日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對消費影響的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-17 11:25
【摘要】：消費一直以來都是經(jīng)濟學研究的重點,隨著莫迪利安尼生命周期消費理論的產(chǎn)生,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)成為影響消費的因素之一被學者予以重視。尤其是現(xiàn)在,隨著世界老年人口占總?cè)丝诒戎夭粩嗵岣?各國相繼進入了老齡社會,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對消費的影響愈發(fā)突出。這篇文章以世界上老齡化程度最高的國家——日本作為研究對象,探究日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變動及其對消費水平和邊際消費傾向的影響,這對于剛剛于2002年邁入老齡社會的中國而言具有重要的借鑒意義。這篇文章系統(tǒng)的梳理了各種消費理論,并結(jié)合已有的研究消費影響因素的文獻,將影響消費的因素概括為經(jīng)濟因素、制度因素、人口因素和環(huán)境心理因素。在對消費理論進行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,這篇文章分別對日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和消費的變動進行了定性分析,闡述了1944~2015年間日本人口數(shù)量和人口結(jié)構(gòu)兩個方面的變動特點,并對日本總消費支出、人均實際消費支出以及消費率的變動進行描述性說明,同時就人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)中各個指標與消費水平、消費率之間的關(guān)系進行初步預測。這篇文章使用1980~2015年間的日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)指標和消費指標構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型(VAR),運用脈沖響應函數(shù)的分析方法和方差分解分析法探究三階段人口比重的變動對人均實際消費支出和消費率的影響方向和影響大小。研究表明,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變動確實會對消費產(chǎn)生影響,少兒撫養(yǎng)比的提高會抑制人均實際消費支出的增長,而老年撫養(yǎng)比和勞動者比重的提高會促進人均消費支出的增長;少兒撫養(yǎng)比對消費率的影響存在不確定性,老年撫養(yǎng)比和勞動者比重對消費率分別產(chǎn)生正向與負向的影響。除消費自身的沖擊之外,短期內(nèi)影響人均實際消費支出的最主要的因素是人均實際GDP,長期內(nèi)則是少兒撫養(yǎng)比。影響消費率最主要的因素自始至終一直是人均實際GDP。從長期看,相比于老年人口比重,少兒人口比重對消費有更大的影響。基于以上研究結(jié)果,這篇文章從經(jīng)濟政策制定、養(yǎng)老政策制定以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等角度,對中國應對并利用好老齡社會提出建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption has always been the focus of economic research. With the emergence of Modigliani's life-cycle consumption theory, the age structure of population has become one of the factors that affect consumption. Especially now, with the increasing proportion of the world's elderly population in the total population, countries have entered the aging society, the impact of population age structure on consumption is becoming more and more prominent. Taking Japan, the world's most aging country, as the research object, this paper explores the changes in the age structure of Japan's population and its impact on the level of consumption and marginal propensity to consume. This is of great significance to China, which has just stepped into an aging society in 2002. This article systematically combs all kinds of consumption theories, and combines the existing literature to study the influencing factors of consumption. The factors that affect consumption are summarized as economic factors, institutional factors, population factors and environmental psychological factors. On the basis of combing the consumption theory, this article has carried on the qualitative analysis to the Japanese population age structure and the consumption change separately, elaborated the Japanese population quantity and the population structure two aspects between 1944 and 2015 the change characteristic. The changes of total consumption expenditure per capita actual consumption expenditure and consumption rate in Japan are described and the relationship between each index of population age structure and consumption level and consumption rate is preliminarily forecasted. This paper uses the age structure index and consumption index of Japanese population from 1980 to 2015 to construct a vector autoregressive model (VAR), using impulse response function analysis method and variance decomposition analysis method to explore the change of population proportion in three stages. Real consumption expenditure and consumption rate of the impact of the direction and size of the impact. The study shows that the change of the age structure of the population does have an impact on the consumption, the increase of the children's dependency ratio will restrain the increase of the per capita actual consumption expenditure, while the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the proportion of workers will promote the increase of the per capita consumption expenditure. The influence of child dependency ratio on consumption rate is uncertain, and the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of workers have positive and negative effects on consumption rate, respectively. In addition to the impact of consumption itself, the most important factor that affects the actual consumption expenditure in the short term is that the actual GDP, per capita in the long run is the child dependency ratio. The most important factor affecting consumption rate has been real GDP. per capita from beginning to end. In the long term, compared with the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of children has a greater impact on consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to make good use of the aging society in China from the angles of economic policy formulation, pension policy formulation and industrial structure adjustment.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.313;F131.3
本文編號：2276506
[Abstract]:Consumption has always been the focus of economic research. With the emergence of Modigliani's life-cycle consumption theory, the age structure of population has become one of the factors that affect consumption. Especially now, with the increasing proportion of the world's elderly population in the total population, countries have entered the aging society, the impact of population age structure on consumption is becoming more and more prominent. Taking Japan, the world's most aging country, as the research object, this paper explores the changes in the age structure of Japan's population and its impact on the level of consumption and marginal propensity to consume. This is of great significance to China, which has just stepped into an aging society in 2002. This article systematically combs all kinds of consumption theories, and combines the existing literature to study the influencing factors of consumption. The factors that affect consumption are summarized as economic factors, institutional factors, population factors and environmental psychological factors. On the basis of combing the consumption theory, this article has carried on the qualitative analysis to the Japanese population age structure and the consumption change separately, elaborated the Japanese population quantity and the population structure two aspects between 1944 and 2015 the change characteristic. The changes of total consumption expenditure per capita actual consumption expenditure and consumption rate in Japan are described and the relationship between each index of population age structure and consumption level and consumption rate is preliminarily forecasted. This paper uses the age structure index and consumption index of Japanese population from 1980 to 2015 to construct a vector autoregressive model (VAR), using impulse response function analysis method and variance decomposition analysis method to explore the change of population proportion in three stages. Real consumption expenditure and consumption rate of the impact of the direction and size of the impact. The study shows that the change of the age structure of the population does have an impact on the consumption, the increase of the children's dependency ratio will restrain the increase of the per capita actual consumption expenditure, while the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the proportion of workers will promote the increase of the per capita consumption expenditure. The influence of child dependency ratio on consumption rate is uncertain, and the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of workers have positive and negative effects on consumption rate, respectively. In addition to the impact of consumption itself, the most important factor that affects the actual consumption expenditure in the short term is that the actual GDP, per capita in the long run is the child dependency ratio. The most important factor affecting consumption rate has been real GDP. per capita from beginning to end. In the long term, compared with the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of children has a greater impact on consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to make good use of the aging society in China from the angles of economic policy formulation, pension policy formulation and industrial structure adjustment.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.313;F131.3
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 丁紅衛(wèi);姜茗予;;論日本青年消費行為與消費意識的變化[J];中國青年社會科學;2016年06期
2 河野文香;周國平;;生活環(huán)境影響日本年輕人消費行為之社會學考察[J];青年學報;2016年02期
3 李夢娟;;日本消費稅增稅改革的效果與借鑒[J];日本問題研究;2016年02期
4 王歡;黃健元;;中國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與城鄉(xiāng)居民消費關(guān)系的實證分析[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2015年02期
5 范紅麗;陳璐;;替代效應還是收入效應?——家庭老年照料對女性勞動參與率的影響[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2015年01期
6 韓若冰;;后現(xiàn)代消費文化與日本角色消費模式的建構(gòu)[J];東岳論叢;2015年01期
7 任棟;李新運;;勞動力年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級——基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù)的檢驗[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2014年05期
8 王云多;;人口老齡化經(jīng)濟效應研究[J];石河子大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2014年04期
9 王歡;黃健元;王薇;;人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變、產(chǎn)業(yè)及就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整背景下勞動力供求關(guān)系分析[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2014年02期
10 毛中根;洪濤;葉胥;;匯率波動與居民消費:基于中國、美國、日本數(shù)據(jù)的檢驗[J];世界經(jīng)濟研究;2014年01期
，本文編號：2276506
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/shekelunwen/renkou/2276506.html
最近更新
教材專著
