【摘要】：在前人對(duì)生育模式研究的基礎(chǔ)上,作者提出用Logistic函數(shù)對(duì)世界各國(guó)的生育模式展開研究,構(gòu)建了平均生育年齡,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,峰值生育年齡和峰值等指標(biāo)。通過這些指標(biāo),重點(diǎn)考察了發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),發(fā)展中地區(qū)和最不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)近40年來生育模式的變動(dòng)情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)生育年齡在不斷推遲,發(fā)展中地區(qū)和最不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)生育年齡在提前,所有國(guó)家各分年齡生育率普遍降低,他們之間的差異在縮小。究其原因,發(fā)展中地區(qū)和最不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的育齡婦女受到現(xiàn)代化等各種因素影響,生育觀念發(fā)生變化,預(yù)計(jì)生育的孩子沒有出生,所以平均生育年齡和峰值生育年齡提前。發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的育齡婦女受到各種現(xiàn)實(shí)因素的影響,自主選擇推遲生育。進(jìn)一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),生育模式轉(zhuǎn)變是一條道路,發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)走在前面,發(fā)展中地區(qū)和最不發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)走在后面�？偤蜕�2.1為轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),總和生育率大于2.1的國(guó)家和地區(qū),峰值生育年齡和平均生育年齡不斷提前,總和生育率小于2.1的國(guó)家和地區(qū),峰值生育年齡和平均生育年齡不斷推遲。即低生育率國(guó)家,普遍發(fā)生的生育模式轉(zhuǎn)變是生育推遲。低生育率國(guó)家也可以分為兩種類型,一種是總和生育率變化較小的國(guó)家,如瑞典,它生育推遲的發(fā)生是因?yàn)檠a(bǔ)償性生育,20—28歲分年齡生育率快速下降,29歲之后的分年齡生育率卻在回升；另外一種是總和生育率一直快速下降的國(guó)家,如日本,它生育推遲的發(fā)生是因?yàn)榉帜挲g生育率下降幅度不一致,即20—26歲的分年齡生育率下降的比其他年齡快。低生育率國(guó)家的生育推遲并不會(huì)無限推遲下去,在科學(xué)技術(shù)不發(fā)生革命性的變化,人類的預(yù)期壽命不發(fā)生大幅度的提高的情況下,結(jié)合歐洲的一些調(diào)查,作者認(rèn)為峰值生育年齡推遲的極限在30歲左右,平均生育年齡的極限在35歲左右。 文章的最后,作者通過對(duì)已有生育理論的梳理,提出了生育推遲現(xiàn)象的系統(tǒng)性解釋。工業(yè)化、現(xiàn)代化、城市化作為這個(gè)時(shí)代的背景,是生育模式轉(zhuǎn)變的最重要原因,經(jīng)濟(jì)、教育、社會(huì)價(jià)值、人口流動(dòng)、法律政策和自然環(huán)境變化等制度性因素是生育模式轉(zhuǎn)變的最主要原因,他們通過中介變量：初婚年齡、生育能力、避孕措施、人工流引產(chǎn)對(duì)生育模式轉(zhuǎn)變產(chǎn)生直接影響。筆者隨后用聯(lián)合國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)這一理論檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)果與理論吻合的比較好,受制于數(shù)據(jù),許多指標(biāo)無法操作化,盡管如此,回歸方程的調(diào)整后R2高達(dá)0.68,解釋力非常好。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the previous researches on fertility model, the author proposes to use the Logistic function to study the fertility model in various countries in the world, and construct the index of average reproductive age, standard deviation, peak reproductive age and peak value. Through these indicators, the changes in fertility patterns in developed, developing and least developed regions over the past 40 years have been examined, and it has been found that the reproductive age in developed regions is being continuously delayed. The age of childbearing in the developing and least developed regions is advancing, and the differences between them are narrowing as age-specific fertility rates generally decrease in all countries. The reason is that women of childbearing age in developing and least developed areas are affected by various factors such as modernization and so on. The concept of childbearing is changed and the children who are expected to have children are not born, so the average age of childbearing and the age of peak birth are advanced. Women of childbearing age in developed areas are influenced by various realistic factors and choose to delay childbearing. Further study shows that fertility pattern transformation is a road, developed regions are ahead, developing regions and least developed regions are behind. The total fertility rate 2.1 is the turning point. In the countries and regions with total fertility rate greater than 2.1, the peak reproductive age and the average reproductive age are advanced continuously, and the peak fertility age and the average childbearing age of the countries and regions with the total fertility rate less than 2.1 are continuously delayed. That is, low-fertility countries, the common fertility pattern change is fertility delay. Low-fertility countries can also be divided into two types: countries with small changes in the total fertility rate, such as Sweden, The delay in fertility is due to compensatory fertility, which has declined rapidly between the ages of 20 and 28, but has rebounded since age 29; another is in countries such as Japan, where the total fertility rate has been declining rapidly. The delay in fertility is due to inconsistent declines in the age-specific fertility rate, meaning that the age-specific fertility rate between the ages of 20 and 26 falls faster than the rest of the population. The delay in fertility in low-fertility countries will not be indefinitely delayed, without a revolutionary change in science and technology and a significant increase in human life expectancy, in conjunction with some surveys in Europe. The authors think that the limit of peak fertility is about 30 years old, and the average age is about 35 years old. Finally, by combing the existing fertility theory, the author puts forward a systematic explanation of the phenomenon of fertility delay. Industrialization, modernization, and urbanization, as the background of this era, are the most important reasons for the transformation of the fertility model: economy, education, social value, population mobility, Institutional factors, such as legal policy and natural environment change, are the main reasons for the change of fertility model. They have a direct impact on the transformation of fertility model through intermediary variables: age of first marriage, fertility, contraceptive measures and induced labor induced by artificial abortion. The author then tests the theory with the data of the United Nations and finds that the results are in good agreement with the theory and are restricted by the data and many indexes can not be operated. However, the adjusted R2 of the regression equation is as high as 0.68, and the explanatory power is very good.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前7條

1 王廣州;20世紀(jì)70年代以來中國(guó)育齡婦女遞進(jìn)生育史研究[J];中國(guó)人口科學(xué);2005年05期

2 王金營(yíng);1990～2000年中國(guó)生育模式變動(dòng)及生育水平估計(jì)[J];中國(guó)人口科學(xué);2003年04期

3 張志剛;中國(guó)生育率下降及其宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)后果研究[J];人口研究;1994年05期

4 原新;歐盟人口轉(zhuǎn)變與中國(guó)之比較[J];人口學(xué)刊;2001年02期

5 王彥,馬伯強(qiáng);20世紀(jì)80年代以來我國(guó)人口發(fā)展的數(shù)學(xué)模型和展望[J];北京大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2003年S1期

6 喬曉春;對(duì)Г—分布生育模式的討論[J];人口研究;1991年06期

7 謝韋克,黃榮清;中國(guó)婦女生育模型研究[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);1993年01期

，

本文編號(hào)：2276555