and social development and the fertility rate has passed the turning point of the inverted "U" shape. (4) assuming stable economic and social development, according to the current fertility level, the coefficient of the elderly population in Jiangsu will exceed the coefficient of children and adolescents in 2016. The elderly burden coefficient rises year by year, put forward the severe test to the social endowment system. The related policy recommendations based on the conclusions of the study are as follows: the fertility policy should be partially up-regulated; the timing of the adjustment should avoid the growth period of the peak population; and the range of appropriate adjustment should be appropriate. The fertility rate should be estimated according to the lag influence of economic and social factors on fertility rate, and the degree of aging under this fertility level should be predicted, which should be determined according to the goal of governance of aging, and the implementation and implementation of rural old-age insurance system should be accelerated. Improve the urban social security system, implement commercial insurance under government supervision, and introduce private capital into the pension system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.2

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