【摘要】：摘要：貴州于2003年步入老齡化社會，從進(jìn)入老齡化社會至今呈現(xiàn)出較高的老齡化速度。貴州省1990年至2000年65歲及以上老年人口比重的年平均增長速度為3.37%，2000年到2010年為4.16%。2013年，全省常住人口中，65歲及以上老年人口338.51萬人，占總?cè)丝诘?.66%，比上年提高0.56個百分點。 本文主要分為老齡化理論部分、貴州省人口老齡化發(fā)展特點、貴州省人口總量及人口結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測、政策建議四大部分。采用貴州省第五、六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)及2005年1%的人口抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，對貴州人口發(fā)展過程中老齡人口的特點進(jìn)行深入分析，其中對于貴州省老齡化區(qū)域差異大這一特點選擇了8個影響因素進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析，并以遵義市為例進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)分析,最后選擇聯(lián)合國人口預(yù)測軟件中的PROJCT模型進(jìn)行貴州省未來40年人口總量及人口結(jié)構(gòu)類型的演變過程預(yù)測。 本文主要創(chuàng)新之處：內(nèi)容上對貴州省老齡化問題的地區(qū)差異性從不同角度選擇了八個因素進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析，前人對貴州人口老齡化的研究目前還未涉及這一方面；方法上使用了聯(lián)合國人口預(yù)測軟件中的PROJCT模型，首次將其運用到了我國省際人口的預(yù)測，這對拓寬我們的人口預(yù)測方法有一定借鑒意義。 主要研究結(jié)果：貴州省的老齡化特點主要包括農(nóng)村空巢老人比例大、高齡老人數(shù)量多、老人文化水平低及地區(qū)差異明顯。老齡化區(qū)域差異的主要原因是不同地區(qū)人口自然增長及結(jié)構(gòu)變動的不同，其次是地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的差異，而社會發(fā)展水平對該地區(qū)老齡化水平的影響則相對小一些。遵義市則社會發(fā)展進(jìn)程與老齡化水平關(guān)聯(lián)度最大,其次是人口學(xué)因素,最后是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平。使用聯(lián)合國人口預(yù)測軟件中的PROJCT模型預(yù)測下的貴州省未來四十年總?cè)丝诔氏染徛黾雍笊杂邢陆档内厔�，少年兒童人口比重為漸進(jìn)式下降，勞動年齡人口比重在2020年之前為上升趨勢，，2025年之后基本為下降走向，老年人口比重在預(yù)測年份內(nèi)一直是增加的。人口結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展來看，2010年及2020年貴州省人口金字塔形似于增長型，但勞動年齡人口相對較少，少兒人口數(shù)相對較多；從2030年開始有向穩(wěn)定型過渡的趨勢，到2050年整體趨向于穩(wěn)定型結(jié)構(gòu)，但與基本類型中的穩(wěn)定結(jié)構(gòu)仍有明顯的差異，具體表現(xiàn)為老年人口比重較大且高齡人口比重增加，而兒童和勞動年齡人口比例相對較小�？梢灶A(yù)測，2050年貴州省勞動力人口將面臨更大的撫養(yǎng)壓力，貴州將要應(yīng)對更高程度的老齡化壓力及高齡化難題。未來貴州可從以下幾個方向開展工作以求更有效的面對老齡化問題：一是發(fā)展科技、經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型及產(chǎn)業(yè)升級，吸引勞動力人口流入；二是對現(xiàn)有的養(yǎng)老保障制度的完善，特別是要向逐步實現(xiàn)農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保障全覆蓋努力；三是提高老年人的文化水平，豐富其精神生活。
[Abstract]:Abstract: Guizhou stepped into an aging society in 2003. The average annual growth rate of the population aged 65 and above in Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2000 is 3.37, and from 2000 to 2010 it is 4.16.2013, 3.3851 million people aged 65 and above in the resident population of Guizhou Province, accounting for 9.66 percent of the total population, an increase of 0.56 percentage points over the previous year. This paper is mainly divided into four parts: the theory of aging, the characteristics of Guizhou population aging, the population total and population structure prediction, and the policy recommendations. Based on the data of the fifth and sixth population censuses of Guizhou Province and the data of 1% of the population sample survey in 2005, the characteristics of the aging population in Guizhou are analyzed in depth. Among them, 8 influencing factors are selected for grey correlation analysis for the characteristics of the large regional difference of aging in Guizhou Province, and the corresponding analysis is carried out in Zunyi City as an example. Finally, the PROJCT model in the United Nations population Prediction Software is selected to predict the evolution of the population and population structure in Guizhou province in the next 40 years. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: in content, eight factors are selected from different angles to analyze the regional difference of aging problem in Guizhou Province. The previous researches on population aging in Guizhou have not been involved in this aspect. The PROJCT model of the United Nations population forecasting software is used in the method, and it is applied to the interprovincial population prediction for the first time, which has some reference significance for broadening our population forecasting method. The main results are as follows: the characteristics of aging in Guizhou province include the large proportion of empty nest elderly in rural areas, the large number of senior citizens, the low educational level of the elderly and the obvious regional differences. The main reason for the regional difference of aging is the difference of natural population growth and structural change in different regions, followed by the difference of regional economic development level, while the influence of social development level on the aging level of this region is relatively small. Zunyi has the greatest correlation between the social development process and the aging level, followed by demographic factors, and finally the level of economic development. In the next 40 years, the total population of Guizhou Province predicted by using the PROJCT model in the United Nations population Prediction Software has shown a trend of slow increase and then a slight decrease, and the proportion of children and adolescents has gradually decreased. The proportion of working-age population has been on the rise before 2020, and has basically declined after 2025, and the proportion of the elderly population has been increasing in the forecast year. In terms of population structure development, the population pyramid of Guizhou Province in 2010 and 2020 looks like a growth type, but the working-age population is relatively small and the number of children is relatively large. By 2050, the whole structure tends to be stable, but there are still obvious differences between the stable structure and the basic type. The specific manifestation is that the proportion of the elderly population is large and the proportion of the elderly population is increasing, while the proportion of children and the working-age population is relatively small. It can be predicted that the labor force of Guizhou Province will face more pressure of raising in 2050, and Guizhou will deal with the pressure of aging and the problem of aging. In the future, Guizhou can work in the following directions in order to face the problem of aging more effectively: first, to develop science and technology, to transform the economy and upgrade industries, to attract the inflow of labor force; and second, to improve the existing old-age security system. In particular, efforts should be made to gradually realize the full coverage of rural old-age security; third, to improve the cultural level of the elderly and enrich their spiritual life.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C921

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