【摘要】：利用2004-2014年東北老工業(yè)基地地級城市面板數(shù)據(jù)建立計量模型,實證分析人口變動、人口紅利對經(jīng)濟增長的影響及其區(qū)域差異。結(jié)果顯示:東北老工業(yè)基地通過儲蓄在一定程度上達到了資本積累的目的,還存在一定程度的人口紅利,其中遼寧優(yōu)勢明顯、吉林一般,黑龍江最少。在人口數(shù)量變動中,人口出生率與經(jīng)濟增長有顯著的負相關(guān)性,人口密度與經(jīng)濟增長有顯著的正相關(guān)。在人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動中,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長呈"倒U"型特點;人口性別結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長有顯著的負相關(guān);人口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人口文化結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟增長均有顯著的正向作用;存在明顯的區(qū)域差異。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in the old industrial base of Northeast China from 2004 to 2014, the econometric model is established to empirically analyze the impact of population change and demographic dividend on economic growth and their regional differences. The results show that the northeast old industrial base has achieved the purpose of capital accumulation to a certain extent through saving, and there is still a certain degree of population dividend, in which Liaoning has obvious advantages, Jilin is general, Heilongjiang is the least. In the change of population quantity, the birth rate has a significant negative correlation with the economic growth, and the population density has a significant positive correlation with the economic growth. In the change of population structure, the age structure of population and economic growth are "inverted U" type, the sex structure of population has a significant negative correlation with economic growth, the structure of population industry and the structure of population culture have significant positive effects on economic growth. There are obvious regional differences.
【作者單位】： 湖北師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;中南財經(jīng)政法大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費資助項目(2015BZ0302) 湖北省教育廳人文社會科學(xué)青年項目(16Q162) 湖北師范大學(xué)資源枯竭型城市轉(zhuǎn)型與發(fā)展研究中心2016年度開放基金資助項目(Kf2016y10)
【分類號】：C924.2;F127

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