【摘要】：利用2004-2014年?yáng)|北老工業(yè)基地地級(jí)城市面板數(shù)據(jù)建立計(jì)量模型,實(shí)證分析人口變動(dòng)、人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響及其區(qū)域差異。結(jié)果顯示:東北老工業(yè)基地通過(guò)儲(chǔ)蓄在一定程度上達(dá)到了資本積累的目的,還存在一定程度的人口紅利,其中遼寧優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯、吉林一般,黑龍江最少。在人口數(shù)量變動(dòng)中,人口出生率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)性,人口密度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有顯著的正相關(guān)。在人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)中,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈"倒U"型特點(diǎn);人口性別結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有顯著的負(fù)相關(guān);人口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人口文化結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)均有顯著的正向作用;存在明顯的區(qū)域差異。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in the old industrial base of Northeast China from 2004 to 2014, the econometric model is established to empirically analyze the impact of population change and demographic dividend on economic growth and their regional differences. The results show that the northeast old industrial base has achieved the purpose of capital accumulation to a certain extent through saving, and there is still a certain degree of population dividend, in which Liaoning has obvious advantages, Jilin is general, Heilongjiang is the least. In the change of population quantity, the birth rate has a significant negative correlation with the economic growth, and the population density has a significant positive correlation with the economic growth. In the change of population structure, the age structure of population and economic growth are "inverted U" type, the sex structure of population has a significant negative correlation with economic growth, the structure of population industry and the structure of population culture have significant positive effects on economic growth. There are obvious regional differences.
【作者單位】： 湖北師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)資助項(xiàng)目(2015BZ0302) 湖北省教育廳人文社會(huì)科學(xué)青年項(xiàng)目(16Q162) 湖北師范大學(xué)資源枯竭型城市轉(zhuǎn)型與發(fā)展研究中心2016年度開(kāi)放基金資助項(xiàng)目(Kf2016y10)
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F127

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